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Sweden crestSweden

World Cup | Tue 30 Jun, 22:00

France v Sweden Stats

Data last updated: Mon 29 Jun 2026, 03:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

France faces Sweden in a high-stakes World Cup clash where France's attacking prowess has been on full display, averaging over three goals per game with a perfect over 2.5 goals rate. Sweden, while resilient defensively, concedes more and relies on counter-attacks led by key players like M. France's recent form shows strong offensive output and defensive solidity, making this a tactical battle between France's dynamic forward line and Sweden's disciplined midfield and defense. The match promises intensity and goal-scoring opportunities, especially for France's leading attacker, Kylian Mbappé.

BT4Y best bet

Kylian Mbappé Anytime Goalscorer

  • France averages 3.33 goals per game with a 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches
  • Sweden concedes 2.33 goals per game and has a 100% BTTS rate, indicating defensive vulnerabilities
  • Kylian Mbappé leads France with 4 goals and 3.05 shots on target per 90 minutes
  • France averages 16 shots and 7.33 shots on target per game, showing offensive control

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Kylian Mbappé is a prolific scorer with 4 goals and over 3 shots on target per 90 minutes, reflecting his consistent threat in front of goal. France's attacking control and high shot volume create ample scoring chances for Mbappé. The model at 78% highlights his strong likelihood to score anytime, supported by France's offensive tempo and Sweden's defensive concessions. No price warnings apply, making this a solid pick based on player form and team dynamics.

Player Goal Threat4 goals, 3.05 SOT/90
Strong positive
Team Offensive PressureFrance averages 16 shots per game
Strong positive
Opponent Defensive WeaknessSweden concedes 2.33 goals per game
Positive
Model Confidence78% chance for Mbappé to score
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Mbappé's role as France's primary attacking outlet and his clinical finishing make him a key player to watch in this match. France's offensive rhythm and Sweden's defensive lapses provide a strong platform for Mbappé to find the net, making the anytime goalscorer bet a compelling choice based on tactical and statistical evidence.

Main risk

The main risk is that Sweden's defensive discipline and tactical adjustments could limit Mbappé's clear chances, reducing scoring opportunities despite his form.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Player scoring potential

“Mbappé's combination of pace, positioning, and finishing underlines his status as France's main goal threat, especially against a Sweden side that struggles to contain dynamic forwards.”

Key Data Signals

Kylian Mbappé Anytime Goalscorer evidence

France averages 3.33 goals per game with a 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches

Sweden concedes 2.33 goals per game and has a 100% BTTS rate, indicating defensive vulnerabilities

Kylian Mbappé leads France with 4 goals and 3.05 shots on target per 90 minutes

France averages 16 shots and 7.33 shots on target per game, showing offensive control

What To Watch In The Data

Kylian Mbappé Anytime Goalscorer notes

  • Over the last five matches, the fixture trend shows a strong inclination towards over 2.5 goals, driven by France's attacking tempo and Sweden's defensive vulnerabilities.
  • The average goals per game in head-to-head encounters is 3, supporting an expectation of multiple scoring opportunities and a lively attacking contest.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

France3.33
Avg goals scored
Sweden2.33
France0.67
Avg goals conceded
Sweden2.33
France67%
BTTS rate
Sweden100%
France100%
Over 2.5 goals
Sweden67%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 51% · edge +24.7 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Recent matches show France averaging over three goals with a 67% BTTS rate, while Sweden concedes frequently and has a 100% BTTS rate, indicating both teams tend to score. This trend supports a game with multiple goals and scoring chances for key attackers like Mbappé.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 51% · edge +24.7 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Sweden Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
France to WinBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Sweden to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
11
Check odds @ 11
France Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The anytime goalscorer market for Mbappé reflects his high involvement and finishing ability, with model at 78% indicating a strong likelihood of scoring. The current price is reasonable without major warning flags, suggesting a balanced value proposition given France's offensive control and Mbappé's form.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

France5
Avg corners for
Sweden5.67
France8.33
Avg total corners
Sweden7.67
France0.33
Avg yellow cards
Sweden1.67
France16
Avg shots
Sweden13.33
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
France's average of 5 corners and 16 shots per game, combined with Sweden's 5.67 corners and 13.33 shots, suggests an open game with sustained pressure and set-piece opportunities. Sweden's higher yellow card average (1.67) versus France's (0.33) indicates a more aggressive defensive approach that could lead to fouls and chances for France.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

France

WWW
Last 53W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 0L
26 Jun 2026A Norway4-1
22 Jun 2026H Iraq3-0
16 Jun 2026H Senegal3-1

Sweden

DLW
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
26 Jun 2026A Japan1-1
20 Jun 2026A Netherlands1-5
15 Jun 2026H Tunisia5-1
Best odds for this sectionSweden Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 17% · edge +24.6 pts
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.05
Check odds @ 1.05
France to WinBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Sweden to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
11
Check odds @ 11
France Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
DrawBetfred guide price · model 19%
6
Check odds @ 6
France's recent form is impressive, securing 9 points with an average of 3.33 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded per game, showcasing offensive efficiency and defensive stability. Sweden has earned 4 points, scoring 2.33 and conceding the same, reflecting a more balanced but less dominant performance. This contrast highlights France's attacking edge and Mbappé's potential to capitalize on Sweden's defensive gaps.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3France wins
0Draws
2Sweden wins
17 Nov 2020France v Sweden4-2
05 Sep 2020Sweden v France0-1
09 Jun 2017Sweden v France2-1
11 Nov 2016France v Sweden2-1
19 Jun 2012Sweden v France2-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 51% · edge +24.7 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
France to WinBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Sweden to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
11
Check odds @ 11
DrawBetfred guide price · model 19%
6
Check odds @ 6
The last five meetings between France and Sweden have averaged three goals per game, indicating a history of open and attacking encounters. While the sample is moderate, it suggests that France's offensive style has previously found success against Sweden, lending support to Mbappé's anytime goalscorer prospects in this match.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

World Cup

France3
Played
Sweden3
France3.3
Avg goals for
Sweden2.3
France0.7
Avg goals against
Sweden2.3
France1
Clean sheets
Sweden0
Best odds for this sectionSweden Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 17% · edge +24.6 pts
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Load more odds for this section
France to WinBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Sweden to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
11
Check odds @ 11
France Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
France's season stats reveal a potent attack with high shot volumes and goal conversion, while Sweden's defense has been more porous, conceding over two goals per game. France's ability to create and convert chances aligns with Mbappé's scoring profile, reinforcing the likelihood of him scoring anytime in this match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Sweden431110
1France933008
2Sweden431110
Both teams occupy top positions in their group, with France leading and Sweden second, making this fixture crucial for progression. The stakes add intensity, likely encouraging France to leverage their attacking strengths and Mbappé's goal-scoring abilities to secure a decisive result.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%France Over 2.5
67%Sweden Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, the fixture trend shows a strong inclination towards over 2.5 goals, driven by France's attacking tempo and Sweden's defensive vulnerabilities. The average goals per game in head-to-head encounters is 3, supporting an expectation of multiple scoring opportunities and a lively attacking contest.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

France v Sweden prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Next step

Betting context

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