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Feyenoord crestFeyenoord
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Fortuna Sittard crestFortuna Sittard

Eredivisie | Sat 31 Oct, 15:30

Feyenoord v Fortuna Sittard Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 08:07 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Feyenoord, leading the Eredivisie with a strong home record, faces sixth-placed Fortuna Sittard in a match where the visitors have shown resilience and tactical discipline. Feyenoord's attacking prowess is evident, but Fortuna Sittard's recent form and defensive organization suggest they can avoid defeat. The game promises a tactical battle with Fortuna Sittard aiming to capitalize on counter-attacks and maintain solidity, making the Draw No Bet on Fortuna a compelling choice given their ability to frustrate top teams away from home.

BT4Y best bet

Fortuna Sittard Draw No Bet

  • Fortuna Sittard has a 42% to avoid defeat, significantly higher than the implied suggest.
  • Feyenoord averages 19.6 shots per game but concedes only 0.8 goals, indicating strong defense.
  • Fortuna Sittard's BTTS rate is 60%, but Feyenoord's BTTS rate is only 40%, hinting at a possible low-scoring game.
  • Feyenoord leads the league but Fortuna Sittard ranks 6th with solid recent form, earning 8 points in last matches.
  • Player stats show Fortuna's attacker A. Descotte as a key threat with 0.84 goals per 90 minutes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Fortuna Sittard Draw No Bet due to their strong defensive record and ability to secure points against top teams like Feyenoord. Despite Feyenoord's attacking volume, Fortuna's tactical discipline and recent form provide a solid chance to avoid defeat. The substantial arises from the market underestimating Fortuna's resilience and the likelihood of a close contest. This pick balances the risk of Feyenoord's home advantage with Fortuna's capacity to frustrate and counter effectively.

Fortuna Sittard's defensive solidityConcedes 1.6 goals per game but manages to avoid defeat often
Positive
Feyenoord's attacking pressure19.6 shots per game but only 0.8 goals conceded on average
Neutral
Market undervaluation29.3% model chance vs 14.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent formFortuna earned 8 points recently, showing momentum
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Fortuna Sittard's disciplined defensive approach and recent form make the Draw No Bet a sensible option against league leaders Feyenoord. While Feyenoord's attack is potent, Fortuna's ability to absorb pressure and counter suggests they can at least secure a draw, providing a tactical and data-backed reason to back them with insurance.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Fortuna Sittard's resilience and tactical discipline away from home create a strong case for Draw No Bet, especially given the market's underestimation of their chances against a dominant Feyenoord side.”

Key Data Signals

Fortuna Sittard Draw No Bet evidence

Fortuna Sittard has a 42% to avoid defeat, significantly higher than the implied suggest.

Feyenoord averages 19.6 shots per game but concedes only 0.8 goals, indicating strong defense.

Fortuna Sittard's BTTS rate is 60%, but Feyenoord's BTTS rate is only 40%, hinting at a possible low-scoring game.

Feyenoord leads the league but Fortuna Sittard ranks 6th with solid recent form, earning 8 points in last matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Fortuna Sittard Draw No Bet notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating moderately open games.
  • Both teams have shown tendencies for matches with over 2.5 goals at rates of 60% for Feyenoord and 40% for Fortuna.
  • This suggests a balanced tempo with chances for goals but also defensive phases, aligning with a competitive fixture where Fortuna can limit scoring to secure a draw or narrow loss.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Feyenoord3.8
Avg goals scored
Fortuna Sittard1.2
Feyenoord0.8
Avg goals conceded
Fortuna Sittard1.6
Feyenoord40%
BTTS rate
Fortuna Sittard60%
Feyenoord60%
Over 2.5 goals
Fortuna Sittard40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.1 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.07
Check odds @ 1.07
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The goal and BTTS data suggest a controlled scoring environment. Feyenoord has a 40% BTTS rate and concedes less than one goal per game, while Fortuna concedes more but also has a higher BTTS rate at 60%. This indicates Fortuna's matches often see goals, but Feyenoord's defensive strength may limit scoring, pointing to a possible low to moderate scoring game with controlled goal opportunities.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFortuna Sittard Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 29% vs implied 14% · edge +15 pts
7
Check odds @ 7
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Fortuna Sittard to WinBet365 guide price · model 22%
15
Check odds @ 15
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
The 29.3% for Fortuna Sittard Draw No Bet sits against roughly 14.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Feyenoord have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 8 for Fortuna Sittard.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Feyenoord

DWWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 3D 0L
25 Oct 2026A PSV Eindhoven1-1
17 Oct 2026A Telstar4-3
10 Oct 2026H AZ Alkmaar2-0
20 Sep 2026H Utrecht5-0
13 Sep 2026A PEC Zwolle7-0

Fortuna Sittard

WDDWL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
25 Oct 2026H Excelsior1-0
18 Oct 2026A NEC Nijmegen2-2
10 Oct 2026H Twente1-1
19 Sep 2026A Willem II1-0
12 Sep 2026H Ajax1-5
Market aligned with main pickFortuna Sittard Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 29% vs implied 14% · edge +15 pts
7
Check odds @ 7
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 35%
5
Check odds @ 5
Fortuna Sittard to WinBet365 guide price · model 22%
15
Check odds @ 15
Recent form data shows Feyenoord accumulating 13 points with a strong goal difference, while Fortuna Sittard has earned 8 points, demonstrating solid momentum. Fortuna's ability to secure points against competitive teams supports the Draw No Bet selection, reflecting their capacity to avoid defeat even when facing the league leaders.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Feyenoord Over 2.5
40%Fortuna Sittard Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating moderately open games. Both teams have shown tendencies for matches with over 2.5 goals at rates of 60% for Feyenoord and 40% for Fortuna. This suggests a balanced tempo with chances for goals but also defensive phases, aligning with a competitive fixture where Fortuna can limit scoring to secure a draw or narrow loss.

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