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Gais crestGais
v
IF Elfsborg crestIF Elfsborg

Allsvenskan | Sun 12 Jul, 15:30

Gais v IF Elfsborg Stats

Data last updated: Sat 11 Jul 2026, 04:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gais hosts IF Elfsborg in an Allsvenskan clash where both teams seek to consolidate their mid-table positions. Gais have shown solid defensive resilience recently, conceding fewer goals and earning more points per game than Elfsborg, who have struggled to convert chances consistently. The home side's tactical setup emphasizes controlled possession and disciplined defending, aiming to exploit Elfsborg's occasional defensive lapses. With Gais enjoying a slight form edge and playing at home, the match promises a tactical battle with Gais favored to secure all three points.

BT4Y best bet

Gais to Win

  • Gais have earned 8 points recently, outperforming Elfsborg's 4 points in the same period.
  • Gais concede only 0.8 goals per game compared to Elfsborg's 1.4, indicating stronger defensive stability.
  • Gais average 15.6 shots per game with 4.6 on target, showing greater attacking intent than Elfsborg.
  • Elfsborg have a 100% BTTS rate recently, but Gais' defensive discipline may limit goals conceded.
  • Gais rank 6th with 16 points, slightly behind Elfsborg's 4th place and 18 points, adding competitive motivation.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Gais to win with a 65.8% chance based on their superior recent form, better defensive record, and higher attacking output at home. Gais' ability to limit goals conceded to 0.8 per game contrasts with Elfsborg's 1.4, while Gais also generate more shots and shots on target, indicating more sustained pressure. Although Elfsborg have a perfect BTTS rate recently, Gais' defensive solidity and home advantage provide a strong football read for victory. No price warnings apply, and data quality is solid for both sides.

Recent form pointsGais 8 vs Elfsborg 4
Strong positive
Goals conceded per gameGais 0.8 vs Elfsborg 1.4
Strong positive
Shots per gameGais 15.6 vs Elfsborg 11.4
Positive
BTTS rateGais 60% vs Elfsborg 100%
Neutral
Model confidence65.8% chance for Gais
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Gais' recent form and defensive discipline at home give them a tactical edge over Elfsborg, who have struggled for consistency. The home side's higher shot volume and better defensive record suggest they can control the game and secure victory. This pick balances tactical solidity with statistical support for a home win.

Main risk

The main risk is Elfsborg's recent tendency to score in every match, which could challenge Gais' defense and reduce the chance of a clean sheet or low-scoring game.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Gais demonstrate a balanced approach combining solid defense with effective attacking pressure, making them the logical choice to capitalize on Elfsborg's defensive vulnerabilities in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Gais to Win evidence

Gais have earned 8 points recently, outperforming Elfsborg's 4 points in the same period.

Gais concede only 0.8 goals per game compared to Elfsborg's 1.4, indicating stronger defensive stability.

Gais average 15.6 shots per game with 4.6 on target, showing greater attacking intent than Elfsborg.

Elfsborg have a 100% BTTS rate recently, but Gais' defensive discipline may limit goals conceded.

What To Watch In The Data

Gais to Win notes

  • In the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.43, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals recently, suggesting a balanced tempo.
  • The trend points to a match with controlled attacking phases rather than a high-scoring encounter.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Gais7.33
Avg corners for
IF Elfsborg8
Gais10.33
Avg total corners
IF Elfsborg10
Gais1.67
Avg yellow cards
IF Elfsborg1
Gais17.67
Avg shots
IF Elfsborg13
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 58% · edge +11.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Gais average more corners (5.6) and shots (15.6) per game than Elfsborg, indicating territorial control and sustained pressure. Elfsborg's lower corners and shots suggest fewer attacking incursions. Card-wise, Gais accumulate more yellows, reflecting a combative style that could disrupt Elfsborg's rhythm and affect game flow.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gais1.6
Avg goals scored
IF Elfsborg1.2
Gais0.8
Avg goals conceded
IF Elfsborg1.4
Gais60%
BTTS rate
IF Elfsborg100%
Gais40%
Over 2.5 goals
IF Elfsborg40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 56% · edge +20.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Despite Elfsborg's 100% recent BTTS rate, Gais' disciplined defense and lower goals conceded per game suggest a controlled goals environment. The match is likely to feature limited scoring opportunities for Elfsborg, making a BTTS No or low-scoring outcome plausible, aligning with Gais' tactical approach to contain threats.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGais to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 53% · edge +13.2 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Gais Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The market for Gais to win reflects their strong recent form and home advantage. While no explicit are provided, the model's 65.8% win probability suggests this is a solid selection without major price sensitivity or value concerns. The betting angle is supported by Gais' superior defensive and attacking metrics compared to Elfsborg.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gais

DWLWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
06 Jul 2026A IF Brommapojkarna1-1
30 May 2026H Kalmar FF3-0
24 May 2026A Sirius1-2
20 May 2026H Hammarby FF2-0
16 May 2026H Degerfors IF1-1

IF Elfsborg

LDDDD
Last 50W 4D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 2L
05 Jul 2026H Hammarby FF1-2
29 May 2026A Orgryte IS2-2
25 May 2026H BK Hacken1-1
21 May 2026H Mjallby AIF1-1
16 May 2026A Halmstad1-1
Market aligned with main pickGais to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 53% · edge +13.2 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Gais Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Gais have collected 8 points recently, showing better momentum than Elfsborg's 4 points. Their defensive solidity, conceding only 0.8 goals per game, contrasts with Elfsborg's 1.4, indicating Gais are harder to break down. This recent form advantage supports in Gais securing a home win.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Gais wins
0Draws
0IF Elfsborg wins
Market aligned with main pickGais to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 53% · edge +13.2 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The seven previous meetings between Gais and Elfsborg have averaged 2.43 goals per game, reflecting moderately competitive encounters. While the sample size is limited, the data suggests neither side dominates heavily, supporting a cautious approach to expecting a tight match with potential for a narrow Gais win.
Season team stats

Allsvenskan

Gais12
Played
IF Elfsborg12
Gais1.4
Avg goals for
IF Elfsborg1.4
Gais1
Avg goals against
IF Elfsborg1.1
Gais5
Clean sheets
IF Elfsborg3
Market aligned with main pickGais to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 53% · edge +13.2 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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Gais Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over the season, Gais maintain a stronger defensive record and higher attacking output at home, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Elfsborg's 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded reflect a less stable defensive setup. These season-long stats reinforce Gais' suitability for a win in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Gais Over 2.5
40%IF Elfsborg Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
In the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.43, indicating moderate scoring. Both teams have a 40% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals recently, suggesting a balanced tempo. The trend points to a match with controlled attacking phases rather than a high-scoring encounter.

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Fixture links

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