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Fiorentinav
GenoaSerie A | Sun 10 May, 14:00
Fiorentina v Genoa Stats
BT4Y best bet
Under 2.5 Goals
- At 1.73, Under 2.5 Goals is priced at roughly 58% implied probability. Our model has it closer to 63%, so the current line is showing a +5-point value edge.
- Fiorentina are at 20% for Over 2.5 in their last-five sample, Genoa are at 40%, and the H2H goal average is 2.8.
- The goals data supports the Under 2.5 Goals angle: Fiorentina have taken 2 wins from their last 5 matches, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1 conceded.
- The goals data supports the Under 2.5 Goals angle: Genoa have taken 2 wins from their last 5 matches, with BTTS landing in 40% of that sample.
- If the bookmaker is still close to 1.73, this is the market to check first because the data and the price are both pointing in the same direction.
Market odds
Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 60% · edge +1.8 pts
1.67
Bet HERE @ 1.67Load more odds for this section
Key match trends
A quick read of the strongest visible indicators.
20%Fiorentina Over 2.5
40%Genoa Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
Recent form
Results and scoring shape from recent games.
Fiorentina
LDDWW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 recordLast 104W 4D 2L
04 May 2026A AS Roma0-4
26 Apr 2026H Sassuolo0-0
20 Apr 2026A Lecce1-1
13 Apr 2026H Lazio1-0
04 Apr 2026A Hellas Verona1-0
Genoa
DLWWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 recordLast 105W 1D 4L
02 May 2026A Atalanta0-0
26 Apr 2026H Como0-2
19 Apr 2026A Pisa2-1
12 Apr 2026H Sassuolo2-1
06 Apr 2026A Juventus0-2
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBetMGM guide price · Model 37% vs implied 28% · edge +9.5 pts
3.6
Bet HERE @ 3.6Load more odds for this section
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Goal-market data and related prices.
Fiorentina0.6
Avg goals scoredGenoa0.8
Fiorentina1
Avg goals concededGenoa1.2
Fiorentina20%
BTTS rateGenoa40%
Fiorentina20%
Over 2.5 goalsGenoa40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 58% · edge +5 pts
1.73
Bet HERE @ 1.73Load more odds for this section
Head-to-head
Recent meetings and related markets.
5Fiorentina wins
5Draws
0Genoa wins
09 Nov 2025Genoa v Fiorentina2-2
02 Feb 2025Fiorentina v Genoa2-1
31 Oct 2024Genoa v Fiorentina0-1
15 Apr 2024Fiorentina v Genoa1-1
19 Aug 2023Genoa v Fiorentina1-4
17 Jan 2022Fiorentina v Genoa6-0
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBetMGM guide price · Model 37% vs implied 28% · edge +9.5 pts
3.6
Bet HERE @ 3.6Load more odds for this section
Corners, cards and shots
Detailed stat markets where available.
Fiorentina4
Avg corners forGenoa3.5
Fiorentina9.6
Avg total cornersGenoa7.75
Fiorentina2.4
Avg yellow cardsGenoa1.25
Fiorentina8.8
Avg shotsGenoa10.75
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 48% · edge +7.1 pts
2.1
Bet HERE @ 2.1Load more odds for this section
Player stats
Player props and player-level signals.
Load more player angles
M. KeanFiorentina · Attacker
Goal threat72/100
Shots /903.3
SOT /901.19
L. ColomboGenoa · Attacker
Goal threat60/100
Shots /902.17
SOT /901.15
C. EkubanGenoa · Attacker
Goal threat55/100
Shots /902.11
SOT /900.96
L. VenturinoGenoa · Attacker
Goal threat31/100
Shots /902.09
SOT /902.09
M. CornetGenoa · Attacker
Goal threat24/100
Shots /902.23
SOT /901.49
M. VitiFiorentina · Defender
Goal threat2/100
Shots /900
SOT /900
H. NicolussiFiorentina · Midfielder
Goal threat12/100
Shots /900.46
SOT /900.15
D. RuganiFiorentina · Defender
Goal threat2/100
Shots /900
SOT /900
Season team stats
Serie A
Fiorentina35
PlayedGenoa35
Fiorentina1.1
Avg goals forGenoa1.1
Fiorentina1.4
Avg goals againstGenoa1.4
Fiorentina8
Clean sheetsGenoa8
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBetMGM guide price · Model 37% vs implied 28% · edge +9.5 pts
3.6
Bet HERE @ 3.6Load more odds for this section
League standings snapshot
Current table context.
| Pos | Team | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Genoa | 40 | 35 | 10 | 10 | 15 | -8 |
| 16 | Fiorentina | 37 | 35 | 8 | 13 | 14 | -11 |
Next step
Betting context
Use the best-bet case above as the starting point, then check the live odds and the full prediction before staking.
