Falkirk

Ayr Utd

League Cup | Tue 14 Jul, 19:45

Falkirk v Ayr Utd Stats

Data last updated: Tue 14 Jul 2026, 10:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Falkirk face Ayr Utd in League Cup on Tue 14 Jul, 19:45. Falkirk come in with 3 recent points and 5 goals per match, while Ayr Utd have 3 points and 3 goals per match in the same lens. In this competition context, game state, selection calls and recent rhythm matter more than a simple table position.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

At 1.57, Over 2.5 Goals implies roughly 64%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 78%.
The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Falkirk and 100% for Ayr Utd, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Falkirk are carrying more of the scoring load at 5 goals per match, with Ayr Utd at 3.
BTTS rates of 0% for Falkirk and 100% for Ayr Utd show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 78% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 64% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Falkirk and 100% for Ayr Utd, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Model chance vs price78% model chance against roughly 64% implied

Positive

The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Falkirk and 100%.Visible data support

Positive

Falkirk are carrying more of the scoring load at 5.Visible data support

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Falkirk and 100% for Ayr Utd, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Falkirk and 100% for Ayr Utd, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Falkirk are carrying more of the scoring load at 5 goals per match, with Ayr Utd at 3.

BTTS rates of 0% for Falkirk and 100% for Ayr Utd show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Falkirk5

Avg goals scored

Ayr Utd3

Falkirk0

Avg goals conceded

Ayr Utd2

Falkirk0%

BTTS rate

Ayr Utd100%

Falkirk100%

Over 2.5 goals

Ayr Utd100%

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 64% · edge +14.3 pts

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%

1.17

Check odds @ 1.17

Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%

2.35

Check odds @ 2.35

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Useful next reads

player stats betting angles stats dashboard football analysis hub prediction centre best bets research acca fixture filtering

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 64% · edge +14.3 pts

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Ayr Utd Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%

3.45

Check odds @ 3.45

Falkirk Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

Falkirk to WinBetfred guide price · model 68%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Ayr Utd to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

5.5

Check odds @ 5.5

DrawBet365 guide price · model 22%

4.2

Check odds @ 4.2

Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Falkirk

Last 51W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 0D 0L

11 Jul 2026A Edinburgh City5-0

Ayr Utd

Last 51W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 0D 0L

11 Jul 2026A Stranraer3-2

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 86% vs implied 88% · edge -1.7 pts

1.14

Check odds @ 1.14

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Ayr Utd Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%

3.45

Check odds @ 3.45

Falkirk Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

Falkirk to WinBetfred guide price · model 68%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

Ayr Utd to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

5.5

Check odds @ 5.5

DrawBet365 guide price · model 22%

4.2

Check odds @ 4.2

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Falkirk wins

2Draws

4Ayr Utd wins

11 Apr 2025Ayr Utd v Falkirk1-1

15 Feb 2025Falkirk v Ayr Utd2-2

14 Dec 2024Ayr Utd v Falkirk5-2

05 Oct 2024Falkirk v Ayr Utd2-0

16 Jul 2024Ayr Utd v Falkirk1-0

05 Sep 2023Ayr Utd v Falkirk0-1

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 64% · edge +14.3 pts

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Falkirk to WinBetfred guide price · model 68%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Ayr Utd to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

5.5

Check odds @ 5.5

DrawBet365 guide price · model 22%

4.2

Check odds @ 4.2

The head-to-head sample gives context for Over 2.5 Goals, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

League Cup

Falkirk4

Played

Ayr Utd4

Falkirk2.3

Avg goals for

Ayr Utd2.5

Falkirk0.8

Avg goals against

Ayr Utd0.8

Falkirk2

Clean sheets

Ayr Utd2

Best odds for this sectionAyr Utd Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 29% · edge +13 pts

3.45

Check odds @ 3.45

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Falkirk Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

Falkirk to WinBetfred guide price · model 68%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Ayr Utd to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

5.5

Check odds @ 5.5

Season data supports Ayr Utd Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Falkirk Over 2.5

100%Ayr Utd Over 2.5

2.8H2H avg goals

The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Falkirk sit at 100% and Ayr Utd sit at 100% with the H2H average at 2.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Falkirk v Ayr Utd Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Falkirk

Ayr Utd

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Football Stats Hub

Falkirk v Ayr Utd Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Falkirk

Ayr Utd

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