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FC Porto crestFC Porto
v
Santa Clara crestSanta Clara

Primeira Liga | Sat 16 May, 15:30

FC Porto v Santa Clara Stats

Data last updated: Fri 05 Jun 2026, 09:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

FC Porto face Santa Clara in Primeira Liga on Sat 16 May, 15:30. Porto's title success is built on a league-best defence, conceding only 18 goals. Their current four-match unbeaten run reflects a team growing in .

BT4Y lean · price warning

FC Porto Win

  • At 1.33, FC Porto Win implies roughly 75%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 64%.
  • Porto have 20 clean sheets this season and are clinical at home.
  • FC Porto have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 8 for Santa Clara.
  • FC Porto have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the FC Porto Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • FC Porto sit 1 in the table, while Santa Clara sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

FC Porto Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 75% while the model sits nearer 64% (-10.9 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Santa Clara Draw No Bet shows a +23 pts edge at 5.25.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 64% for FC Porto Win sits against roughly 75% implied by the current price. FC Porto have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 8 for Santa Clara. Porto have 20 clean sheets this season and are clinical at home.

Model chance vs price64% model chance against roughly 75% implied
Negative
FC Porto have the stronger recent points return, taking 12.Visible data support
Positive
FC Porto have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Porto have 20 clean sheets this season and are.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: FC Porto Win is the preferred angle because porto have 20 clean sheets this season and are clinical at home. FC Porto have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 8 for Santa Clara. Santa Clara have scored exactly twice in three games but will find the champions' primary defence much tougher to breach.

Main risk

Santa Clara have scored exactly twice in three games but will find the champions' primary defence much tougher to breach.

Key Data Signals

FC Porto Win evidence

Porto have 20 clean sheets this season and are clinical at home.

FC Porto have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 8 for Santa Clara.

FC Porto have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the FC Porto Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

FC Porto sit 1 in the table, while Santa Clara sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

FC Porto Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    FC Porto6.8
    Avg corners for
    Santa Clara4.6
    FC Porto9
    Avg total corners
    Santa Clara8.4
    FC Porto2.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Santa Clara2.4
    FC Porto17
    Avg shots
    Santa Clara11.2
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 48% · edge +11.9 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    more Primeira Liga analysisFC Porto v Santa Clara predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    FC Porto1.8
    Avg goals scored
    Santa Clara1.2
    FC Porto1
    Avg goals conceded
    Santa Clara1
    FC Porto60%
    BTTS rate
    Santa Clara40%
    FC Porto60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Santa Clara40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15.7 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 74%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickFC Porto to WinBetUK guide price · Model 64% vs implied 75% · edge -10.9 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 63%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    FC Porto Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 73%
    1.16
    Check odds @ 1.16
    FC Porto to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    FC Porto

    LWWWW
    Last 54W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 107W 2D 1L
    10 May 2026A AVS1-3
    02 May 2026H Alverca1-0
    26 Apr 2026A Estrela2-1
    19 Apr 2026H Tondela2-0
    12 Apr 2026A Estoril3-1

    Santa Clara

    WDWDL
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 3D 2L
    11 May 2026H Nacional2-0
    02 May 2026A Arouca2-2
    26 Apr 2026H SC Braga2-1
    18 Apr 2026A Casa Pia0-0
    11 Apr 2026H Rio Ave0-2
    Market aligned with main pickFC Porto to WinBetUK guide price · Model 64% vs implied 75% · edge -10.9 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
    1.05
    Check odds @ 1.05
    FC Porto Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 73%
    1.16
    Check odds @ 1.16
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    7FC Porto wins
    2Draws
    1Santa Clara wins
    04 Jan 2026Santa Clara v FC Porto0-1
    26 Jan 2025FC Porto v Santa Clara1-1
    16 Aug 2024Santa Clara v FC Porto0-2
    29 Feb 2024Santa Clara v FC Porto1-2
    15 Apr 2023FC Porto v Santa Clara2-1
    29 Oct 2022Santa Clara v FC Porto1-1
    Market aligned with main pickFC Porto to WinBetUK guide price · Model 64% vs implied 75% · edge -10.9 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 63%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    The head-to-head sample gives context for FC Porto to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Primeira Liga

    FC Porto34
    Played
    Santa Clara34
    FC Porto1.9
    Avg goals for
    Santa Clara0.9
    FC Porto0.5
    Avg goals against
    Santa Clara1.2
    FC Porto21
    Clean sheets
    Santa Clara10
    Market aligned with main pickFC Porto to WinBetUK guide price · Model 64% vs implied 75% · edge -10.9 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Load more odds for this section
    FC Porto Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 73%
    1.16
    Check odds @ 1.16
    Season data supports FC Porto to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1FC Porto8834284248
    13Santa Clara36349916-9
    FC Porto sit in position 1, while Santa Clara sit in position 13, so table pressure belongs in the FC Porto Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%FC Porto Over 2.5
    40%Santa Clara Over 2.5
    2.6H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: FC Porto sit at 60% and Santa Clara sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.6 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    FC Porto v Santa Clara prediction

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    Next step

    Betting context

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