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Greece crestGreece
v
Germany crestGermany

UEFA Nations League | Sun 04 Oct, 19:45

Greece v Germany Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Greece face Germany in UEFA Nations League on Sun 04 Oct, 19:45. Greece vs Germany preview: Group leaders out to frustrate Klopp’s side again. Greece’s unbeaten start and home advantage support scoring exactly once, while Germany’s recent win and attacking options back a single goal.

BT4Y match pick

Both Teams To Score YES

  • At 6/10, Both Teams To Score YES implies roughly 63%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 59%.
  • – Greece’s victory in Germany was their first win over DFB-Team in 12 meetings.
  • Greece have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Germany.
  • Greece sit 2 in the table, while Germany sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 59% for Both Teams To Score YES sits against roughly 63% implied by the current price. Greece have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Germany. – Greece’s victory in Germany was their first win over DFB-Team in 12 meetings.

Model chance vs price59% model chance against roughly 63% implied
Negative
Greece have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points.Visible data support
Positive
Greece sit 2 in the table, while Germany sit 3.Visible data support
Positive
– Greece’s victory in Germany was their first win.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Greece Win is the preferred angle because – Greece’s victory in Germany was their first win over DFB-Team in 12 meetings. Greece have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Germany. Greece carry the stronger scoring threat, but Germany must contribute for BTTS to land.

Main risk

Greece carry the stronger scoring threat, but Germany must contribute for BTTS to land.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams To Score YES evidence

– Greece’s victory in Germany was their first win over DFB-Team in 12 meetings.

Greece have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Germany.

Germany have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded per match, which helps the Greece Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Greece sit 2 in the table, while Germany sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams To Score YES notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Greece1.67
    Avg goals scored
    Germany1
    Greece1
    Avg goals conceded
    Germany0.67
    Greece67%
    BTTS rate
    Germany33%
    Greece67%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Germany0%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 46% · edge +13.1 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
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    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 27%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    UEFA Nations League fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickGreece to WinBet365 guide price · Model 38% vs implied 23% · edge +15 pts
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
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    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 73%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Greece Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
    2.68
    Check odds @ 2.68
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Greece to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Greece

    DWW
    Last 52W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 1D 0L
    01 Oct 2026H Netherlands2-2
    27 Sep 2026A Germany1-0
    24 Sep 2026A Serbia2-1

    Germany

    WLD
    Last 51W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 1L
    01 Oct 2026H Serbia2-0
    27 Sep 2026H Greece0-1
    24 Sep 2026A Netherlands1-1
    Market aligned with main pickGreece to WinBet365 guide price · Model 38% vs implied 23% · edge +15 pts
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
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    Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 65%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Greece Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
    2.68
    Check odds @ 2.68
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    67%Greece Over 2.5
    0%Germany Over 2.5
    3.33H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Greece sit at 67% and Germany sit at 0% with the H2H average at 3.33 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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