Football Stats Hub

Fiorentina crestFiorentina
v
Como crestComo

Serie A | Sun 18 Oct, 14:00

Fiorentina v Como Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 22:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Como hosts Fiorentina in a Serie A clash marked by contrasting recent fortunes and tactical identities. Como, sixth in the table, bring momentum from a midweek cup win and boast a strong defensive record with three consecutive clean sheets. Their game plan under Cesc Fàbregas emphasizes possession control and territorial control, averaging 62% possession and over 547 passes per game. Fiorentina, struggling in 18th place, face defensive frailties on the road, having conceded in nine straight away matches and managing just four away wins recently. Fiorentina's attacking threats like Moise Kean and Mandragora offer transition danger, but their defensive vulnerability against through balls plays into Como's strengths. This fixture is poised for a high-tempo battle with Fiorentina seeking survival and Como aiming to extend their home control.

BT4Y best bet

Como Asian Handicap -0.25

  • Como are on a three-game clean sheet streak, highlighting defensive solidity.
  • Fiorentina have conceded in nine consecutive away Serie A matches, showing road struggles.
  • Como average 62% possession and 547 passes per game, controlling the midfield.
  • Fiorentina's Moise Kean averages 6.67 shots and shots on target per 90 minutes.
  • Both teams have shown goal-scoring ability, supporting an Over 2.5 goals scenario.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Fiorentina Win & Over 2.5 Goals due to Fiorentina's attacking firepower combined with Como's defensive vulnerabilities at home. Fiorentina's high shot volume and key players like Moise Kean create scoring opportunities despite their defensive issues. The model's 17.9% chance exceeds the implied 12.5% , indicating positive value. The match context of Fiorentina's need for points and Como's possession-based style suggests an open game with multiple goals. No data limitations affect , making this a balanced selection with a solid football rationale.

Model Chance54.3% model chance
Positive
Implied Odds Chance54.3% model chance
Positive
Value Edge54.3% model chance
Positive
Fiorentina AttackHigh shot volume and key players creating chances
Positive
Como DefenseStrong home defensive record but vulnerable to through balls
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Fiorentina's attacking threat, led by Moise Kean, combined with Como's possession style, sets the stage for a high-scoring encounter. Despite Fiorentina's defensive struggles, their ability to create chances and pressure Como's defense suggests they can secure a win with multiple goals. The tactical mismatch in defensive organization favors Fiorentina's offensive approach, making this a compelling pick.

Main risk

The absence of Morata trims one route to goal, but it also concentrates responsibility — and Como have creators to feed a single focal point.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match outcome and goals

“Fiorentina's offensive dynamism, especially through Kean, matches well against Como's possession game, promising an open match with goals. Their road defensive issues add risk but also increase scoring chances, making Fiorentina Win & Over 2.5 Goals a tactically sound selection.”

Key Data Signals

Como Asian Handicap -0.25 evidence

Como are on a three-game clean sheet streak, highlighting defensive solidity.

Fiorentina have conceded in nine consecutive away Serie A matches, showing road struggles.

Como average 62% possession and 547 passes per game, controlling the midfield.

Fiorentina's Moise Kean averages 6.67 shots and shots on target per 90 minutes.

What To Watch In The Data

Como Asian Handicap -0.25 notes

  • Over the last five meetings, the average goals per game is 2.8, indicating a moderately high scoring trend.
  • Fiorentina's matches have an 80% Over 2.5 goals rate recently, while Como's is 60%, suggesting a trend towards open games with multiple goals.
  • The tempo and attacking styles of both teams support the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fiorentina1.4
Avg goals scored
Como1.6
Fiorentina2
Avg goals conceded
Como1
Fiorentina80%
BTTS rate
Como60%
Fiorentina80%
Over 2.5 goals
Como60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Despite Como's recent clean sheets, Fiorentina's consistent scoring and high shot volume support an expectation of multiple goals. Fiorentina's matches have seen both teams score frequently, but Como's defensive strength at home may limit BTTS occurrences. The Over 2.5 goals angle is supported by Fiorentina's attacking intent and Como's willingness to press forward, creating chances for both sides.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFiorentina Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 53% · edge -7.6 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 59%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Fiorentina to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
The model rates Como Asian Handicap -0.25 at 54.3% on the latest available numbers. Como's defence is currently impenetrable at home, while Fiorentina are very weak against through balls—Como's specialty.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fiorentina

LDWLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 4L
10 Oct 2026A Genoa1-2
20 Sep 2026H Napoli1-1
11 Sep 2026A Venezia4-2
05 Sep 2026H Torino1-2
29 Aug 2026H Frosinone0-3

Como

DLWWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 1L
11 Oct 2026H AS Roma0-0
20 Sep 2026A Frosinone0-2
14 Sep 2026H Parma2-1
04 Sep 2026A Genoa4-1
30 Aug 2026A Napoli2-1
Market aligned with main pickFiorentina Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 53% · edge -7.6 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Fiorentina to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 48%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Como's recent form is strong, with 10 points from their last matches and a three-game clean sheet streak, reflecting defensive solidity and control. Fiorentina's form is weaker, with only 4 points and a high goals-against average, highlighting their defensive struggles. Fiorentina's 80% Over 2.5 goals rate aligns with the expected open game, while Como's 60% rate supports the likelihood of multiple goals.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Fiorentina Over 2.5
60%Como Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
Over the last five meetings, the average goals per game is 2.8, indicating a moderately high scoring trend. Fiorentina's matches have an 80% Over 2.5 goals rate recently, while Como's is 60%, suggesting a trend towards open games with multiple goals. The tempo and attacking styles of both teams support the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals in this fixture.

Loading deeper match data…