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GIL Vicente crestGIL Vicente
v
Arouca crestArouca

Primeira Liga | Mon 11 May, 20:15

GIL Vicente v Arouca Stats

Data last updated: Wed 24 Jun 2026, 11:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

GIL Vicente face Arouca in Primeira Liga on Mon 11 May, 20:15. They face an Arouca side that has struggled significantly on the road, losing five of their last six away league fixtures while conceding heavily throughout the season. Gil Vicente have a strong home record with nine victories in Barcelos this term.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Gil Vicente to Win Gil Vicente enter this penultimate round with their European qualification hopes still mathematically alive

  • At 8/13, GIL Vicente Win implies roughly 62%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 50%.
  • Arouca’s defensive record of 62 goals conceded suggests Gil Vicente will find scoring opportunities fairly easy to come by.
  • GIL Vicente have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Arouca.
  • GIL Vicente have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the GIL Vicente Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • GIL Vicente sit 6 in the table, while Arouca sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Gil Vicente to Win Gil Vicente enter this penultimate round with their European qualification hopes still mathematically alive is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 62% while the model sits nearer 50% (-11.7 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +33.9 pts edge at 3.4.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 50% for GIL Vicente Win sits against roughly 62% implied by the current price. GIL Vicente have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Arouca. Arouca’s defensive record of that scoring level conceded suggests Gil Vicente will find scoring opportunities fairly easy to come by.

Model chance vs price50% model chance against roughly 62% implied
Negative
GIL Vicente have the stronger recent points return, taking 8.Visible data support
Positive
GIL Vicente have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Arouca’s defensive record of 62 goals conceded suggests Gil.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: GIL Vicente Win is the preferred angle because arouca’s defensive record of that scoring level conceded suggests Gil Vicente will find scoring opportunities fairly easy to come by. GIL Vicente have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Arouca. A high draw count reflects a side that is difficult to break down but often struggles to secure the final result.

Main risk

A high draw count reflects a side that is difficult to break down but often struggles to secure the final result.

Key Data Signals

GIL Vicente Win evidence

Arouca’s defensive record of 62 goals conceded suggests Gil Vicente will find scoring opportunities fairly easy to come.

GIL Vicente have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Arouca.

GIL Vicente have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the GIL Vicente Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

GIL Vicente sit 6 in the table, while Arouca sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

GIL Vicente Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    GIL Vicente5.8
    Avg corners for
    Arouca4
    GIL Vicente10
    Avg total corners
    Arouca8.8
    GIL Vicente2.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Arouca3.8
    GIL Vicente13.4
    Avg shots
    Arouca11
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 53% · edge +3.7 pts
    1.88
    Check odds @ 1.88
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    Primeira Liga fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for GIL Vicente v Aroucacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    GIL Vicente1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Arouca1.4
    GIL Vicente0.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Arouca1.4
    GIL Vicente40%
    BTTS rate
    Arouca60%
    GIL Vicente60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Arouca60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 29% · edge +33.9 pts
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 80%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 41%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickGIL Vicente to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 59% · edge -8.6 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    GIL Vicente Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    GIL Vicente to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    GIL Vicente

    DWLDW
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 4D 4L
    03 May 2026A Rio Ave0-0
    27 Apr 2026H Casa Pia2-1
    18 Apr 2026H Guimaraes0-1
    13 Apr 2026A Tondela2-2
    03 Apr 2026H AVS3-0

    Arouca

    DLWLW
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 1D 5L
    02 May 2026H Santa Clara2-2
    24 Apr 2026A Alverca1-2
    19 Apr 2026H Estrela1-0
    12 Apr 2026A SC Braga0-1
    06 Apr 2026H Estoril3-2
    Market aligned with main pickGIL Vicente to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 59% · edge -8.6 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    GIL Vicente Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0GIL Vicente wins
    6Draws
    4Arouca wins
    28 Dec 2025Arouca v GIL Vicente2-2
    10 May 2025GIL Vicente v Arouca1-1
    27 Dec 2024Arouca v GIL Vicente1-1
    26 Apr 2024GIL Vicente v Arouca2-2
    16 Dec 2023Arouca v GIL Vicente3-0
    05 Feb 2023GIL Vicente v Arouca1-1
    Market aligned with main pickGIL Vicente to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 59% · edge -8.6 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    The head-to-head sample gives context for GIL Vicente to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Primeira Liga

    GIL Vicente34
    Played
    Arouca34
    GIL Vicente1.4
    Avg goals for
    Arouca1.4
    GIL Vicente1.1
    Avg goals against
    Arouca1.9
    GIL Vicente12
    Clean sheets
    Arouca7
    Market aligned with main pickGIL Vicente to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 59% · edge -8.6 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    GIL Vicente Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Season data supports GIL Vicente to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    6GIL Vicente50341311109
    8Arouca423412616-17
    GIL Vicente sit in position 6, while Arouca sit in position 8, so table pressure belongs in the GIL Vicente Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%GIL Vicente Over 2.5
    60%Arouca Over 2.5
    2.8H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: GIL Vicente sit at 60% and Arouca sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    GIL Vicente v Arouca prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Betting context

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