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Girona crestGirona
v
Mallorca crestMallorca

Segunda División | Sun 04 Oct, 20:00

Girona v Mallorca Stats

Data last updated: Wed 28 Oct 2026, 05:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Girona face Mallorca in Segunda División on Sun 04 Oct, 20:00. Girona won the reverse fixture 2-1 and Mallorca have conceded at least twice in seven consecutive away games. Mallorca have conceded two or more goals in seven consecutive away matches, suggesting an open contest at Montilivi.

BT4Y best bet

A home win, draw, or away win

  • At 10/11, A home win, draw, or away win implies roughly 52%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 56%.
  • Contrastingly, Girona remain strong at home, having recently defeated the likes of Barcelona and Villarreal.
  • Girona have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 10 for Mallorca.
  • Mallorca have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the A home win, draw, or away win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Girona sit 4 in the table, while Mallorca sit 7, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 56% for A home win, draw, or away win sits against roughly 52% implied by the current price. Girona have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 10 for Mallorca. Contrastingly, Girona remain strong at home, having recently defeated the likes of Barcelona and Villarreal.

Model chance vs price56% model chance against roughly 52% implied
Neutral
Girona have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points.Visible data support
Positive
Mallorca have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Contrastingly, Girona remain strong at home, having recently defeated.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Girona Win is the preferred angle because contrastingly, Girona remain strong at home, having recently defeated the likes of Barcelona and Villarreal. Girona have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 10 for Mallorca. However, Vedat Muriqi’s elite 21-goal tally suggests Mallorca will likely find the net.

Main risk

However, Vedat Muriqi’s elite 21-goal tally suggests Mallorca will likely find the net.

Key Data Signals

A home win, draw, or away win evidence

Contrastingly, Girona remain strong at home, having recently defeated the likes of Barcelona and Villarreal.

Girona have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 10 for Mallorca.

Mallorca have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the Girona Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Girona sit 4 in the table, while Mallorca sit 7, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

A home win, draw, or away win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Girona2.4
    Avg goals scored
    Mallorca1.2
    Girona1
    Avg goals conceded
    Mallorca0.2
    Girona60%
    BTTS rate
    Mallorca0%
    Girona60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Mallorca20%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 50% · edge +9.1 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
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    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 54%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 27%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickGirona to WinBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 42% · edge +14.7 pts
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
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    Girona Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 44%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Girona to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Girona

    WWLWW
    Last 54W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 1D 2L
    25 Sep 2026H Albacete2-0
    19 Sep 2026A Cadiz2-1
    12 Sep 2026H Castellón1-2
    05 Sep 2026A Sporting Gijon2-0
    29 Aug 2026H Las Palmas5-2

    Mallorca

    LWWDW
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 1D 2L
    27 Sep 2026H Almeria0-1
    19 Sep 2026A Real Sociedad II1-0
    13 Sep 2026H Sabadell2-0
    05 Sep 2026A Eldense0-0
    30 Aug 2026H AD Ceuta FC3-0
    Market aligned with main pickGirona to WinBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 42% · edge +14.7 pts
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
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    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 82%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Girona Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Girona Over 2.5
    20%Mallorca Over 2.5
    2.8H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Girona sit at 60% and Mallorca sit at 20% with the H2H average at 2.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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