Flamengo

Estudiantes L.P.

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Thu 21 May, 01:30

Flamengo v Estudiantes L.P. Stats

Data last updated: Thu 30 Jul 2026, 08:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Flamengo face Estudiantes L.P. in CONMEBOL Libertadores on Thu 21 May, 01:30. Flamengo come in with 10 recent points and 2.5 goals per match, while Estudiantes L.P. have 6 points and 1.25 goals per match in the same lens. In this competition context, game state, selection calls and recent rhythm matter more than a simple table position.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

At 2, Over 3.5 Cards implies roughly 50%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 65%.
Have the higher yellow-card average at 4, while Flamengo sit at 0.5.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 65% for Over 3.5 Cards sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price. Have the higher yellow-card average at 4, while Flamengo sit at 0.5.

Model chance vs price65% model chance against roughly 50% implied

Strong positive

Have the higher yellow-card average at 4, while Flamengo sit.Visible data support

Positive

Price sensitivityEdge +15 pts

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 3.5 Cards is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Have the higher yellow-card average at 4, while Flamengo sit at 0.5. The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Have the higher yellow-card average at 4, while Flamengo sit at 0.5.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

Compare both yellow-card averages before treating the card line as value.
Check whether match pressure is likely to create fouls and recovery challenges.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Flamengo2.5

Avg goals scored

Estudiantes L.P.1.25

Flamengo0.5

Avg goals conceded

Estudiantes L.P.1

Flamengo50%

BTTS rate

Estudiantes L.P.100%

Flamengo50%

Over 2.5 goals

Estudiantes L.P.25%

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts

4.5

Check odds @ 4.5

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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 65%

1.65

Check odds @ 1.65

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%

1.4

Check odds @ 1.4

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%

Check odds @ 4

BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%

1.18

Check odds @ 1.18

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts

Check odds @ 2

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Flamengo to WinBet365 guide price · model 72%

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

Estudiantes L.P. Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 39%

4.25

Check odds @ 4.25

BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 37%

4.5

Check odds @ 4.5

Flamengo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%

1.21

Check odds @ 1.21

Estudiantes L.P. to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

7.5

Check odds @ 7.5

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Over 3.5 Cards is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

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Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Flamengo3.25

Avg corners for

Estudiantes L.P.4.33

Flamengo7

Avg total corners

Estudiantes L.P.7.33

Flamengo0.5

Avg yellow cards

Estudiantes L.P.4

Flamengo13

Avg shots

Estudiantes L.P.16.33

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts

Check odds @ 2

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Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price

1.9

Check odds @ 1.9

Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 40%

Check odds @ 2

Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Flamengo

WDWW

Last 53W 1D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 103W 1D 0L

08 May 2026A Independiente Medellin3-0

30 Apr 2026A Estudiantes L.P.1-1

17 Apr 2026H Independiente Medellin4-1

09 Apr 2026A Cusco2-0

Estudiantes L.P.

DDWD

Last 51W 3D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 3D 0L

06 May 2026A Cusco1-1

30 Apr 2026H Flamengo1-1

14 Apr 2026H Cusco2-1

09 Apr 2026A Independiente Medellin1-1

Best odds for this sectionFlamengo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 67% · edge +5.1 pts

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

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Estudiantes L.P. Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 39%

4.25

Check odds @ 4.25

Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%

1.07

Check odds @ 1.07

Flamengo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%

1.21

Check odds @ 1.21

Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 45%

2.61

Check odds @ 2.61

Estudiantes L.P. to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

7.5

Check odds @ 7.5

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 21%

Check odds @ 4

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Flamengo wins

1Draws

1Estudiantes L.P. wins

30 Apr 2026Estudiantes L.P. v Flamengo1-1

26 Sep 2025Estudiantes L.P. v Flamengo1-0

19 Sep 2025Flamengo v Estudiantes L.P.2-1

Best odds for this sectionFlamengo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 67% · edge +5.1 pts

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 37%

4.5

Check odds @ 4.5

Estudiantes L.P. to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

7.5

Check odds @ 7.5

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 21%

Check odds @ 4

The head-to-head sample gives context for Flamengo to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Flamengo5

Played

Estudiantes L.P.6

Flamengo2.2

Avg goals for

Estudiantes L.P.1

Flamengo0.4

Avg goals against

Estudiantes L.P.0.8

Flamengo3

Clean sheets

Estudiantes L.P.1

Best odds for this sectionFlamengo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 67% · edge +5.1 pts

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

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Estudiantes L.P. Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 39%

4.25

Check odds @ 4.25

Flamengo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%

1.21

Check odds @ 1.21

Estudiantes L.P. to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

7.5

Check odds @ 7.5

Season data supports Flamengo to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
1	Flamengo	16	6	5	1	0	12
2	Estudiantes L.P.	9	6	2	3	1	1

CONMEBOL Libertadores standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Flamengo Over 2.5

25%Estudiantes L.P. Over 2.5

2H2H avg goals

The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Flamengo sit at 50% and Estudiantes L.P. sit at 25% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Flamengo v Estudiantes L.P. Stats

Match Report

Over 3.5 Cards

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Flamengo

Estudiantes L.P.

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Football Stats Hub

Flamengo v Estudiantes L.P. Stats

Match Report

Over 3.5 Cards

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Flamengo

Estudiantes L.P.

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