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Forest Green crestForest Green
v
Harrogate Town crestHarrogate Town

National League | Sat 31 Oct, 12:30

Forest Green v Harrogate Town Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 12:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This National League fixture sees Harrogate Town travel to face Forest Green, with Harrogate Town currently sitting second in the table and Forest Green in 15th. Harrogate Town have shown strong defensive solidity, conceding only 0.8 goals per game recently, while Forest Green have struggled defensively, allowing 2.2 goals per game. Harrogate Town’s recent form is impressive, having accumulated 12 points compared to Forest Green's 5 in their last matches. The tactical setup suggests Harrogate Town’s disciplined defense and efficient attack could exploit Forest Green’s vulnerabilities in this mid-season clash.

BT4Y best bet

Harrogate Town to Win

  • Harrogate Town ranks 2nd with 31 points, Forest Green 15th with 18 points.
  • Harrogate Town concedes only 0.8 goals per game versus Forest Green’s 2.2.
  • Recent form favors Harrogate Town with 12 points gained versus Forest Green’s 5.
  • Both teams have a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating potential for goals but defensive contrast favors Harrogate.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 70% chance to Harrogate Town winning, reflecting their strong defensive record and superior recent form. Despite similar goal-scoring rates, Harrogate’s ability to limit opponents’ chances stands out. The of 2.5 offer positive value given the implied 40% chance, making this a confident selection. The data quality is solid with no limitations, supporting the reliability of this pick.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance55% model chance vs 40% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Recent Defensive FormHarrogate concedes 0.8 goals per game
Strong positive
Recent Offensive FormBoth teams average around 1.6-1.8 goals per game
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Harrogate Town’s disciplined defense and superior recent form make them the likely winners in this National League clash. Their ability to limit goals against, combined with Forest Green’s defensive struggles, provides a tactical and statistical edge favoring an away victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive strength and form advantage

“Harrogate Town’s defensive resilience and consistent point accumulation position them well to capitalize on Forest Green’s defensive weaknesses in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Harrogate Town to Win evidence

Harrogate Town ranks 2nd with 31 points, Forest Green 15th with 18 points.

Harrogate Town concedes only 0.8 goals per game versus Forest Green’s 2.2.

Recent form favors Harrogate Town with 12 points gained versus Forest Green’s 5.

Both teams have a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating potential for goals but defensive contrast favors Harrogate.

What To Watch In The Data

Harrogate Town to Win notes

  • The last six meetings between these teams have averaged 2.67 goals per game, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • Both teams’ 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches suggests a trend toward goal-scoring opportunities, though Harrogate’s defensive strength may temper the final tally.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Forest Green1.8
Avg goals scored
Harrogate Town1.6
Forest Green2.2
Avg goals conceded
Harrogate Town0.8
Forest Green80%
BTTS rate
Harrogate Town20%
Forest Green60%
Over 2.5 goals
Harrogate Town60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 65% · edge +1.3 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 44%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, but contrasting BTTS rates—Forest Green at 80% and Harrogate Town at 20%—suggest a game where Forest Green may score but Harrogate’s defense could limit the overall goal count. This dynamic points to a moderately open game with potential for goals but controlled by Harrogate’s defense.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickHarrogate Town to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Harrogate Town Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The 55% for Harrogate Town to Win sits against roughly 40% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Harrogate Town have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 5 for Forest Green.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Forest Green

WLDDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
28 Oct 2026H Eastleigh2-0
10 Oct 2026H Hartlepool2-4
29 Sep 2026H Wealdstone1-1
26 Sep 2026A Sutton Utd3-3
19 Sep 2026H Boston United1-3

Harrogate Town

LWWWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 0D 3L
28 Oct 2026A Carlisle0-3
24 Oct 2026H Sutton Utd3-1
10 Oct 2026A Woking1-0
03 Oct 2026H AFC Hornchurch3-0
29 Sep 2026A Hartlepool1-0
Market aligned with main pickHarrogate Town to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Harrogate Town Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Harrogate Town’s recent form is strong, having earned 12 points compared to Forest Green’s 5 in recent matches. This momentum reflects Harrogate’s tactical discipline and consistency, contrasting with Forest Green’s defensive struggles and lower point accumulation, favoring an away win outcome.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Forest Green Over 2.5
60%Harrogate Town Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
The last six meetings between these teams have averaged 2.67 goals per game, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. Both teams’ 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches suggests a trend toward goal-scoring opportunities, though Harrogate’s defensive strength may temper the final tally.

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