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Fortaleza EC crestFortaleza EC
v
Vila Nova crestVila Nova

Serie B | Sat 14 Nov, 19:30

Fortaleza EC v Vila Nova Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 01:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fortaleza EC and Vila Nova meet in a Serie B clash where both teams have shown offensive intent this season. Vila Nova currently sits third with 66 points, while Fortaleza EC is fifth with 62 points, reflecting a tight competition near the top of the table. Both sides have averaged around 1.4 to 1.8 goals per game and have a 60% rate of both teams scoring, indicating an open game likely to feature goals at both ends. Recent form suggests Vila Nova has been slightly more prolific, but Fortaleza EC's home performances remain competitive, setting the stage for an engaging encounter with attacking emphasis.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate this season, showing consistent goal threat from both sides.
  • Fortaleza EC averages 13.2 shots per game, Vila Nova 13.8, indicating active offensive play.
  • Recent form shows Vila Nova scoring 1.8 goals per game, slightly higher than Fortaleza EC's 1.4.
  • Head-to-head matches average 2 goals per game, supporting a balanced attacking contest.
  • Top attackers Paulo Baya and Rafa Silva have strong goal threat and shot volumes, enhancing scoring chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Both Teams to Score with a 70% chance, supported by both teams' consistent offensive output and defensive vulnerabilities. Each side averages around 1.4 to 1.8 goals scored and concedes over one goal per game, creating conditions conducive to goals at both ends. The 60% BTTS rate for both teams this season aligns with the model's , reinforced by active shot volumes and key attacking players like Paulo Baya and Rafa Silva. The price offers positive value given the implied chance is only 50%.

BTTS Rate60% for both teams
Strong positive
Goals Scored per GameFortaleza EC 1.4, Vila Nova 1.8
Positive
Goals Conceded per GameFortaleza EC 1.2, Vila Nova 1.4
Positive
Shot VolumeFortaleza EC 13.2, Vila Nova 13.8 per game
Positive
Key Players' Offensive ImpactPaulo Baya and Rafa Silva strong goal threats
Positive
Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“This fixture features two teams with balanced attacking and defensive profiles, making Both Teams to Score a logical outcome. The presence of key offensive players and consistent shot volumes underline the likelihood of goals from both sides.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate this season, showing consistent goal threat from both sides.

Fortaleza EC averages 13.2 shots per game, Vila Nova 13.8, indicating active offensive play.

Recent form shows Vila Nova scoring 1.8 goals per game, slightly higher than Fortaleza EC's 1.4.

Head-to-head matches average 2 goals per game, supporting a balanced attacking contest.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams have maintained a 60% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, indicating a trend towards higher-scoring games.
  • The average goals per game in recent head-to-head encounters is 2, suggesting a balanced tempo with opportunities for goals.
  • This trend supports the likelihood of an open game with multiple scoring chances.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fortaleza EC1.4
Avg goals scored
Vila Nova1.8
Fortaleza EC1.2
Avg goals conceded
Vila Nova1.4
Fortaleza EC60%
BTTS rate
Vila Nova60%
Fortaleza EC60%
Over 2.5 goals
Vila Nova60%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate this season, reflecting a pattern of mutual scoring. Fortaleza EC and Vila Nova average 1.4 and 1.8 goals per game respectively, with defenses conceding over one goal per match. This balance of scoring and conceding supports an open game with goals at both ends, aligning well with the BTTS market.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Vila Nova Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Vila Nova to WinBetfred guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Fortaleza EC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Fortaleza EC to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
The 65% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Fortaleza EC show a 60% BTTS rate and Vila Nova show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Continue the research

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fortaleza EC

LDDWD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 6D 1L
07 Nov 2026A Novorizontino1-2
02 Nov 2026H Atletico Goianiense0-0
24 Oct 2026A Ponte Preta2-2
17 Oct 2026A Sport Recife2-0
12 Oct 2026H CRB2-2

Vila Nova

WDLDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
07 Nov 2026H Criciuma1-0
31 Oct 2026H Juventude2-2
24 Oct 2026A São Bernardo2-3
18 Oct 2026H Novorizontino2-2
11 Oct 2026A Nautico Recife2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 65% · edge +12.8 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Vila Nova Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Vila Nova to WinBetfred guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Fortaleza EC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Fortaleza EC to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Recent form data shows Vila Nova scoring 1.8 goals per game and Fortaleza EC 1.4, with both teams maintaining a 60% BTTS rate. Vila Nova's slightly higher scoring output suggests a more potent attack, while Fortaleza EC's form remains solid at home. These trends indicate a match likely to feature goals from both sides, consistent with the BTTS selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Fortaleza EC Over 2.5
60%Vila Nova Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams have maintained a 60% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, indicating a trend towards higher-scoring games. The average goals per game in recent head-to-head encounters is 2, suggesting a balanced tempo with opportunities for goals. This trend supports the likelihood of an open game with multiple scoring chances.

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