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Gillingham crestGillingham
v
Newport County crestNewport County

League Two | Sat 03 Oct, 15:00

Gillingham v Newport County Stats

Data last updated: Fri 02 Oct 2026, 10:39 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gillingham hosts Newport County in a League Two clash where recent form and league positioning suggest a competitive encounter. Gillingham sits comfortably in 8th place with 12 points, showing a stronger attack and defensive record compared to Newport County, who are 17th with 9 points. Gillingham's recent performances include a higher goal output and a tendency to engage in more open games, while Newport has struggled to convert chances. This match offers Gillingham a chance to consolidate their position with home advantage and a more potent offensive setup.

BT4Y best bet

Gillingham to Win

  • Gillingham ranks 8th with 12 points; Newport 17th with 9 points.
  • Gillingham averages 2 goals per recent match vs Newport's 0.8.
  • Gillingham's recent form includes a 60% rate of matches over 2.5 goals.
  • Newport has a higher BTTS rate (60%) but lower goal scoring.
  • Shots on target are slightly higher for Gillingham, indicating attacking edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 73.1% chance for a Gillingham win, reflecting their superior recent form, higher goal-scoring rate, and stronger league standing. Gillingham's attack, led by midfielder S. Kendall with 2.31 goals per 90 and 3.46 shots on target per game, provides a clear offensive threat. Newport's lower scoring and defensive vulnerabilities support the home win prediction. The price at 2.0 offers positive value with a 23.1% edge, making this a confident selection without price warnings.

Model Win Probability73.1%
Strong positive
Gillingham Goal Rate2 goals per recent match
Strong positive
Newport Defensive Record1 goal conceded per match
Neutral
Price Value Edge65% model chance vs 50% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Shots on Target ComparisonGillingham 3.6 vs Newport 3.0
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Gillingham's superior attacking form and home advantage make them the likely winners in this League Two fixture. Their ability to create and convert chances, especially through key players like S. Kendall, combined with Newport County's lower scoring output, underpins this confident prediction.

Main risk

The concern is that their downturn has not been limited to one afternoon.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and player impact

“Gillingham's midfield dynamism and goal threat, particularly from S. Kendall, should unlock Newport's defense, making a home win the most plausible outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Gillingham to Win evidence

Gillingham ranks 8th with 12 points; Newport 17th with 9 points.

Gillingham averages 2 goals per recent match vs Newport's 0.8.

Gillingham's recent form includes a 60% rate of matches over 2.5 goals.

Newport has a higher BTTS rate (60%) but lower goal scoring.

What To Watch In The Data

Gillingham to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.9, suggesting a moderately high-scoring fixture historically.
  • Gillingham's recent matches have a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, supporting the trend for open play and multiple goals.
  • This trend aligns with the expectation of an attacking game with chances for both sides, though Gillingham's firepower is likely decisive.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gillingham2
Avg goals scored
Newport County0.8
Gillingham1
Avg goals conceded
Newport County1
Gillingham40%
BTTS rate
Newport County60%
Gillingham60%
Over 2.5 goals
Newport County40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Gillingham's recent matches show a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals, indicating open play and attacking intent. Newport's 60% BTTS rate suggests they often concede and score, but their lower goal average points to less consistent finishing. This match could see goals, but Gillingham's stronger attack likely dominates the scoring.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gillingham

LWWWD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 2L
26 Sep 2026A York0-3
19 Sep 2026H Bristol Rovers3-0
12 Sep 2026H Tranmere2-0
05 Sep 2026A Rochdale4-1
01 Sep 2026A Chesterfield1-1

Newport County

WDDLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 3L
26 Sep 2026H Grimsby2-1
19 Sep 2026A Accrington ST0-0
12 Sep 2026H Fleetwood Town1-1
05 Sep 2026A Northampton0-1
01 Sep 2026A Salford City1-2
Market aligned with main pickGillingham to WinBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Gillingham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Gillingham's recent form is stronger, with 10 points gained compared to Newport's 5 in the same period. Their higher goal scoring and better defensive record reflect a team in good rhythm, capable of controlling matches. Newport's form shows defensive solidity but limited offensive output, which may hinder their ability to challenge Gillingham effectively.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGillingham to WinBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Gillingham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The 65% for Gillingham to Win sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Gillingham have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 5 for Newport County. A 4-1 EFL Trophy defeat at home to Cambridge United preceded the York loss, meaning Gareth Ainsworth’s side have conceded seven times across their.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Gillingham Over 2.5
40%Newport County Over 2.5
2.9H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.9, suggesting a moderately high-scoring fixture historically. Gillingham's recent matches have a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, supporting the trend for open play and multiple goals. This trend aligns with the expectation of an attacking game with chances for both sides, though Gillingham's firepower is likely decisive.

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