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Fredrikstad crestFredrikstad
v
Rosenborg crestRosenborg

Eliteserien | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Fredrikstad v Rosenborg Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 08:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Rosenborg hosts Fredrikstad at Lerkendal Stadion in a crucial Eliteserien clash where momentum and home advantage are key. Rosenborg arrives on the back of consecutive 3-0 league wins, showcasing midfield control and attacking sharpness, while Fredrikstad struggles with poor away form and limited offensive threat. The hosts aim to rebound from a recent heavy friendly defeat and continue their climb up the table, relying on strong possession play and key players like Amin Chiakha. Fredrikstad faces the challenge of breaking down a disciplined Rosenborg defense while managing their own injury concerns and away inefficiency.

BT4Y best bet

Rosenborg to Win

  • Rosenborg has won their last two league matches 3-0, showing strong form and defensive solidity.
  • Fredrikstad has earned only one point from their last five away league games, struggling to create chances.
  • Rosenborg averages 53.7% possession and 468 passes per game, controlling tempo effectively at home.
  • Amin Chiakha leads Rosenborg’s attack with five league goals, including a recent scoring streak.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Rosenborg to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, home control, and attacking efficiency. Rosenborg’s back-to-back clean sheets and control of possession contrast sharply with Fredrikstad’s poor away record and limited offensive output. The 11.2% indicates the current offer a positive return relative to the model’s probability. While Rosenborg’s defense has shown some vulnerability, their recent improvements and home advantage support in a home victory. No data limitations affect this assessment.

Recent FormRosenborg’s consecutive 3-0 wins and Fredrikstad’s away struggles
Strong positive
Home AdvantageRosenborg’s 11 of 15 points earned at Lerkendal
Strong positive
Attacking EfficiencyAmin Chiakha’s scoring streak and Rosenborg’s high possession
Positive
Defensive SolidityRosenborg’s back-to-back clean sheets
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Rosenborg’s recent form and home control position them strongly to secure victory against Fredrikstad, who continue to struggle offensively on the road. The hosts’ midfield control and attacking threats, led by Amin Chiakha, provide a tactical edge, while Fredrikstad’s defensive frailties and away inefficiency further tilt the balance in Rosenborg’s favor.

Main risk

Fredrikstad carry the stronger scoring threat, but Rosenborg must contribute for BTTS to land.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match outcome

“Rosenborg’s ability to control possession and create quality chances at Lerkendal, combined with Fredrikstad’s ongoing away difficulties, makes a home win the most logical outcome in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Rosenborg to Win evidence

Rosenborg has won their last two league matches 3-0, showing strong form and defensive solidity.

Fredrikstad has earned only one point from their last five away league games, struggling to create chances.

Rosenborg averages 53.7% possession and 468 passes per game, controlling tempo effectively at home.

Amin Chiakha leads Rosenborg’s attack with five league goals, including a recent scoring streak.

What To Watch In The Data

Rosenborg to Win notes

  • Over the last six head-to-head meetings, the average goals per match is 2.33, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Rosenborg’s recent matches show an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, while Fredrikstad’s is 40%, suggesting the home side’s attacking tempo and chance creation could push the game over 2.5 goals, though defensive caution may limit the total.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fredrikstad1.2
Avg goals scored
Rosenborg3
Fredrikstad2.2
Avg goals conceded
Rosenborg1
Fredrikstad100%
BTTS rate
Rosenborg60%
Fredrikstad40%
Over 2.5 goals
Rosenborg80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 39%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The goal and BTTS data suggest a low-scoring match with a likely clean sheet for Rosenborg. Fredrikstad’s lack of shots on target and low away goal average contrast with Rosenborg’s recent defensive improvements and back-to-back clean sheets, supporting a BTTS No and under 3.5 goals outcome.

Continue the research

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Fredrikstad v Rosenborg predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickRosenborg to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Rosenborg Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The 69.6% for Rosenborg to Win sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Rosenborg have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 3 for Fredrikstad. Their defensive numbers remain less convincing.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fredrikstad

LLDDD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
25 Oct 2026A Molde1-5
17 Oct 2026A Viking2-3
11 Oct 2026H Tromso1-1
20 Sep 2026A Valerenga1-1
13 Sep 2026H Sarpsborg 08 FF1-1

Rosenborg

WWDWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 1D 2L
24 Oct 2026A Ham-Kam3-0
18 Oct 2026A Sarpsborg 08 FF3-0
10 Oct 2026H Sandefjord1-1
19 Sep 2026A Kristiansund BK3-1
12 Sep 2026H Tromso5-3
Market aligned with main pickRosenborg to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Rosenborg Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Rosenborg’s recent form is markedly superior, with 13 points from their last five matches and a strong goal difference, compared to Fredrikstad’s 3 points and defensive struggles. Rosenborg’s momentum is built on solid wins and clean sheets, while Fredrikstad’s away form remains a significant weakness, reflecting a widening gulf in and performance.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Fredrikstad Over 2.5
80%Rosenborg Over 2.5
2.33H2H avg goals
Over the last six head-to-head meetings, the average goals per match is 2.33, indicating moderate scoring. Rosenborg’s recent matches show an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, while Fredrikstad’s is 40%, suggesting the home side’s attacking tempo and chance creation could push the game over 2.5 goals, though defensive caution may limit the total.

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