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Girona crestGirona
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Celta de Vigo II crestCelta de Vigo II

Segunda División | Sat 24 Oct, 17:30

Girona v Celta de Vigo II Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 08:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Segunda División clash at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi features Girona, resilient at home with eight unbeaten in their last nine matches, against a Celta de Vigo II side on a three-match winning streak. Girona sit fifth with 18 points, aiming to consolidate their position, while Celta de Vigo II, ranked 14th with 12 points, seek to extend their momentum. The tactical battle is expected to revolve around Girona's defensive solidity and low-volume, high-quality attacks versus Celta's patient central build-up and vertical through balls, with both teams aware of the fine margins and historical tendency for draws in this fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Double Chance: Celta Vigo or Draw

  • Celta de Vigo II have won three consecutive matches, showing strong momentum.
  • Girona remain unbeaten in eight of their last nine home games, demonstrating home resilience.
  • Four of the last six meetings between these teams ended in draws, indicating a tight contest.
  • Celta de Vigo II's defensive record is superior, with more clean sheets than Girona this season.
  • Girona rely on quality chances with fewer shots per game, while Celta create more opportunities through central play.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Double Chance: Celta Vigo or Draw with a 72.7% chance, reflecting Celta's strong recent form and defensive stability contrasted with Girona's vulnerability at the back. The historical pattern of draws between these teams and Girona's home resilience supports a cautious approach favoring Celta avoiding defeat. The price offers positive value with a 6% edge over implied , making this a solid selection. No data limitations affect , and the pick aligns well with tactical and statistical evidence.

Recent formCelta's 3-match winning streak and 13 unbeaten in 15 matches
Strong positive
Defensive recordsCelta with 12 clean sheets vs Girona's 4
Strong positive
Head-to-headFour draws in last six meetings
Positive
Home formGirona unbeaten in 8 of last 9 home games
Positive
Price value72.7% model chance vs 66.7% implied (+6 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The Double Chance on Celta Vigo or Draw is a prudent choice given Celta's strong momentum and defensive discipline, combined with Girona's home resilience and historical draw tendency. This selection balances tactical control and recent form, offering a reliable safety net in a tightly contested fixture.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and form analysis

“Celta's patient central play and defensive solidity make them tough to beat, especially against a Girona side that struggles defensively despite home strength. This bet captures the tactical stalemate likely to unfold.”

Key Data Signals

Double Chance: Celta Vigo or Draw evidence

Celta de Vigo II have won three consecutive matches, showing strong momentum.

Girona remain unbeaten in eight of their last nine home games, demonstrating home resilience.

Four of the last six meetings between these teams ended in draws, indicating a tight contest.

Celta de Vigo II's defensive record is superior, with more clean sheets than Girona this season.

What To Watch In The Data

Double Chance: Celta Vigo or Draw notes

  • Over the last five matches, the Over 2.5 Goals rate is moderate, with Girona at 20% and Celta at 40%, indicating a tendency towards lower-scoring games.
  • Combined with the historical average goals and recent tactical setups, this suggests a controlled tempo with limited high-scoring potential, supporting a cautious betting approach focused on avoiding defeat rather than expecting many goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Girona1.4
Avg goals scored
Celta de Vigo II1.6
Girona0.4
Avg goals conceded
Celta de Vigo II1.6
Girona40%
BTTS rate
Celta de Vigo II80%
Girona20%
Over 2.5 goals
Celta de Vigo II40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams show moderate scoring rates with Girona averaging 1.4 goals and Celta 1.6 per game. Girona's 40% BTTS rate contrasts with Celta's 80%, suggesting Celta's matches are more open. The historical frequency of draws and tactical emphasis on control imply a likely moderate-scoring game with goals from both sides possible but not guaranteed.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Girona

WDDWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
18 Oct 2026H FC Andorra2-0
12 Oct 2026A Tenerife1-1
04 Oct 2026H Mallorca0-0
25 Sep 2026H Albacete2-0
19 Sep 2026A Cadiz2-1

Celta de Vigo II

DWLDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
19 Oct 2026H Tenerife1-1
10 Oct 2026H Real Sociedad II4-1
04 Oct 2026A Sporting Gijon2-3
26 Sep 2026H Sabadell1-1
20 Sep 2026A Almeria0-2
Best odds for this sectionCelta de Vigo II Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
4
Check odds @ 4
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Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 86%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 45%
3.09
Check odds @ 3.09
Girona Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Girona to WinBetUK guide price · model 73%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Celta de Vigo II to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 21%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Celta de Vigo II's recent three-match winning streak and unbeaten run in 13 of 15 matches underline their strong momentum and defensive consistency. Girona's unbeaten home run of eight in nine games shows resilience but with a lower points yield recently. This form contrast supports the selection of Celta or Draw as a safe outcome reflecting current team trajectories.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Celta de Vigo II Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Girona Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Girona to WinBetUK guide price · model 73%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Celta de Vigo II to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
DrawBet365 guide price · model 21%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
The 72.7% for Double Chance: Celta Vigo or Draw sits against roughly 66.7% implied by the current price (+6 pts). A finely balanced market reflecting Girona's defensive gaps against Celta's recent scoring consistency.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Girona Over 2.5
40%Celta de Vigo II Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, the Over 2.5 Goals rate is moderate, with Girona at 20% and Celta at 40%, indicating a tendency towards lower-scoring games. Combined with the historical average goals and recent tactical setups, this suggests a controlled tempo with limited high-scoring potential, supporting a cautious betting approach focused on avoiding defeat rather than expecting many goals.

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