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France crestFrance
v
Sweden crestSweden

World Cup | Tue 30 Jun, 22:00

France v Sweden Stats

Data last updated: Fri 24 Jul 2026, 11:14 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

France face Sweden in World Cup on Tue 30 Jun, 22:00. Sweden’s three group games produced fourteen total goals, showing immense attacking promise alongside clear defensive vulnerabilities. France have scored three or more goals in four consecutive matches, spearheaded by Kylian Mbappe's explosive form.

BT4Y best bet

Line becomes too narrow, France can stretch them

  • At 10/1, Line becomes too narrow, France can stretch them implies roughly 9%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 24%.
  • Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded This Tournament
  • France have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Sweden.
  • France have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded per match, which helps the Line becomes too narrow, France can stretch them angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 24% for Line becomes too narrow, France can stretch them sits against roughly 9% implied by the current price. France have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Sweden. Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded This Tournament

Model chance vs price24% model chance against roughly 9% implied
Strong positive
France have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points.Visible data support
Positive
France have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded This TournamentArticle support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: France Win is the preferred angle because defensive Stability: Goals Conceded This Tournament France have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Sweden. Knockout football can make teams cautious, but France do not look like a side searching for answers in the final third.

Main risk

Knockout football can make teams cautious, but France do not look like a side searching for answers in the final third.

Key Data Signals

Line becomes too narrow, France can stretch them evidence

Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded This Tournament

France have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Sweden.

France have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded per match, which helps the France Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Line becomes too narrow, France can stretch them notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    France3.33
    Avg goals scored
    Sweden2.33
    France0.67
    Avg goals conceded
    Sweden2.33
    France67%
    BTTS rate
    Sweden100%
    France100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Sweden67%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickFrance to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 78% · edge -4.1 pts
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 51%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    France Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.15
    Check odds @ 1.15
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 53%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    France to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    France5
    Avg corners for
    Sweden5.67
    France8.33
    Avg total corners
    Sweden7.67
    France0.33
    Avg yellow cards
    Sweden1.67
    France16
    Avg shots
    Sweden13.33
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 46% · edge +5.5 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
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    Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 47%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 53%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    France

    WWW
    Last 53W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 0D 0L
    26 Jun 2026A Norway4-1
    22 Jun 2026H Iraq3-0
    16 Jun 2026H Senegal3-1

    Sweden

    DLW
    Last 51W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 1L
    26 Jun 2026A Japan1-1
    20 Jun 2026A Netherlands1-5
    15 Jun 2026H Tunisia5-1
    Market aligned with main pickFrance to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 78% · edge -4.1 pts
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
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    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.05
    Check odds @ 1.05
    France Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.15
    Check odds @ 1.15
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3France wins
    0Draws
    2Sweden wins
    17 Nov 2020France v Sweden4-2
    05 Sep 2020Sweden v France0-1
    09 Jun 2017Sweden v France2-1
    11 Nov 2016France v Sweden2-1
    19 Jun 2012Sweden v France2-0
    Market aligned with main pickFrance to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 78% · edge -4.1 pts
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    The head-to-head sample gives context for France to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    World Cup

    France8
    Played
    Sweden4
    France2.5
    Avg goals for
    Sweden1.8
    France1.3
    Avg goals against
    Sweden2.5
    France4
    Clean sheets
    Sweden0
    Market aligned with main pickFrance to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 78% · edge -4.1 pts
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Load more odds for this section
    France Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.15
    Check odds @ 1.15
    Season data supports France to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    3Sweden431110
    1France933008
    2Sweden431110
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    100%France Over 2.5
    67%Sweden Over 2.5
    3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: France sit at 100% and Sweden sit at 67% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    France v Sweden prediction

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    Next step

    Betting context

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