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Falkirk crestFalkirk
v
Hibernian crestHibernian

Premiership | Sat 09 May, 15:00

Falkirk v Hibernian Stats

Data last updated: Fri 26 Jun 2026, 10:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Falkirk face Hibernian in Premiership on Sat 09 May, 15:00. Hibernian have scored two or more goals in 18 league games this season. Falkirk are unbeaten in their last three home games against Hibernian, but their defensive record is a concern with just two clean sheets in 14.

BT4Y best bet

Falkirk Win & BTTS

  • At 10/3, Falkirk Win & BTTS implies roughly 23%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 47%.
  • Hibernian have scored 2+ goals in 18 games this term, suggesting an open match where the Bairns' home momentum carries them through a shootout.
  • Falkirk need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Falkirk on 6 and Hibernian on 4.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 80% for Falkirk and 40% for Hibernian.
  • Falkirk Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.8 for Falkirk and 1 for Hibernian are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 47% for Falkirk Win & BTTS sits against roughly 23% implied by the current price. Falkirk need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Falkirk on 6 and Hibernian on 4. Hibernian have scored 2+ goals in 18 games this term, suggesting an open match where the Bairns' home momentum carries them through a shootout.

Model chance vs price47% model chance against roughly 23% implied
Strong positive
Falkirk need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
Hibernian have scored 2+ goals in 18 games this.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Falkirk Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because hibernian have scored 2+ goals in 18 games this term, suggesting an open match where the Bairns' home momentum carries them through a shootout. Falkirk need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Falkirk on 6 and Hibernian on 4. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Falkirk Win & BTTS evidence

Hibernian have scored 2+ goals in 18 games this term, suggesting an open match where the Bairns' home.

Falkirk need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Falkirk on 6 and Hibernian on 4.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 80% for Falkirk and 40% for Hibernian.

Falkirk Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.8 for Falkirk and 1 for Hibernian are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Falkirk Win & BTTS notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Falkirk4
Avg corners for
Hibernian2
Falkirk9
Avg total corners
Hibernian9.6
Falkirk2.8
Avg yellow cards
Hibernian3
Falkirk11.8
Avg shots
Hibernian4.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 50% · edge +18 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Useful next reads

Premiership hubfull betting preview for Falkirk v Hiberniancorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Falkirk1.8
Avg goals scored
Hibernian1
Falkirk2.6
Avg goals conceded
Hibernian1.2
Falkirk80%
BTTS rate
Hibernian40%
Falkirk80%
Over 2.5 goals
Hibernian60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 64% · edge +6.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 80% for Falkirk and 40% for Hibernian, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFalkirk Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 50% · edge +10.6 pts
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Falkirk to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Falkirk Draw No Bet is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Falkirk

WLLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
02 May 2026H Motherwell1-0
25 Apr 2026A Celtic1-3
12 Apr 2026H Rangers3-6
04 Apr 2026A Motherwell3-2
21 Mar 2026H ST Mirren1-2

Hibernian

LLLWD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
03 May 2026H Celtic1-2
26 Apr 2026H Heart Of Midlothian1-2
11 Apr 2026A Aberdeen0-2
04 Apr 2026H Kilmarnock3-0
21 Mar 2026A Motherwell0-0
Market aligned with main pickFalkirk Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 50% · edge +10.6 pts
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Falkirk to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Falkirk wins
4Draws
4Hibernian wins
24 Jan 2026Falkirk v Hibernian4-1
06 Dec 2025Hibernian v Falkirk3-0
23 Sep 2025Falkirk v Hibernian2-2
12 Jul 2022Falkirk v Hibernian1-0
25 Mar 2017Hibernian v Falkirk2-1
31 Dec 2016Falkirk v Hibernian1-2
Market aligned with main pickFalkirk to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 44% · edge +6 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The head-to-head sample gives context for Falkirk to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Premiership

Falkirk38
Played
Hibernian38
Falkirk1.3
Avg goals for
Hibernian1.5
Falkirk1.6
Avg goals against
Hibernian1.2
Falkirk9
Clean sheets
Hibernian11
Market aligned with main pickFalkirk Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 50% · edge +10.6 pts
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
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Falkirk to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Season data supports Falkirk Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Hibernian51331312814
6Falkirk463313713-3
5Hibernian573815121114
6Falkirk493814717-12
Falkirk sit in position 6, while Hibernian sit in position 5, so table pressure belongs in the Falkirk Win & BTTS assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Falkirk Over 2.5
60%Hibernian Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Falkirk sit at 80% and Hibernian sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Falkirk v Hibernian prediction

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Betting context

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