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FC Cincinnati crestFC Cincinnati
v
San Jose Earthquakes crestSan Jose Earthquakes

Major League Soccer | Sun 02 Aug, 00:30

FC Cincinnati v San Jose Earthquakes Stats

Data last updated: Sat 01 Aug 2026, 06:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

FC Cincinnati hosts San Jose Earthquakes in a high-stakes MLS clash marked by contrasting defensive vulnerabilities and potent attacking threats. Cincinnati’s recent home form is strong, with two consecutive wins and a commanding head-to-head record against San Jose. Their attack, spearheaded by Kevin Denkey and Evander, has been prolific but offset by defensive fragility, conceding multiple goals in recent matches. San Jose arrives with a better overall season record but is struggling defensively, having failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 consecutive league games. This sets the stage for an open, high-intensity encounter where both teams are likely to find the net.

BT4Y best bet

FC Cincinnati to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • FC Cincinnati has scored in 14 consecutive MLS matches, showing consistent attacking form.
  • Both teams have scored in each of Cincinnati’s last seven league games, indicating open contests.
  • San Jose has failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 straight league matches despite generating many shots.
  • Kevin Denkey and Evander lead Cincinnati’s attack, while Preston Judd and Timo Werner provide San Jose with goal threats.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates FC Cincinnati to Win & Both Teams to Score at 47.8% chance, significantly above the implied 35.7% market probability, indicating strong value. Cincinnati’s home control and attacking firepower, combined with San Jose’s ongoing defensive struggles and offensive capabilities, create a compelling case for both teams scoring and a home win. The high average goals per game (4.88) in Cincinnati’s matches and recent form data support an open, goal-filled contest. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Chance47.8%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance35.7%
Strong positive
Recent FormCincinnati strong at home; both teams scoring consistently
Strong positive
Defensive RecordsBoth teams with poor clean sheet records
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

FC Cincinnati’s potent attack, led by Denkey and Evander, combined with their strong home form and recent head-to-head control, makes them the likely winners. San Jose’s defensive woes and inability to keep clean sheets add to the expectation of goals at both ends, supporting the bet on both teams scoring alongside a Cincinnati victory.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and goal-scoring dynamics

“This fixture promises a thrilling contest where FC Cincinnati’s attacking prowess meets San Jose’s defensive vulnerabilities, making a home win with both teams scoring a tactically sound and statistically supported prediction.”

Key Data Signals

FC Cincinnati to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

FC Cincinnati has scored in 14 consecutive MLS matches, showing consistent attacking form.

Both teams have scored in each of Cincinnati’s last seven league games, indicating open contests.

San Jose has failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 straight league matches despite generating many shots.

Kevin Denkey and Evander lead Cincinnati’s attack, while Preston Judd and Timo Werner provide San Jose with goal threats.

What To Watch In The Data

FC Cincinnati to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • The last three meetings between these teams have averaged 4.33 goals per game, indicating a history of high-scoring matches.
  • Cincinnati’s 100% over 2.5 goals rate and San Jose’s 80% rate in recent games suggest a continuation of open, attacking play with multiple goals expected in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FC Cincinnati3.4
Avg goals scored
San Jose Earthquakes1.6
FC Cincinnati3
Avg goals conceded
San Jose Earthquakes2.4
FC Cincinnati100%
BTTS rate
San Jose Earthquakes80%
FC Cincinnati100%
Over 2.5 goals
San Jose Earthquakes80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 77% · edge +1.1 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Both teams have consistently scored in recent matches, with Cincinnati scoring in 14 straight games and San Jose in seven consecutive matches with goals conceded. The high average of nearly five goals per game in Cincinnati’s matches and San Jose’s 11-match clean sheet drought underline the strong probability of goals at both ends.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFC Cincinnati Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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FC Cincinnati to WinBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
The of 2.8 for FC Cincinnati to Win & Both Teams to Score offer clear value compared to the model’s 47.8% chance. This reflects the market underestimating Cincinnati’s home strength and the likelihood of an open game given both teams’ defensive records. The price is attractive without warning flags, encouraging standard stake .
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

FC Cincinnati3
Avg corners for
San Jose Earthquakes6.6
FC Cincinnati9.2
Avg total corners
San Jose Earthquakes11.6
FC Cincinnati1.8
Avg yellow cards
San Jose Earthquakes3.2
FC Cincinnati12.4
Avg shots
San Jose Earthquakes13
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 58% · edge +11.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
San Jose averages 7 corners per game compared to Cincinnati’s 3, indicating their ability to generate sustained pressure and territory. Both teams produce similar shot volumes and shots on target, reflecting balanced attacking intent. San Jose’s higher average yellow cards per game suggest a more aggressive defensive approach, potentially leading to set-piece opportunities.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FC Cincinnati

LWWDL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
26 Jul 2026A Columbus Crew1-2
23 Jul 2026H Vancouver Whitecaps4-3
24 May 2026H Orlando City SC6-2
17 May 2026A San Diego3-3
14 May 2026H Inter Miami3-5

San Jose Earthquakes

DLWLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
26 Jul 2026H Los Angeles Galaxy1-1
23 Jul 2026H Orlando City SC0-4
24 May 2026A Portland Timbers3-1
17 May 2026H FC Dallas2-3
14 May 2026A Seattle Sounders2-3
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 86% vs implied 78% · edge +7.9 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
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FC Cincinnati Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
FC Cincinnati to WinBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Cincinnati’s recent form shows strong home performances with two wins in their last three MLS matches, scoring 3.4 goals per game but conceding 3. Their matches have all gone over 2.5 goals and featured both teams scoring. San Jose’s form is less consistent, with only one win in seven games and conceding 2.4 goals per match, though they maintain an 80% over 2.5 goals and BTTS rate, supporting an open, goal-rich game.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2FC Cincinnati wins
0Draws
1San Jose Earthquakes wins
16 Jun 2024San Jose Earthquakes v FC Cincinnati2-4
11 Sep 2022FC Cincinnati v San Jose Earthquakes6-0
05 May 2019San Jose Earthquakes v FC Cincinnati1-0
Market aligned with main pickFC Cincinnati to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 52% · edge +13.8 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Recent head-to-head clashes heavily favor Cincinnati, who won the last two meetings 4-2 and 6-0. These results highlight Cincinnati’s ability to exploit San Jose’s defensive weaknesses, reinforcing in a home win with goals at both ends. However, the small sample size advises cautious interpretation alongside current form and tactical factors.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Major League Soccer

FC Cincinnati17
Played
San Jose Earthquakes17
FC Cincinnati2.4
Avg goals for
San Jose Earthquakes2.1
FC Cincinnati2.5
Avg goals against
San Jose Earthquakes1.2
FC Cincinnati2
Clean sheets
San Jose Earthquakes5
Market aligned with main pickFC Cincinnati Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
FC Cincinnati to WinBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over the season, Cincinnati’s attack has been prolific with 41 goals in 17 matches, averaging 2.41 goals per game, but their defense has conceded 42 goals, reflecting defensive instability. San Jose’s more balanced goal difference (+15) comes from 35 scored and 20 conceded, but recent defensive lapses have increased goals conceded, aligning with expectations of a high-scoring encounter.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3San Jose Earthquakes3317103415
7FC Cincinnati2317656-1
San Jose sits third in the Western Conference with 33 points, while Cincinnati is seventh in the Eastern Conference with 23 points. Although San Jose has the stronger overall record, Cincinnati’s recent home form and head-to-head control add competitive tension, making the match outcome less predictable and emphasizing the importance of momentum and tactical execution.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%FC Cincinnati Over 2.5
80%San Jose Earthquakes Over 2.5
4.33H2H avg goals
The last three meetings between these teams have averaged 4.33 goals per game, indicating a history of high-scoring matches. Cincinnati’s 100% over 2.5 goals rate and San Jose’s 80% rate in recent games suggest a continuation of open, attacking play with multiple goals expected in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

FC Cincinnati v San Jose Earthquakes prediction

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