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FC Cincinnati crestFC Cincinnati
v
Philadelphia Union crestPhiladelphia Union

Major League Soccer | Sat 31 Oct, 18:00

FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 08:09 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union meet in a Major League Soccer clash where attacking intent is expected to dominate. Both teams have shown offensive capabilities recently, averaging 1.6 goals per game each, with Philadelphia boasting a slightly better defensive record. Philadelphia Union's higher league position and consistent scoring form suggest a lively encounter. The match could see open play and end-to-end action, with both sides capable of contributing to a high-scoring game under typical MLS attacking styles and tactical openness.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Both teams average 1.6 goals per game, indicating balanced attacking output.
  • Philadelphia Union concedes fewer goals (1.2 per game) than FC Cincinnati (1.6), suggesting defensive differences.
  • FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union have combined for an average of 4.4 goals in their last 10 meetings.
  • Philadelphia Union has an 80% rate of matches over 2.5 goals, FC Cincinnati 60%.
  • Both teams average around 16-17 shots per game, supporting attacking volume.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 57.9% chance for Over 3.5 Goals, supported by both teams' attacking profiles and recent high-scoring trends. Philadelphia Union's strong offensive players, such as M. Iloski, contribute significantly to shot volume and goal threat, while FC Cincinnati's matches often feature open play. The combined recent head-to-head average of 4.4 goals per game further strengthens the case. No price warning applies, and the offer positive value with a 10.3% edge, making this a solid selection for a high-scoring match.

Model Chance57.9% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+10.3 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance57.9% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+10.3 pts)
Positive
Value Edge57.9% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+10.3 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 RatesPhiladelphia 80%, Cincinnati 60%
Positive
H2H Average Goals4.4 goals per match
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game with both FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union pushing forward aggressively. Philadelphia's offensive firepower, led by key attackers, combined with Cincinnati's willingness to engage in open play, suggests a high-scoring encounter. The statistical trends and recent form data align well with an Over 3.5 Goals outcome, making this a compelling pick for bettors seeking goals.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking potential and match tempo

“This fixture features two teams with strong attacking intent and a history of high-scoring matches. Philadelphia Union's dynamic forwards and FC Cincinnati's open style create the perfect conditions for a goal-rich game.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average 1.6 goals per game, indicating balanced attacking output.

Philadelphia Union concedes fewer goals (1.2 per game) than FC Cincinnati (1.6), suggesting defensive differences.

FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union have combined for an average of 4.4 goals in their last 10 meetings.

Philadelphia Union has an 80% rate of matches over 2.5 goals, FC Cincinnati 60%.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • The last ten head-to-head matches average 4.4 goals, a notably high figure indicating a trend toward open, goal-filled encounters.
  • This sample, combined with recent Over 2.5 Goals rates, suggests a fast-paced game with multiple scoring chances and a high tempo favoring the Over 3.5 Goals outcome.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FC Cincinnati1.6
Avg goals scored
Philadelphia Union1.6
FC Cincinnati1.6
Avg goals conceded
Philadelphia Union1.2
FC Cincinnati60%
BTTS rate
Philadelphia Union80%
FC Cincinnati60%
Over 2.5 goals
Philadelphia Union80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 48% · edge +10.3 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Both teams have strong goal-scoring and BTTS records, with Philadelphia Union achieving BTTS in 80% of matches and FC Cincinnati in 60%. Their combined average goals per game and head-to-head average of 4.4 goals suggest a match likely to feature multiple goals and both teams scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 69% · edge +6.5 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Philadelphia Union Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Philadelphia Union to WinBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
FC Cincinnati to WinBetUK guide price · model 37%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
The 57.9% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+10.3 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for FC Cincinnati and 80% for Philadelphia Union, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Major League Soccer hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FC Cincinnati

DWWLL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
28 Oct 2026A Inter Miami2-2
25 Oct 2026A DC United2-0
22 Oct 2026H DC United2-1
18 Oct 2026H Columbus Crew0-2
15 Oct 2026H New England Revolution2-3

Philadelphia Union

DLDWW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 2D 1L
29 Oct 2026A Nashville SC0-0
25 Oct 2026H New England Revolution1-2
17 Oct 2026H Charlotte2-2
15 Oct 2026A Chicago Fire3-1
11 Oct 2026H Real Salt Lake2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 67% · edge +8.6 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Philadelphia Union Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Philadelphia Union to WinBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
FC Cincinnati to WinBetUK guide price · model 37%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
FC Cincinnati Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Recent form data shows both teams scoring at a rate of 1.6 goals per game, with Philadelphia Union maintaining a stronger defensive record. Their high Over 2.5 Goals rates (80% for Philadelphia, 60% for Cincinnati) reflect consistent involvement in high-scoring matches, supporting the Over 3.5 Goals selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%FC Cincinnati Over 2.5
80%Philadelphia Union Over 2.5
4.4H2H avg goals
The last ten head-to-head matches average 4.4 goals, a notably high figure indicating a trend toward open, goal-filled encounters. This sample, combined with recent Over 2.5 Goals rates, suggests a fast-paced game with multiple scoring chances and a high tempo favoring the Over 3.5 Goals outcome.

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