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Fiorentina crestFiorentina
v
Juventus crestJuventus

Serie A | Sun 08 Nov, 19:45

Fiorentina v Juventus Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 12:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie A fixture sees Fiorentina travel to face Juventus, who have been defensively resolute at home, conceding just once in their last six matches. Fiorentina arrive struggling for goals, having failed to score in their last three games, highlighting their offensive challenges. Juventus maintain a disciplined, possession-based style under Spalletti, while Fiorentina tend to adopt a more cautious, compact approach away from home. The match carries significance for Juventus aiming to consolidate their top-three position, while Fiorentina seek to find a positive end to a difficult campaign, setting up a tactical battle likely to be decided by defensive solidity and limited attacking opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Fiorentina Win & Under 2.5 Goals

  • Juventus have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 7 league matches, showcasing elite defensive organization.
  • Fiorentina have failed to score in their last three matches, indicating offensive struggles.
  • Juventus average 1.64 goals per game and have a strong home record with only one defeat.
  • Fiorentina’s away form is weak, with defensive lapses evident in recent heavy defeats.
  • The tactical setup suggests a low-scoring game with Fiorentina aiming to frustrate and Juventus controlling possession.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Fiorentina Win & Under 2.5 Goals as a plausible outcome given Juventus’ defensive strength and Fiorentina’s recent scoring drought. Fiorentina’s ability to capitalize on Juventus’ occasional offensive restraint and Juventus’ preference for game management over high-scoring matches supports this combined bet. The price reflects a balanced chance without strong , but the tactical context and recent form data justify the selection as a reasonable underdog pick. No data limitations affect in this rationale.

Juventus Defensive Record6 clean sheets in last 7 matches
Strong positive
Fiorentina Scoring Form0 goals in last 3 matches
Strong positive
Juventus Home Performance10 wins, 1 loss at Allianz Stadium
Positive
Fiorentina Away VulnerabilityConceded 4 goals in last away match
Neutral
Market Price vs Model Chance16.7% model chance vs 16.7% implied (+0 pts)
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Fiorentina’s recent inability to score contrasts with Juventus’ defensive discipline, but tactical caution and Juventus’ occasional offensive restraint create space for a Fiorentina upset under 2.5 goals. Fiorentina’s resilience and Juventus’ game management style suggest a tight, low-scoring match where Fiorentina can edge a win.

Main risk

The atmosphere may not always explode into chaos, but there is a cold efficiency about Juventus at home.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and defensive balance

“Fiorentina’s defensive compactness and Juventus’ controlled tempo set the stage for a tactical chess match. Fiorentina’s win combined with a low-scoring outcome reflects the nuanced balance between Juventus’ defensive strength and Fiorentina’s opportunistic resilience.”

Key Data Signals

Fiorentina Win & Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Juventus have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 7 league matches, showcasing elite defensive organization.

Fiorentina have failed to score in their last three matches, indicating offensive struggles.

Juventus average 1.64 goals per game and have a strong home record with only one defeat.

Fiorentina’s away form is weak, with defensive lapses evident in recent heavy defeats.

What To Watch In The Data

Fiorentina Win & Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, indicating generally low-scoring encounters.
  • Juventus’ recent matches show a 20% over 2.5 goals rate, while Fiorentina’s recent matches have been higher scoring but currently suppressed by their scoring drought.
  • The trend suggests a match leaning towards under 2.5 goals, consistent with Juventus’ defensive style and Fiorentina’s cautious away tactics.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fiorentina1.8
Avg goals scored
Juventus1
Fiorentina2.2
Avg goals conceded
Juventus1.2
Fiorentina100%
BTTS rate
Juventus20%
Fiorentina100%
Over 2.5 goals
Juventus20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 60% · edge +13.4 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 36%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Recent form data shows Juventus have a low BTTS rate of 20% and a modest over 2.5 goals rate, while Fiorentina have a 100% BTTS and over 2.5 goals rate but are currently in a scoring drought. The tactical context and Juventus’ defensive solidity suggest a low-scoring game with a likely BTTS No outcome, supporting the under 2.5 goals route.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFiorentina to WinBet365 guide price · Model 31% vs implied 29% · edge +2 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Fiorentina Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 16.7% for Fiorentina Win & Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 16.7% implied by the current price (+0 pts). Juventus average 1.64 goals per game and have won ten times at home, while Fiorentina’s defensive unravelling in high-pressure away games makes a comfortable.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fiorentina

WDLLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
02 Nov 2026A Sassuolo4-2
29 Oct 2026H Atalanta2-2
25 Oct 2026A Inter1-2
18 Oct 2026H Como1-3
10 Oct 2026A Genoa1-2

Juventus

WLWLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
01 Nov 2026H Napoli2-0
28 Oct 2026A Genoa0-2
25 Oct 2026A Lecce2-0
18 Oct 2026H Lazio0-3
11 Oct 2026A Cagliari1-1
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 59% · edge -1 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Fiorentina to WinBet365 guide price · model 31%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Fiorentina Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Juventus have collected 7 points recently with a strong defensive record, conceding just 1.2 goals per game and maintaining multiple clean sheets. Fiorentina’s recent form is weaker, with only 4 points and a high goals-against average of 2.2, compounded by a scoring drought. This contrast underlines Juventus’ defensive reliability and Fiorentina’s offensive struggles, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring match with Fiorentina needing to capitalize on limited chances.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Fiorentina Over 2.5
20%Juventus Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, indicating generally low-scoring encounters. Juventus’ recent matches show a 20% over 2.5 goals rate, while Fiorentina’s recent matches have been higher scoring but currently suppressed by their scoring drought. The trend suggests a match leaning towards under 2.5 goals, consistent with Juventus’ defensive style and Fiorentina’s cautious away tactics.

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