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Gillingham crestGillingham
v
Millwall crestMillwall

Friendlies Clubs | Tue 21 Jul, 19:00

Gillingham v Millwall Stats

Data last updated: Mon 20 Jul 2026, 04:13 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gillingham face Millwall in Friendlies Clubs on Tue 21 Jul, 19:00. Gillingham welcome Millwall to the MEMS Priestfield Stadium for their final home friendly before the new season, with both teams searching for greater sharpness after mixed pre-season results. Millwall's historical wins and Gillingham's goals conceded support a narrow away victory prediction.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2

  • At 4, Over 2 implies roughly 25%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 40%.
  • Gillingham's defensive vulnerabilities, compounded by injuries including their first-choice goalkeeper, contrast with Millwall's attacking potency featuring new signings and energetic forwards.
  • Gillingham have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Over 2 angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 40% for Over 2 sits against roughly 25% implied by the current price. Gillingham have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Over 2 angle more than a raw possession edge. Gillingham's defensive vulnerabilities, compounded by injuries including their first-choice goalkeeper, contrast with Millwall's attacking potency featuring new signings and energetic forwards.

Model chance vs price40% model chance against roughly 25% implied
Strong positive
Gillingham have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Gillingham's defensive vulnerabilities, compounded by injuries including their first-choice.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Gillingham Win is the preferred angle because gillingham's defensive vulnerabilities, compounded by injuries including their first-choice goalkeeper, contrast with Millwall's attacking potency featuring new signings and energetic forwards. Gillingham have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Gillingham Win angle more than a raw possession edge. Millwall carry the stronger scoring threat, but Gillingham must contribute for BTTS to land.

Main risk

Millwall carry the stronger scoring threat, but Gillingham must contribute for BTTS to land.

Key Data Signals

Over 2 evidence

Gillingham's defensive vulnerabilities, compounded by injuries including their first-choice goalkeeper, contrast with Millwall's attacking potency featuring new signings.

Gillingham have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Gillingham Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2 notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Gillingham1.5
    Avg goals scored
    Millwall1.5
    Gillingham0.5
    Avg goals conceded
    Millwall1.5
    Gillingham0%
    BTTS rate
    Millwall100%
    Gillingham50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Millwall100%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 84% vs implied 81% · edge +3.1 pts
    1.24
    Check odds @ 1.24
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
    2.85
    Check odds @ 2.85
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 1.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 50% for Gillingham and 100% for Millwall, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickGillingham to WinBetfred guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Gillingham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Gillingham to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Gillingham

    LW
    Last 51W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 1L
    18 Jul 2026H Charlton0-1
    14 Jul 2026A Dover3-0

    Millwall

    WL
    Last 51W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 1L
    17 Jul 2026A Eldense2-1
    14 Jul 2026A FC Andorra1-2
    Market aligned with main pickGillingham to WinBetfred guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
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    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 63%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Gillingham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Gillingham wins
    4Draws
    4Millwall wins
    13 Jul 2024Gillingham v Millwall0-0
    15 Jul 2023Gillingham v Millwall0-2
    27 Jul 2021Gillingham v Millwall1-1
    14 Aug 2018Millwall v Gillingham0-0
    08 Apr 2017Gillingham v Millwall1-1
    30 Dec 2016Millwall v Gillingham2-1
    Market aligned with main pickGillingham to WinBetfred guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Gillingham to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Friendlies Clubs

    Gillingham4
    Played
    Millwall6
    Gillingham1.5
    Avg goals for
    Millwall0.8
    Gillingham0.5
    Avg goals against
    Millwall1
    Gillingham2
    Clean sheets
    Millwall1
    Market aligned with main pickGillingham to WinBetfred guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Load more odds for this section
    Gillingham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Season data supports Gillingham to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    50%Gillingham Over 2.5
    100%Millwall Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Gillingham sit at 50% and Millwall sit at 100% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.