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Grimsby crestGrimsby
v
York crestYork

League Two | Sat 31 Oct, 12:30

Grimsby v York Stats

Data last updated: Sat 31 Oct 2026, 16:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

York arrives in solid form, positioned fifth in League Two with 20 points, aiming to extend their recent positive momentum against mid-table Grimsby, who have 17 points. York's defense is notably tighter, conceding fewer goals on average, while their attack, led by prolific forwards, seeks to capitalize on Grimsby's defensive vulnerabilities. This fixture presents York with an opportunity to strengthen their promotion push, relying on tactical discipline and efficient finishing to overcome a Grimsby side that has shown inconsistency in recent matches.

BT4Y best bet

York to Win

  • York holds a higher league position and better recent form with 20 points versus Grimsby's 17.
  • York concedes fewer goals per game (1.2) compared to Grimsby's 1.6, indicating defensive solidity.
  • Malcolm averages 1.27 goals and nearly 3 shots on target per 90 minutes, highlighting attacking threat.
  • Grimsby averages more shots and corners but has a lower goal conversion rate, suggesting York's defense can absorb pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors York to win based on their superior defensive record and efficient attack, particularly the goal threat from J. Malcolm and support from key midfielders. York's recent form and higher league standing reinforce this edge. The at 2.75 offer positive value against the implied 36.4% chance, reflecting a 13.5% . The model is solid at 65%, indicating a well-supported pick without major data limitations.

Defensive StrengthYork concedes 1.2 goals per game vs Grimsby's 1.6
Strong positive
Attacking ThreatJ. Malcolm averages 1.27 goals and 2.97 shots on target per 90
Strong positive
Recent FormYork earned 6 points recently vs Grimsby's 4
Positive
Value Edge49.9% model chance vs 38.2% implied (+11.7 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

York's tactical discipline and sharper finishing give them the edge in this League Two clash. Their defensive resilience and the goal-scoring form of J. Malcolm underpin in an away win. Grimsby's higher shot and corner counts have not translated into consistent goals, making York the more reliable choice based on current form and player impact.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · York to Win

“York's ability to combine defensive solidity with clinical finishing, especially through J. Malcolm, makes them a strong candidate for victory despite Grimsby's territorial pressure.”

Key Data Signals

York to Win evidence

York holds a higher league position and better recent form with 20 points versus Grimsby's 17.

York concedes fewer goals per game (1.2) compared to Grimsby's 1.6, indicating defensive solidity.

Malcolm averages 1.27 goals and nearly 3 shots on target per 90 minutes, highlighting attacking threat.

Grimsby averages more shots and corners but has a lower goal conversion rate, suggesting York's defense can absorb pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

York to Win notes

  • Over the last four meetings, the average goals per game is 3, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • York's lower over 2.5 goals rate this season suggests a more controlled tempo, with goals likely coming from key moments rather than sustained open play.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Grimsby1.4
Avg goals scored
York1.2
Grimsby1.6
Avg goals conceded
York1.2
Grimsby60%
BTTS rate
York80%
Grimsby60%
Over 2.5 goals
York20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Grimsby averages 1.4 goals per game with a 60% over 2.5 rate and 60% BTTS rate, indicating open games. York scores slightly less but has an 80% BTTS rate, suggesting both teams tend to find the net. This match could see goals from both sides, but York's defensive edge may limit Grimsby's scoring.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickYork to WinBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 38% · edge +11.7 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
York Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 49.9% for York to Win sits against roughly 38.2% implied by the current price (+11.7 pts). York have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Grimsby.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Grimsby

WDLLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
24 Oct 2026A Gillingham4-1
20 Oct 2026A Rochdale2-2
17 Oct 2026H Northampton0-2
10 Oct 2026A Port Vale0-1
03 Oct 2026H Shrewsbury1-2

York

LWDDD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
27 Oct 2026A Barnet1-3
24 Oct 2026H Port Vale2-0
20 Oct 2026H Accrington ST1-1
17 Oct 2026A Newport County1-1
10 Oct 2026H Northampton1-1
Market aligned with main pickYork to WinBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 38% · edge +11.7 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 77%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
York Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
York has collected 6 points recently, showing better momentum than Grimsby's 4 points. York's tighter defense and consistent goal-scoring from key players underpin this form advantage, suggesting they are better prepared to secure a win in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Grimsby Over 2.5
20%York Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over the last four meetings, the average goals per game is 3, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. York's lower over 2.5 goals rate this season suggests a more controlled tempo, with goals likely coming from key moments rather than sustained open play.

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