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Fortaleza EC crestFortaleza EC
v
Botafogo SP crestBotafogo SP

Serie B | Wed 29 Jul, 01:35

Fortaleza EC v Botafogo SP Stats

Data last updated: Tue 28 Jul 2026, 05:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fortaleza EC and Botafogo SP meet in a Serie B clash where physicality and tactical intensity are expected to shape the contest. Fortaleza EC, positioned 6th, have shown a balanced defensive approach but tend to engage in aggressive midfield battles. Botafogo SP, sitting 15th, rely on pressing and disrupting play, which often leads to fouls and disciplinary actions. Both teams have recent form indicating competitive matches with moderate goal returns, setting the stage for a tightly contested encounter with potential for multiple cautions as players vie for control and momentum.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

  • Fortaleza EC average 3.8 yellow cards per game, indicating a high disciplinary count.
  • Botafogo SP average 2 yellow cards per game, contributing to overall card volume.
  • Recent form shows both teams involved in competitive matches with physical play.
  • Player data highlights several individuals with notable foul and card risks, supporting card accumulation.
  • The match's tactical intensity and league stakes suggest refereeing interventions likely.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model projects a 75% chance for over 3.5 cards based on strong disciplinary trends from Fortaleza EC, who average nearly 4 yellows per match, and Botafogo SP's aggressive style. Key players like Rodriguinho and Márcio Carlos Maranhão carry high card risk, increasing the likelihood of multiple cautions. The competitive nature of this Serie B fixture, combined with tactical pressing and fouling patterns, supports the expectation of a card-heavy game. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake opportunity with solid .

Fortaleza EC average yellow cards3.8 per game
Strong positive
Botafogo SP average yellow cards2.0 per game
Positive
Key players with card riskRodriguinho (5 yellows), Maranhão (2.22 yellows per 90)
Strong positive
Model confidence75% chance over 3.5 cards
Strong positive
Recent match intensityHigh fouling and tactical battles
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a match marked by tactical fouling and physical challenges as Fortaleza EC and Botafogo SP contest important Serie B points. The high card averages and aggressive midfield battles suggest over 3.5 cards is a reasonable expectation. This pick aligns with both teams' disciplinary profiles and the competitive stakes of the fixture.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“This fixture's physical nature and key players' disciplinary records make over 3.5 cards a compelling angle, reflecting the intensity and tactical fouling typical in Serie B clashes.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Fortaleza EC average 3.8 yellow cards per game, indicating a high disciplinary count.

Botafogo SP average 2 yellow cards per game, contributing to overall card volume.

Recent form shows both teams involved in competitive matches with physical play.

Player data highlights several individuals with notable foul and card risks, supporting card accumulation.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

  • In the single head-to-head meeting, the average goals were 4, indicating open play.
  • While goal trends are moderate, the physicality and tempo of Serie B matches often translate into higher card counts.
  • This trend panel suggests a game with active challenges and fouling, consistent with over 3.5 cards expectations.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fortaleza EC1.2
Avg goals scored
Botafogo SP2
Fortaleza EC0.8
Avg goals conceded
Botafogo SP1.4
Fortaleza EC40%
BTTS rate
Botafogo SP60%
Fortaleza EC40%
Over 2.5 goals
Botafogo SP60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Both teams have moderate goal-scoring rates with Fortaleza EC averaging 1.2 and Botafogo SP 2 goals per game, but the focus here is on disciplinary trends rather than scoring. The BTTS rates (40% and 60%) suggest open play but do not directly impact card accumulation, which is driven more by tactical fouling and defensive pressure.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fortaleza EC

LWLWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
22 Jul 2026A Vila Nova1-2
18 Jul 2026H Novorizontino1-0
12 Jul 2026A Atletico Goianiense0-1
03 Jul 2026H Ponte Preta2-0
28 Jun 2026H Sport Recife2-1

Botafogo SP

WDDWL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
24 Jul 2026H Juventude4-2
18 Jul 2026A Londrina0-0
11 Jul 2026A Sport Recife3-3
06 Jul 2026H Avai3-1
01 Jul 2026H CRB0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Botafogo SP Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Botafogo SP to WinBetUK guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Fortaleza EC to WinBetUK guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Fortaleza EC Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Recent form data shows Fortaleza EC earning 9 points with an average of 3.8 yellow cards per game, while Botafogo SP has 8 points and 2 yellows per game. Both teams' matches have featured physical contests, reinforcing the likelihood of multiple cautions in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Fortaleza EC342010464
15Botafogo SP24206683
Fortaleza EC sits 6th with 31 points, aiming to consolidate their position, while Botafogo SP is 15th with 24 points, fighting to climb the table. The competitive pressure on both sides often leads to intense battles and tactical fouling, which can increase card counts in this Serie B encounter.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Botafogo SP Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Botafogo SP to WinBetUK guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Fortaleza EC to WinBetUK guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The over 3.5 cards market is supported by Fortaleza EC's high average yellows per game and Botafogo SP's aggressive style, creating a strong statistical base. The model's 75% underscores a solid probability, making this a standard stake pick without price sensitivity concerns.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Fortaleza EC6.8
Avg corners for
Botafogo SP5.2
Fortaleza EC11
Avg total corners
Botafogo SP11.6
Fortaleza EC3.8
Avg yellow cards
Botafogo SP2
Fortaleza EC13.8
Avg shots
Botafogo SP11.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 67% · edge +1.9 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Fortaleza EC averages 6.8 corners and 13.8 shots per game, while Botafogo SP averages 5.2 corners and 11.6 shots, indicating active attacking play that often leads to defensive fouls. The high average yellow cards, especially from Fortaleza EC, reflect a match environment with frequent fouls and tactical challenges, supporting the over 3.5 cards market.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Fortaleza EC wins
0Draws
1Botafogo SP wins
21 Mar 2026Botafogo SP v Fortaleza EC4-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Botafogo SP to WinBetUK guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Fortaleza EC to WinBetUK guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The limited head-to-head data shows one match with an average of 4 goals, reflecting open and competitive play. Although the sample is small, the intensity of previous encounters suggests a match prone to tactical fouling and disciplinary actions, lending some support to the over 3.5 cards pick.
Season team stats

Serie B

Fortaleza EC20
Played
Botafogo SP20
Fortaleza EC1.2
Avg goals for
Botafogo SP1.2
Fortaleza EC1
Avg goals against
Botafogo SP1.1
Fortaleza EC9
Clean sheets
Botafogo SP4
Best odds for this sectionBotafogo SP Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Load more odds for this section
Botafogo SP to WinBetUK guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Fortaleza EC to WinBetUK guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
Fortaleza EC Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Season-long disciplinary stats reveal Fortaleza EC's tendency for higher card counts, averaging nearly 4 yellows per match, while Botafogo SP maintains a moderate rate. This pattern reflects aggressive defensive and midfield play, supporting expectations for over 3.5 cards in this match.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Fortaleza EC Over 2.5
60%Botafogo SP Over 2.5
4H2H avg goals
In the single head-to-head meeting, the average goals were 4, indicating open play. While goal trends are moderate, the physicality and tempo of Serie B matches often translate into higher card counts. This trend panel suggests a game with active challenges and fouling, consistent with over 3.5 cards expectations.

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