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Frosinone crestFrosinone
v
Venezia crestVenezia

Serie A | Sun 06 Sep, 14:00

Frosinone v Venezia Stats

Data last updated: Sat 05 Sep 2026, 08:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Frosinone and Venezia meet in a Serie A clash where Frosinone have shown early signs of solidity with a win and a positive goal difference, while Venezia have struggled to find form and remain without points. Frosinone's defensive organization and ability to control matches contrast with Venezia's difficulties in attack and defense, setting up a contest where Frosinone's home advantage and recent momentum could be decisive. Tactical discipline and sharper finishing may give Frosinone the edge in this fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Frosinone to Win

  • Frosinone has secured 3 points with a +1 goal difference, while Venezia has no points and a -2 goal difference.
  • Frosinone concedes only 0.5 goals per game, indicating defensive strength.
  • Venezia has yet to score and has a 0% BTTS rate, suggesting offensive struggles.
  • Frosinone averages 11.5 shots per game with 4 on target, showing attacking intent.
  • The model estimates a 74% chance for a Frosinone win, highlighting strong .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Frosinone to win with a 74% probability, reflecting their superior recent form and defensive solidity. Frosinone's ability to limit goals conceded to 0.5 per game and maintain a 50% rate of matches over 2.5 goals suggests controlled but effective attacking play. Venezia's lack of goals and points so far underlines their struggles, reinforcing the value in backing Frosinone. The price offers positive value given the implied chance is significantly lower than the model's assessment. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Recent formFrosinone 3 points vs Venezia 0 points
Strong positive
Defensive recordFrosinone concedes 0.5 goals per game
Strong positive
Offensive strugglesVenezia has scored 0 goals so far
Strong positive
Model confidence74% chance for Frosinone win
Strong positive
Price valueImplied chance 37%, model chance 74%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Frosinone's early-season defensive resilience and ability to convert chances give them a tactical and statistical edge over Venezia, who have yet to find offensive rhythm. This combination of form and defensive control supports backing Frosinone to secure victory in this Serie A fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form advantage for Frosinone

“Frosinone's disciplined defense and efficient attack create a strong foundation for victory, especially against a Venezia side still searching for goals and points this season.”

Key Data Signals

Frosinone to Win evidence

Frosinone has secured 3 points with a +1 goal difference, while Venezia has no points and a -2 goal difference.

Frosinone concedes only 0.5 goals per game, indicating defensive strength.

Venezia has yet to score and has a 0% BTTS rate, suggesting offensive struggles.

Frosinone averages 11.5 shots per game with 4 on target, showing attacking intent.

What To Watch In The Data

Frosinone to Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals per match is 2.6, suggesting a moderate scoring tempo.
  • Frosinone's 50% over 2.5 goals rate and Venezia's 0% rate indicate that while goals can occur, this fixture may lean towards controlled scoring rather than open, high-scoring play.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Frosinone1.5
Avg goals scored
Venezia0
Frosinone0.5
Avg goals conceded
Venezia2
Frosinone0%
BTTS rate
Venezia0%
Frosinone50%
Over 2.5 goals
Venezia0%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Both teams to score is unlikely given Venezia's zero goals scored and Frosinone's solid defense conceding only 0.5 goals per game. The controlled goal environment and low BTTS rates indicate a match leaning towards a clean sheet for Frosinone or a low-scoring game.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFrosinone to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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Frosinone Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The for Frosinone to win reflect a significant value opportunity, with the model assigning a 74% chance compared to an implied market chance of 37%. This discrepancy suggests the market underestimates Frosinone's probability of success, making the bet price-sensitive and attractive for standard stakes.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Frosinone4
Avg corners for
Venezia4
Frosinone14
Avg total corners
Venezia6.5
Frosinone2.5
Avg yellow cards
Venezia2
Frosinone11.5
Avg shots
Venezia14
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 55% · edge +5.7 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Both teams average four corners per game, indicating balanced territorial exchanges. Frosinone's slightly higher shot volume and shots on target suggest more attacking pressure. Card averages are moderate, with Venezia showing a slightly lower yellow card rate, pointing to a disciplined but competitive match environment.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Frosinone

WL
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
29 Aug 2026A Fiorentina3-0
23 Aug 2026H Juventus0-1

Venezia

LL
Last 50W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 2L
28 Aug 2026A AC Milan0-2
23 Aug 2026H Lecce0-2
Market aligned with main pickFrosinone to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Frosinone Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Frosinone's recent form includes a win and a positive goal difference, reflecting effective defense and attack balance. Venezia's lack of points and goals scored points to ongoing offensive difficulties, reinforcing the likelihood of a Frosinone victory based on momentum and .
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Frosinone wins
2Draws
3Venezia wins
07 Feb 2026Frosinone v Venezia1-2
04 Oct 2025Venezia v Frosinone3-0
05 Mar 2023Frosinone v Venezia3-0
14 Oct 2022Venezia v Frosinone1-3
15 Aug 2021Venezia v Frosinone1-1
06 Feb 2021Frosinone v Venezia1-2
Market aligned with main pickFrosinone to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows an average of 2.6 goals per game, indicating moderately open contests historically. However, recent form and defensive solidity favor Frosinone, making past meetings a background factor rather than a decisive influence for this bet.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

Serie A

Frosinone2
Played
Venezia2
Frosinone1.5
Avg goals for
Venezia0
Frosinone0.5
Avg goals against
Venezia2
Frosinone1
Clean sheets
Venezia0
Market aligned with main pickFrosinone to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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Frosinone Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Frosinone's season stats show a strong defensive record with only 0.5 goals conceded per game and a 50% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating controlled but effective attacking play. Venezia's zero goals scored and higher goals conceded highlight their struggles, supporting the case for a Frosinone win.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9Frosinone321012
18Venezia02002-4
Frosinone sits comfortably in 9th place with 3 points, while Venezia is 18th without points, reflecting early season form gaps. Although standings are early, the pressure on Venezia to improve contrasts with Frosinone's stable position, adding psychological advantage to the home side.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Frosinone Over 2.5
0%Venezia Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals per match is 2.6, suggesting a moderate scoring tempo. Frosinone's 50% over 2.5 goals rate and Venezia's 0% rate indicate that while goals can occur, this fixture may lean towards controlled scoring rather than open, high-scoring play.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Frosinone v Venezia prediction

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