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Ajax crestAjax

Eredivisie | Sun 18 Oct, 15:45

Groningen v Ajax Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Groningen and Ajax meet in an Eredivisie clash where both sides have shown attacking intent this season. Groningen ranks 6th with a solid goal-scoring rate, while Ajax sits just above in 5th place, also boasting strong offensive numbers. Both teams have been involved in high-scoring matches recently, with Groningen averaging 2.6 goals scored and Ajax 2.8 per game. Their openness in attack and willingness to commit players forward suggest a lively encounter with multiple goal-scoring opportunities. Defensive vulnerabilities on both sides add to the potential for a goal-rich game at this stage of the season.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Both Groningen and Ajax average 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, indicating frequent high-scoring games.
  • Ajax has a 100% BTTS rate, showing consistent goal-scoring and conceding in matches.
  • The last 10 head-to-head meetings between these teams averaged 3.9 goals per game, highlighting a history of goal-rich encounters.
  • Groningen averages 15.6 shots with 4.8 on target per game, while Ajax averages 26 shots and 8.2 on target, reflecting strong attacking pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 3.5 Goals due to the attacking profiles of both Groningen and Ajax, each averaging over 2.5 goals scored per game and maintaining high Over 2.5 rates of 80%. Ajax's perfect BTTS rate and the high average goals in their recent head-to-heads (3.9 goals) reinforce the likelihood of a high-scoring match. Shot volume and accuracy from both teams further support this, with Ajax particularly prolific in creating shooting opportunities. No data limitations affect , and the offer a small positive , making this an appealing selection for those expecting an open, goal-filled contest.

Groningen Over 2.5 Rate80%
Strong positive
Ajax Over 2.5 Rate80%
Strong positive
Ajax BTTS Rate100%
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Avg Goals3.9 goals
Strong positive
Model Chance vs Implied Chance58% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+3.4 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a dynamic match with both Groningen and Ajax pushing forward aggressively, as recent form and historical meetings suggest multiple goals. Ajax's high shot volume and Groningen's goal threat indicate a lively game where defenses may be tested repeatedly, supporting the Over 3.5 Goals selection.

Main risk

However, Ajax's overall quality and superior direct home numbers should ultimately pull them through on neutral turf.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking pressure

“This fixture features two sides with strong attacking tendencies and a history of high-scoring games, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling choice given the volume of shots and goal involvement from key players on both teams.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both Groningen and Ajax average 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, indicating frequent high-scoring games.

Ajax has a 100% BTTS rate, showing consistent goal-scoring and conceding in matches.

The last 10 head-to-head meetings between these teams averaged 3.9 goals per game, highlighting a history of goal-rich encounters.

Groningen averages 15.6 shots with 4.8 on target per game, while Ajax averages 26 shots and 8.2 on target, reflecting strong attacking pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches between Groningen and Ajax have averaged 3.9 goals, well above typical league averages.
  • This recent trend over a meaningful sample highlights a pattern of open, attacking games with multiple goals, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals trend panel and the higher Over 3.5 Goals selection for this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Groningen2.6
Avg goals scored
Ajax2.8
Groningen1.4
Avg goals conceded
Ajax1.6
Groningen80%
BTTS rate
Ajax100%
Groningen80%
Over 2.5 goals
Ajax80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 55% · edge +3.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Both Groningen and Ajax have high BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals rates, with Ajax scoring and conceding in every match so far. The teams' offensive openness and defensive vulnerabilities create a fertile environment for multiple goals and both teams finding the net, supporting a high-scoring game scenario.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Eredivisie fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Groningen v Ajaxcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionGroningen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Groningen to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
4
Check odds @ 4
Ajax to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (+3.4 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Groningen and 80% for Ajax, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Given Ajax's average of 1.7 goals and the historic high-scoring trend of 4.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Groningen

WWDDL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 2L
11 Oct 2026A Excelsior5-1
18 Sep 2026H PEC Zwolle3-0
12 Sep 2026A GO Ahead Eagles1-1
06 Sep 2026H Twente2-2
28 Aug 2026H Fortuna Sittard2-3

Ajax

DDWWL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 1L
10 Oct 2026H NEC Nijmegen1-1
19 Sep 2026H Excelsior2-2
15 Sep 2026H Willem II5-1
12 Sep 2026A Fortuna Sittard5-1
05 Sep 2026H PSV Eindhoven1-3
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Groningen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Groningen to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
4
Check odds @ 4
Ajax to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Ajax Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Recent form data shows both teams averaging 80% Over 2.5 Goals in their matches this season, with Ajax maintaining a perfect BTTS record. Groningen's 2.6 goals per game and Ajax's 2.8 indicate sustained offensive output, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring encounter based on current momentum and scoring trends.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Groningen Over 2.5
80%Ajax Over 2.5
3.9H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches between Groningen and Ajax have averaged 3.9 goals, well above typical league averages. This recent trend over a meaningful sample highlights a pattern of open, attacking games with multiple goals, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals trend panel and the higher Over 3.5 Goals selection for this fixture.

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