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Aston Villa crestAston Villa

Premier League | Sat 25 Apr, 12:30

Fulham v Aston Villa Stats

Data last updated: Sun 14 Jun 2026, 10:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fulham face Aston Villa in Premier League on Sat 25 Apr, 12:30. Villa have scored at least twice in each of their recent wins, while Fulham are due an attacking reaction at home. Villa’s attacking midfield behind him — filled with energy, creativity, and direct running — only amplifies that threat.

BT4Y best bet

Ing one of three outcomes: a home win, a draw, or an away win

  • At 13/10, Aston Villa Win implies roughly 44%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 51%.
  • Villa have scored 16 goals in their last six, and their defensive record suggests goals at both ends.
  • Aston Villa have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Fulham.
  • Fulham have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Aston Villa Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Fulham sit 11 in the table, while Aston Villa sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 51% for Aston Villa Win sits against roughly 44% implied by the current price. Aston Villa have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Fulham. Villa have scored that scoring level in their last six, and their defensive record suggests goals at both ends.

Model chance vs price51% model chance against roughly 44% implied
Positive
Aston Villa have the stronger recent points return, taking 7.Visible data support
Positive
Fulham have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Villa have scored 16 goals in their last six.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Aston Villa Win is the preferred angle because villa have scored that scoring level in their last six, and their defensive record suggests goals at both ends. Aston Villa have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Fulham. Sixteen goals across their last six matches paints a vivid picture — this is a side not just winning games, but imposing themselves on them.

Main risk

Sixteen goals across their last six matches paints a vivid picture — this is a side not just winning games, but imposing themselves on them.

Key Data Signals

Aston Villa Win evidence

Villa have scored 16 goals in their last six, and their defensive record suggests goals at both ends.

Aston Villa have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Fulham.

Fulham have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Aston Villa Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Fulham sit 11 in the table, while Aston Villa sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Aston Villa Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Fulham0.6
    Avg goals scored
    Aston Villa1.8
    Fulham0.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Aston Villa2.2
    Fulham20%
    BTTS rate
    Aston Villa80%
    Fulham20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Aston Villa60%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 17% · edge +38.4 pts
    6
    Check odds @ 6
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    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 31%
    10
    Check odds @ 10
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 44%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAston Villa to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 38% · edge +13.2 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Aston Villa Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 61%
    2.02
    Check odds @ 2.02
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Aston Villa to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Premier League hubfull betting preview for Fulham v Aston Villacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Fulham5.6
    Avg corners for
    Aston Villa4.4
    Fulham11.8
    Avg total corners
    Aston Villa10.8
    Fulham1.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Aston Villa1.6
    Fulham14
    Avg shots
    Aston Villa13.6
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 56% · edge +3.2 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Fulham

    DLWDL
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 5L
    18 Apr 2026A Brentford0-0
    11 Apr 2026A Liverpool0-2
    21 Mar 2026H Burnley3-1
    15 Mar 2026A Nottingham Forest0-0
    04 Mar 2026H West Ham0-1

    Aston Villa

    WDWLL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 3D 4L
    19 Apr 2026H Sunderland4-3
    12 Apr 2026A Nottingham Forest1-1
    22 Mar 2026H West Ham2-0
    15 Mar 2026A Manchester United1-3
    04 Mar 2026H Chelsea1-4
    Market aligned with main pickAston Villa to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 38% · edge +13.2 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Aston Villa Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 61%
    2.02
    Check odds @ 2.02
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Fulham wins
    0Draws
    9Aston Villa wins
    28 Sep 2025Aston Villa v Fulham3-1
    03 May 2025Aston Villa v Fulham1-0
    19 Oct 2024Fulham v Aston Villa1-3
    17 Feb 2024Fulham v Aston Villa1-2
    12 Nov 2023Aston Villa v Fulham3-1
    27 Jul 2023Fulham v Aston Villa0-2
    Market aligned with main pickAston Villa to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 38% · edge +13.2 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Aston Villa to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Fulham38
    Played
    Aston Villa38
    Fulham1.2
    Avg goals for
    Aston Villa1.5
    Fulham1.3
    Avg goals against
    Aston Villa1.3
    Fulham9
    Clean sheets
    Aston Villa9
    Market aligned with main pickAston Villa to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 38% · edge +13.2 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Aston Villa Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 61%
    2.02
    Check odds @ 2.02
    Season data supports Aston Villa to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    4Aston Villa6538198117
    11Fulham523815716-4
    Fulham sit in position 11, while Aston Villa sit in position 4, so table pressure belongs in the Aston Villa Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Fulham Over 2.5
    60%Aston Villa Over 2.5
    2.9H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Fulham sit at 20% and Aston Villa sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.9 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Fulham v Aston Villa prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

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