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Fleetwood Town crestFleetwood Town
v
Rochdale crestRochdale

League Two | Sat 26 Sep, 15:00

Fleetwood Town v Rochdale Stats

Data last updated: Fri 25 Sep 2026, 08:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fleetwood Town host Rochdale in a League Two clash where both sides have shown mixed recent form. Fleetwood have scored and conceded at an average rate of 1.4 goals per game, while Rochdale have a slightly tighter defense, conceding just one goal per match on average. Rochdale's recent performances suggest resilience, earning seven points compared to Fleetwood's six, and their tactical setup aims to frustrate opponents and capitalize on counter-attacks. The match carries importance for both teams seeking to climb the table, with Rochdale aiming to avoid defeat and maintain momentum away from home.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Rochdale or Draw

  • Rochdale or Draw has a of 74.2%, well above the implied market chance of 52.4%.
  • Fleetwood Town averages 13 shots per game, but Rochdale's defense concedes fewer goals, indicating defensive solidity.
  • Fleetwood's BTTS rate is high at 80%, but Rochdale's is only 20%, suggesting a lower likelihood of both teams scoring.
  • Rochdale's midfielder J. Smith averages 4.25 shots per 90 minutes, showing attacking threat despite away status.
Price warning

Rochdale or Draw is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 54% while the model sits nearer 38% (-15.8 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Rochdale Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 2.6.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model favors Rochdale or Draw with a strong 74.2% chance, reflecting Rochdale's defensive discipline and ability to limit Fleetwood's attacking output. Fleetwood's high shots and BTTS rates contrast with Rochdale's more conservative approach, supporting a cautious outcome. Rochdale's recent form and lower goals conceded per game reinforce the likelihood of avoiding defeat. No price warning is needed as the market offers positive value, making this a solid standard stake selection.

Model Chance74.2%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance52.4%
Positive
Value Edge21.8%
Strong positive
Confidence78
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Rochdale or Draw is a tactically sound pick given Rochdale's defensive resilience and Fleetwood's inconsistent finishing. Rochdale's ability to limit goals conceded and maintain composure away from home aligns with the model's in avoiding defeat. This bet balances form and defensive solidity, making it a prudent choice for this fixture.

Main risk

Their attacking record is less spectacular but persistent.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive resilience and tactical discipline

“Rochdale's disciplined defensive shape and ability to absorb pressure make the double chance a sensible option against a Fleetwood side that creates chances but struggles to convert consistently.”

Key Data Signals

Rochdale or Draw evidence

Rochdale or Draw has a of 74.2%, well above the implied market chance of 52.4%.

Fleetwood Town averages 13 shots per game, but Rochdale's defense concedes fewer goals, indicating defensive solidity.

Fleetwood's BTTS rate is high at 80%, but Rochdale's is only 20%, suggesting a lower likelihood of both teams scoring.

Rochdale's midfielder J. Smith averages 4.25 shots per 90 minutes, showing attacking threat despite away status.

What To Watch In The Data

Rochdale or Draw notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 3, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Both sides have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting an open but balanced contest where goals are possible but not guaranteed, aligning with a cautious double chance selection.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fleetwood Town1.4
Avg goals scored
Rochdale1.2
Fleetwood Town1.4
Avg goals conceded
Rochdale1
Fleetwood Town80%
BTTS rate
Rochdale20%
Fleetwood Town40%
Over 2.5 goals
Rochdale40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 31%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Fleetwood Town's high BTTS rate of 80% contrasts sharply with Rochdale's 20%, reflecting differing attacking and defensive styles. The average goals per game in their recent matches and head-to-head is moderate, suggesting a contest where Rochdale's defense could limit scoring opportunities, supporting a cautious goals outlook.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

League Two hubFleetwood Town v Rochdale predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fleetwood Town

LDWDD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 1L
19 Sep 2026A Barnet1-3
12 Sep 2026A Newport County1-1
05 Sep 2026H Shrewsbury2-0
01 Sep 2026H Oldham1-1
29 Aug 2026A Grimsby2-2

Rochdale

WDLWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 4L
19 Sep 2026H Oldham2-0
12 Sep 2026A Walsall0-0
05 Sep 2026H Gillingham1-4
01 Sep 2026H Shrewsbury3-0
29 Aug 2026A Colchester0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Rochdale Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Rochdale to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Fleetwood Town Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Fleetwood Town to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Recent form shows Rochdale earning 7 points with a solid defensive record, conceding only one goal per game, while Fleetwood has 6 points but concedes more. Rochdale's ability to avoid defeat and maintain defensive organization underpins the double chance pick, reflecting momentum and tactical discipline.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
11Fleetwood Town1072411
17Rochdale77214-3
Rochdale sits lower in the table at 17th compared to Fleetwood's 11th, but the points gap is narrow. The standings suggest both teams are motivated to secure points, with Rochdale likely to prioritize defensive stability to improve their position, reinforcing the cautious double chance approach.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionRochdale Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Rochdale to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Fleetwood Town Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Fleetwood Town to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The Rochdale or Draw market shows clear value with a of 74.2% compared to the market's implied 52.4%, indicating the price underestimates Rochdale's defensive strength and ability to avoid defeat. This positive suggests a favorable betting angle without requiring caution on price sensitivity.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Fleetwood Town4.8
Avg corners for
Rochdale2.8
Fleetwood Town10.6
Avg total corners
Rochdale8.2
Fleetwood Town3
Avg yellow cards
Rochdale1.6
Fleetwood Town13.2
Avg shots
Rochdale8.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 56% · edge +1.3 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Fleetwood Town averages more shots (13) and corners (4) per game than Rochdale, indicating territorial control and attacking pressure. However, Rochdale's lower yellow card average (1.25) compared to Fleetwood's (3.33) suggests better discipline, which may help them manage pressure and avoid conceding set-piece opportunities.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Fleetwood Town wins
4Draws
2Rochdale wins
20 Jul 2024Fleetwood Town v Rochdale1-1
17 Jul 2021Rochdale v Fleetwood Town3-3
10 Apr 2021Fleetwood Town v Rochdale1-0
03 Oct 2020Rochdale v Fleetwood Town2-1
26 Dec 2019Rochdale v Fleetwood Town2-3
21 Sep 2019Fleetwood Town v Rochdale2-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Rochdale to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Fleetwood Town to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows an average of 3 goals per game, indicating competitive encounters with moderate scoring. Past meetings suggest no overwhelming control, supporting a balanced outlook where Rochdale can avoid defeat but Fleetwood's attack remains a threat.
Season team stats

League Two

Fleetwood Town7
Played
Rochdale7
Fleetwood Town1.1
Avg goals for
Rochdale1
Fleetwood Town1
Avg goals against
Rochdale1.4
Fleetwood Town3
Clean sheets
Rochdale3
Best odds for this sectionRochdale Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Load more odds for this section
Rochdale to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Fleetwood Town Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Fleetwood Town to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Season stats highlight Rochdale's stronger defensive profile with fewer goals conceded and a lower BTTS rate, contrasting with Fleetwood's more open play and higher goals against. This defensive solidity supports the likelihood of Rochdale avoiding defeat and the value in the double chance market.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Fleetwood Town Over 2.5
40%Rochdale Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 3, indicating moderate scoring. Both sides have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting an open but balanced contest where goals are possible but not guaranteed, aligning with a cautious double chance selection.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Fleetwood Town v Rochdale prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Next step

Betting context

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