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Gornik Zabrze crestGornik Zabrze
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Piast Gliwice crestPiast Gliwice

Ekstraklasa | Sun 18 Oct, 11:15

Gornik Zabrze v Piast Gliwice Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gornik Zabrze leads the Ekstraklasa standings with 25 points, showing strong defensive form by conceding just 0.4 goals per game. Piast Gliwice, sitting seventh with 16 points, have a more attacking approach, averaging 2 goals per match but conceding slightly more. This clash pits Gornik's solidity against Piast's offensive threat, with both sides showing contrasting styles and recent form that suggests a cautious but competitive encounter at this stage of the season.

BT4Y best bet

Piast Gliwice or Draw

  • Piast Gliwice has a 68.1% to avoid defeat, offering strong value at 2.2 .
  • Gornik Zabrze concedes only 0.4 goals per game, indicating a tough defense to break down.
  • Piast Gliwice averages 2 goals scored per match, showing offensive capability.
  • Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, suggesting a moderate likelihood of goals from both sides.
  • Piast Gliwice's recent form and goal threat from key players support the double chance selection.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Piast Gliwice or Draw with a 68.1% chance, reflecting Piast's solid attacking output and resilience away from home. Despite Gornik Zabrze's strong defensive record and top league position, Piast's ability to score and avoid defeat is evident in recent form and player contributions. The of 2.2 provide positive value against the implied 45.5% chance, making this a sensible double chance pick. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Model Chance36.1% model chance vs 21.1% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance36.1% model chance vs 21.1% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge36.1% model chance vs 21.1% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Confidence Level78
Positive
Defensive Strength of Gornik Zabrze0.4 goals conceded per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Piast Gliwice or Draw is a pragmatic choice given Piast's attacking threat and ability to avoid defeat against the league leaders. Gornik Zabrze's defensive discipline is impressive, but Piast's recent form and goal-scoring players provide a strong counterbalance, making the double chance a tactically sound and data-supported pick.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and data-driven rationale for double chance

“Piast Gliwice's balanced attack and resilience make the double chance a compelling option against a defensively robust Gornik Zabrze side. Their ability to create chances and avoid defeat underpins this selection.”

Key Data Signals

Piast Gliwice or Draw evidence

Piast Gliwice has a 68.1% to avoid defeat, offering strong value at 2.2 .

Gornik Zabrze concedes only 0.4 goals per game, indicating a tough defense to break down.

Piast Gliwice averages 2 goals scored per match, showing offensive capability.

Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, suggesting a moderate likelihood of goals from both sides.

What To Watch In The Data

Piast Gliwice or Draw notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals total 1.8, indicating generally low-scoring encounters.
  • Piast's 60% over 2.5 goals rate this season contrasts with Gornik's 40%, suggesting Piast's matches tend to be more open and goal-rich, supporting a trend towards more attacking play and potential goal opportunities in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gornik Zabrze1.6
Avg goals scored
Piast Gliwice2
Gornik Zabrze0.4
Avg goals conceded
Piast Gliwice0.6
Gornik Zabrze40%
BTTS rate
Piast Gliwice40%
Gornik Zabrze40%
Over 2.5 goals
Piast Gliwice60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 48% · edge +3.8 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, reflecting moderate goal-scoring from each side. Gornik Zabrze's strong defense contrasts with Piast's higher goal average, suggesting a match with chances but not necessarily high-scoring. The goal trends support a cautious outlook on BTTS but do not rule out goals from Piast.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gornik Zabrze

WDWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 1D 1L
10 Oct 2026A Jagiellonia3-1
19 Sep 2026A Motor Lublin0-0
15 Sep 2026A Korona Kielce2-0
12 Sep 2026H Lech Poznan2-1
06 Sep 2026A Cracovia Krakow1-0

Piast Gliwice

WLWWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
11 Oct 2026H Widzew Łódź2-1
20 Sep 2026H Pogon Szczecin1-2
14 Sep 2026A Radomiak Radom2-0
04 Sep 2026H GKS Katowice3-0
29 Aug 2026A Motor Lublin2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Piast Gliwice Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Piast Gliwice to WinBetMGM guide price · model 36%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Gornik Zabrze Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Gornik Zabrze to WinBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Piast Gliwice's recent form shows resilience with 12 points and a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, reflecting an attacking mindset. Gornik Zabrze's 13 points and low goals conceded per game highlight defensive strength. This contrast in form supports the double chance on Piast, as they combine scoring ability with the capacity to avoid defeat.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionPiast Gliwice Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
Piast Gliwice to WinBetMGM guide price · model 36%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Gornik Zabrze Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
The 36.1% for Piast Gliwice or Draw sits against roughly 21.1% implied by the current price (+15 pts).
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Gornik Zabrze Over 2.5
60%Piast Gliwice Over 2.5
1.8H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals total 1.8, indicating generally low-scoring encounters. Piast's 60% over 2.5 goals rate this season contrasts with Gornik's 40%, suggesting Piast's matches tend to be more open and goal-rich, supporting a trend towards more attacking play and potential goal opportunities in this fixture.

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