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Fafe crestFafe
v
Maria da Fonte crestMaria da Fonte

Friendlies Clubs | Fri 31 Jul, 20:00

Fafe v Maria da Fonte Stats

Data last updated: Fri 31 Jul 2026, 04:15 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fafe hosts Maria da Fonte in a friendly encounter where Fafe enters with stronger recent form, having secured 6 points and averaging 1.67 goals per game while conceding 1.33. Maria da Fonte's data is limited, but their lack of recent points suggests a challenging outing ahead. The match offers Fafe a chance to build momentum with home advantage and a more settled squad, while Maria da Fonte faces the task of overcoming defensive vulnerabilities and limited offensive output in this preparatory fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Fafe to Win

  • Fafe has won recent matches accumulating 6 points with a positive goal difference.
  • Maria da Fonte has no recent points, indicating form struggles.
  • Fafe averages 1.67 goals scored per game, showing attacking potential.
  • Fafe concedes 1.33 goals on average, suggesting some defensive risk but overall balance.
  • Limited data on Maria da Fonte means defensive and offensive trends are less certain but point to challenges.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Fafe to win with a 74% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and goal-scoring record. Fafe's ability to score consistently and maintain a positive goal difference supports in a home victory. The limited data on Maria da Fonte introduces some uncertainty, but the model's is bolstered by Fafe's demonstrated attacking edge and recent points accumulation. The price is not flagged as overvalued, making this a standard stake recommendation based on current form and statistical trends.

Recent formFafe has 6 points; Maria da Fonte has 0
Strong positive
Goal scoringFafe averages 1.67 goals per game
Positive
Defensive recordFafe concedes 1.33 goals per game
Neutral
Data qualityLimited data for Maria da Fonte
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Fafe's recent form and home advantage make them the clear favorite in this friendly. Their ability to score and accumulate points contrasts with Maria da Fonte's struggles, suggesting Fafe can control the match tactically and capitalize on their offensive strengths. The data supports a confident home win prediction.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Fafe's consistent scoring and recent positive results position them well to dominate this friendly, especially given Maria da Fonte's limited form data and lack of points. Expect Fafe to leverage their home advantage effectively.”

Key Data Signals

Fafe to Win evidence

Fafe has won recent matches accumulating 6 points with a positive goal difference.

Maria da Fonte has no recent points, indicating form struggles.

Fafe averages 1.67 goals scored per game, showing attacking potential.

Fafe concedes 1.33 goals on average, suggesting some defensive risk but overall balance.

What To Watch In The Data

Fafe to Win notes

  • Recent matches involving Fafe have a high frequency of over 2.5 goals, reflecting an open and attacking style.
  • The average 1.5 goals in their two head-to-head meetings suggest moderate scoring, with potential for more goals given current form and offensive trends.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fafe1.67
Avg goals scored
Maria da Fonte-
Fafe1.33
Avg goals conceded
Maria da Fonte-
Fafe33%
BTTS rate
Maria da Fonte-
Fafe67%
Over 2.5 goals
Maria da Fonte-
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 47% vs implied 43% · edge +4.6 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Fafe's matches have a 67% rate of over 2.5 goals, indicating open games with scoring opportunities. Their 33% BTTS rate suggests that while Fafe scores regularly, they also have matches with clean sheets, pointing to a balanced attack and defense dynamic in this fixture.
Season team stats

Friendlies Clubs

Fafe4
Played
Maria da Fonte0
Fafe1.8
Avg goals for
Maria da Fonte-
Fafe1
Avg goals against
Maria da Fonte-
Fafe3
Clean sheets
Maria da Fonte-
Market aligned with main pickFafe to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 64% · edge +10.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Fafe's season stats show a consistent ability to score and maintain a positive goal difference, reinforcing their offensive capabilities. Maria da Fonte's limited data restricts full analysis but suggests challenges in both scoring and defense this season.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fafe

WLW
Last 52W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 1L
18 Jul 2026A Sanjoanense1-0
15 Jul 2026A Chaves1-4
11 Jul 2026A Vizela3-0

Maria da Fonte

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Maria da Fonte yet.

Market aligned with main pickFafe to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 64% · edge +10.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Fafe's recent form is strong with 6 points and a positive goal difference, contrasting with Maria da Fonte's lack of points. This momentum supports Fafe's and tactical execution, likely influencing match control and outcome.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFafe to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 64% · edge +10.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The for Fafe to win reflect their strong recent form and attacking output, aligning well with the model's 74% win probability. The market appears fairly priced with no significant value warning, making this a sensible selection based on available data and team momentum.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Fafe wins
1Draws
0Maria da Fonte wins
19 Jan 2020Fafe v Maria da Fonte1-0
18 Aug 2019Maria da Fonte v Fafe1-1
Market aligned with main pickFafe to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 64% · edge +10.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The two previous meetings between Fafe and Maria da Fonte have averaged 1.5 goals per game, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters. While this sample is limited, it suggests a cautious approach historically, but current form data points to a more open game this time.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

67%Fafe Over 2.5
-Maria da Fonte Over 2.5
1.5H2H avg goals
Recent matches involving Fafe have a high frequency of over 2.5 goals, reflecting an open and attacking style. The average 1.5 goals in their two head-to-head meetings suggest moderate scoring, with potential for more goals given current form and offensive trends.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.