Fiorentina
SassuoloSerie A | Sun 24 Jan, 17:30
Fiorentina v Sassuolo Stats
Data last updated: Mon 19 Oct 2026, 04:07 UK timeMatch Report
Fixture analysis
Fiorentina face Sassuolo in Serie A on Sun 24 Jan, 17:30. Fiorentina have lost just one of their last nine home league matches, keeping three clean sheets in their last four at the Franchi. Fiorentina’s home form is their greatest asset, losing just once in their last nine at the Franchi.
If the home team wins, the away team wins, or the match ends in a draw
- Price warning: current odds imply about 52%, above the 38% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
- At 10/11, If the home team wins, the away team wins, or the match ends in a draw implies roughly 52%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 38%.
- While Fiorentina are strong at home, they have drawn their last few fixtures and found it difficult to finish games off.
- Sassuolo have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 4 for Fiorentina.
- Fiorentina have the cleaner defensive sample at 2 conceded per match, which helps the If the home team wins, the away team wins, or the match ends in a draw angle more than a.
If the home team wins, the away team wins, or the match ends in a draw is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 52% while the model sits nearer 38% (-14.1 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection.
Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive
Football case vs market price
The 38% for If the home team wins, the away team wins, or the match ends in a draw sits against roughly 52% implied by the current price. Sassuolo have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 4 for Fiorentina. While Fiorentina are strong at home, they have drawn their last few fixtures and found it difficult to finish games off.
Verdict
BT4Y analyst view
BT4Y analyst view: Fiorentina Win is the preferred angle because while Fiorentina are strong at home, they have drawn their last few fixtures and found it difficult to finish games off. Sassuolo have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 4 for Fiorentina. Earlier in the season, the Franchi was far from a fortress, but recent weeks have seen a noticeable change.
Earlier in the season, the Franchi was far from a fortress, but recent weeks have seen a noticeable change.
Key Data Signals
If the home team wins, the away team wins, or the match ends in a draw evidence
While Fiorentina are strong at home, they have drawn their last few fixtures and found it difficult.
Sassuolo have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 4 for Fiorentina.
Fiorentina have the cleaner defensive sample at 2 conceded per match, which helps the Fiorentina Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
Fiorentina sit 19 in the table, while Sassuolo sit 12, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
What To Watch In The Data
If the home team wins, the away team wins, or the match ends in a draw notes
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.
No priced odds are available for this section yet.
Market odds
Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.
No priced odds are available for this section yet.
Recent form
Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.
Fiorentina
Sassuolo
No priced odds are available for this section yet.
Key match trends
Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.
Loading deeper match data…
