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Gremio crestGremio
v
Santos crestSantos

Serie A | Sat 23 May, 23:00

Gremio v Santos Stats

Data last updated: Sun 07 Jun 2026, 13:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gremio face Santos in Serie A on Sat 23 May, 23:00. Gremio come in with 5 recent points and 0.4 goals per match, while Santos have 5 points and 1.4 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

  • At 2.38, Cards implies roughly 42%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 75%.
  • Santos have the higher yellow-card average at 3, while Gremio sit at 2.8.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 75% for Cards sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price. Santos have the higher yellow-card average at 3, while Gremio sit at 2.8.

Model chance vs price75% model chance against roughly 42% implied
Strong positive
Santos have the higher yellow-card average at 3, while Gremio.Visible data support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +33 pts
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Cards is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Santos have the higher yellow-card average at 3, while Gremio sit at 2.8. The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Key Data Signals

Cards evidence

Santos have the higher yellow-card average at 3, while Gremio sit at 2.8.

What To Watch In The Data

Cards notes

  • Compare both yellow-card averages before treating the card line as value.
  • Check whether match pressure is likely to create fouls and recovery challenges.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gremio0.4
Avg goals scored
Santos1.4
Gremio0.8
Avg goals conceded
Santos1.8
Gremio20%
BTTS rate
Santos60%
Gremio0%
Over 2.5 goals
Santos60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 60% · edge +2.9 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 23%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 0% for Gremio and 60% for Santos, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 42% · edge +33 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Santos to WinBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Santos Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Gremio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 3.5 Cards is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Gremio2.4
Avg corners for
Santos4.6
Gremio7.6
Avg total corners
Santos9.4
Gremio2.8
Avg yellow cards
Santos3
Gremio9.4
Avg shots
Santos10.8
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 42% · edge +33 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gremio

DLDWL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
17 May 2026A Bahia1-1
10 May 2026H Flamengo0-1
03 May 2026A Atletico Paranaense0-0
26 Apr 2026H Coritiba1-0
19 Apr 2026A Cruzeiro0-2

Santos

LWDDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
17 May 2026H Coritiba0-3
10 May 2026H RB Bragantino2-0
02 May 2026A Palmeiras1-1
25 Apr 2026A Bahia2-2
19 Apr 2026H Fluminense2-3
Best odds for this sectionSantos to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +14.9 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
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Santos Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Gremio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Gremio Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Gremio wins
4Draws
4Santos wins
02 Oct 2025Santos v Gremio1-1
04 May 2025Gremio v Santos1-0
20 Aug 2023Santos v Gremio2-1
16 Apr 2023Gremio v Santos1-0
10 Oct 2021Santos v Gremio1-0
25 Jun 2021Gremio v Santos2-2
Best odds for this sectionSantos to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +14.9 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Gremio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The head-to-head sample gives context for Santos to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Gremio18
Played
Santos18
Gremio1.1
Avg goals for
Santos1.4
Gremio1.3
Avg goals against
Santos1.6
Gremio5
Clean sheets
Santos4
Best odds for this sectionSantos to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +14.9 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Load more odds for this section
Santos Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Gremio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Gremio Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Season data supports Santos to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
15Santos2118567-3
16Gremio2118567-3
Gremio sit in position 16, while Santos sit in position 15, so table pressure belongs in the Cards assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Gremio Over 2.5
60%Santos Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Gremio sit at 0% and Santos sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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