Football Stats Hub

Gillingham crestGillingham
v
Newport County crestNewport County

League Two | Sat 03 Oct, 15:00

Gillingham v Newport County Stats

Data last updated: Thu 22 Oct 2026, 23:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gillingham face Newport County in League Two on Sat 03 Oct, 15:00. Gillingham will look to turn impressive home league form into another positive result when Newport County visit the MEMS Priestfield Stadium on Saturday. Gillingham's strong home form with consecutive clean-sheet wins contrasts with Newport's poor away record, conceding eight goals in four matches.

BT4Y best bet

Gillingham to win

  • At 21/20, Gillingham to win implies roughly 49%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 64%.
  • A 4-1 EFL Trophy defeat at home to Cambridge United preceded the York loss, meaning Gareth Ainsworth’s side have conceded seven times across their.
  • Gillingham have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 5 for Newport County.
  • Gillingham have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Gillingham to win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Gillingham sit 7 in the table, while Newport County sit 12, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 64% for Gillingham to win sits against roughly 49% implied by the current price. Gillingham have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 5 for Newport County. A 4-1 EFL Trophy defeat at home to Cambridge United preceded the York loss, meaning Gareth Ainsworth’s side have conceded seven times across their.

Model chance vs price64% model chance against roughly 49% implied
Strong positive
Gillingham have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points.Visible data support
Positive
Gillingham have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
A 4-1 EFL Trophy defeat at home to Cambridge.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Gillingham Win is the preferred angle because a 4-1 EFL Trophy defeat at home to Cambridge United preceded the York loss, meaning Gareth Ainsworth’s side have conceded seven times across their last two competitive matches. Gillingham have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 5 for Newport County. The concern is that their downturn has not been limited to one afternoon.

Main risk

The concern is that their downturn has not been limited to one afternoon.

Key Data Signals

Gillingham to win evidence

A 4-1 EFL Trophy defeat at home to Cambridge United preceded the York loss, meaning Gareth Ainsworth’s side.

Gillingham have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 5 for Newport County.

Gillingham have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Gillingham Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Gillingham sit 7 in the table, while Newport County sit 12, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Gillingham to win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Gillingham2
    Avg goals scored
    Newport County0.8
    Gillingham1
    Avg goals conceded
    Newport County1
    Gillingham40%
    BTTS rate
    Newport County60%
    Gillingham60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Newport County40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7.7 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 74%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 40% for Gillingham and 60% for Newport County, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Gillingham

    LWWWD
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 3D 2L
    26 Sep 2026A York0-3
    19 Sep 2026H Bristol Rovers3-0
    12 Sep 2026H Tranmere2-0
    05 Sep 2026A Rochdale4-1
    01 Sep 2026A Chesterfield1-1

    Newport County

    WDDLL
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 3D 3L
    26 Sep 2026H Grimsby2-1
    19 Sep 2026A Accrington ST0-0
    12 Sep 2026H Fleetwood Town1-1
    05 Sep 2026A Northampton0-1
    01 Sep 2026A Salford City1-2
    Market aligned with main pickGillingham to WinBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Gillingham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.55
    Check odds @ 1.55
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickGillingham to WinBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Gillingham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.55
    Check odds @ 1.55
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 63%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Gillingham to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Gillingham Over 2.5
    40%Newport County Over 2.5
    2.9H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Gillingham sit at 60% and Newport County sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.9 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Loading deeper match data…