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FC Augsburg crestFC Augsburg
v
SC Freiburg crestSC Freiburg

Bundesliga | Sat 31 Oct, 14:30

FC Augsburg v SC Freiburg Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 19:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

FC Augsburg face SC Freiburg at the WWK Arena in a Bundesliga clash charged with urgency. Augsburg sit 15th, battling relegation pressure, while Freiburg occupy a higher 8th place but are reeling from a recent defeat. Augsburg's aggressive, high-shot-volume style contrasts with Freiburg's cleaner possession and set-piece threat. Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, especially against individual errors and counter-attacks, setting the stage for a high-intensity, open game where goals are likely. Augsburg's home grit and Freiburg's technical edge create a compelling tactical battle with momentum swings possible.

BT4Y lean · price warning

FC Augsburg Win & Over 2.5 Goals

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 32%, above the 21% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Augsburg average 16.6 shots per game with 5.4 on target, showing strong offensive intent.
  • Freiburg maintain 15.6 shots per game and 5.2 on target, indicating attacking threat.
  • Both teams have high BTTS rates: Augsburg 100%, Freiburg 80%, suggesting goals at both ends.
  • Over 2.5 goals occurred in 80% of Augsburg's and 100% of Freiburg's recent matches, supporting a goal-rich game.
Price warning

FC Augsburg Win & Over 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 32% while the model sits nearer 21% (-11.2 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: SC Freiburg Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 1.98.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model sees a 21.1% chance for FC Augsburg to win with over 2.5 goals, reflecting the teams' attacking profiles and defensive weaknesses. Augsburg's high shot volume and Freiburg's set-piece threat suggest multiple scoring opportunities. Both sides concede frequently, and their recent form includes many high-scoring games. The model is moderate at 48%, acknowledging some uncertainty but supporting the bet based on tactical and statistical indicators. No price warnings apply, making this a balanced pick with a clear football rationale.

Price / value21% model chance vs 32% implied (-11.2 pts)
Negative
Shot VolumeAugsburg 16.6, Freiburg 15.6 shots per game
Strong positive
BTTS RatesAugsburg 100%, Freiburg 80%
Strong positive
Over 2.5 Goals RateAugsburg 80%, Freiburg 100%
Strong positive
Defensive VulnerabilitiesBoth teams concede frequently and prone to errors
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This bet combines Augsburg's urgent home form with their aggressive attacking style and Freiburg's vulnerability to set pieces and counter-attacks. Augsburg's need for points fuels their intensity, while Freiburg's technical quality ensures chances at both ends. The statistical profile of both teams supports a high-scoring game with Augsburg edging a win through their home grit and offensive pressure.

Main risk

The message is simple: keep the European push moving, or risk getting dragged back into the pack.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and statistical analysis

“Augsburg's direct, high-shot approach combined with Freiburg's set-piece prowess creates a volatile match dynamic where goals are likely and home advantage could tip the balance.”

Key Data Signals

FC Augsburg Win & Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Augsburg average 16.6 shots per game with 5.4 on target, showing strong offensive intent.

Freiburg maintain 15.6 shots per game and 5.2 on target, indicating attacking threat.

Both teams have high BTTS rates: Augsburg 100%, Freiburg 80%, suggesting goals at both ends.

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 80% of Augsburg's and 100% of Freiburg's recent matches, supporting a goal-rich game.

What To Watch In The Data

FC Augsburg Win & Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals tally stands at 3.1, indicating a history of open, attacking games between these sides.
  • Recent matches show a trend toward over 2.5 goals, driven by both teams' offensive intent and defensive vulnerabilities.
  • The tempo and shot volumes suggest this fixture will continue that pattern, with chances arising from set pieces, transitions, and sustained pressure in the final third.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FC Augsburg2
Avg goals scored
SC Freiburg2.2
FC Augsburg2.4
Avg goals conceded
SC Freiburg1.6
FC Augsburg100%
BTTS rate
SC Freiburg80%
FC Augsburg80%
Over 2.5 goals
SC Freiburg100%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 69% · edge +8.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both teams have high BTTS rates, with Augsburg at 100% and Freiburg at 80%, indicating frequent goals conceded and scored. Their defensive frailties and attacking styles suggest a match where both sides find the net. The over 2.5 goals rates further support a game with multiple scoring events, consistent with the tactical emphasis on aggressive offense and set-piece threats.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFC Augsburg Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 55% · edge -9.9 pts
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
FC Augsburg to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The 21.1% for FC Augsburg Win & Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 32.3% implied by the current price (-11.2 pts). Freiburg can wobble too: if they concede first, protecting a lead is already a known problem — and this becomes a nervy, emotional away.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FC Augsburg

DLDLD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 2L
24 Oct 2026H Union Berlin1-1
17 Oct 2026A SV Elversberg3-4
10 Oct 2026H Bayern München2-2
19 Sep 2026A Werder Bremen2-3
12 Sep 2026H Bayer Leverkusen2-2

SC Freiburg

LLWDW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 2L
25 Oct 2026H Bayern München1-3
18 Oct 2026A Bayer Leverkusen1-2
11 Oct 2026H FC Schalke 042-1
19 Sep 2026A Eintracht Frankfurt2-2
12 Sep 2026H Borussia Mönchengladbach5-0
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 60% · edge -9.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
FC Augsburg Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
FC Augsburg to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Recent form shows Augsburg scoring 2 goals per game but conceding 2.4, highlighting defensive weaknesses offset by offensive effort. Freiburg scores slightly higher at 2.2 goals per game while conceding fewer at 1.6, reflecting better defensive stability but still vulnerability. Both teams have high over 2.5 goals occurrence (Augsburg 80%, Freiburg 100%), indicating recent matches have been open and goal-rich, supporting the bet's expectation of multiple goals and a home win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%FC Augsburg Over 2.5
100%SC Freiburg Over 2.5
3.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals tally stands at 3.1, indicating a history of open, attacking games between these sides. Recent matches show a trend toward over 2.5 goals, driven by both teams' offensive intent and defensive vulnerabilities. The tempo and shot volumes suggest this fixture will continue that pattern, with chances arising from set pieces, transitions, and sustained pressure in the final third.

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