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Ethiopia crestEthiopia
v
Malawi crestMalawi

Friendlies | Tue 09 Jun, 16:00

Ethiopia v Malawi Stats

Data last updated: Mon 08 Jun 2026, 03:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ethiopia face Malawi in Friendlies on Tue 09 Jun, 16:00. Ethiopia come in with 3 recent points and 1 goals per match, while Malawi have 1 points and 0 goals per match in the same lens. In this competition context, game state, selection calls and recent rhythm matter more than a simple table position.

BT4Y best bet

Ethiopia to Win

  • At 2.45, Ethiopia Win implies roughly 41%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 62%.
  • Ethiopia have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Malawi.
  • Ethiopia have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Ethiopia Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 62% for Ethiopia Win sits against roughly 41% implied by the current price. Ethiopia have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Malawi.

Model chance vs price62% model chance against roughly 41% implied
Strong positive
Ethiopia have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points.Visible data support
Positive
Ethiopia have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Ethiopia Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Ethiopia have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Malawi. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Ethiopia Win evidence

Ethiopia have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Malawi.

Ethiopia have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Ethiopia Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Ethiopia Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Ethiopia1
    Avg goals scored
    Malawi0
    Ethiopia0
    Avg goals conceded
    Malawi0.67
    Ethiopia0%
    BTTS rate
    Malawi0%
    Ethiopia0%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Malawi0%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetUK guide price · Model 68% vs implied 59% · edge +9.2 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.55
    Check odds @ 1.55
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Ethiopia

    W
    Last 51W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 0L
    06 Jun 2026H Malawi1-0

    Malawi

    LLD
    Last 50W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 1D 2L
    06 Jun 2026A Ethiopia0-1
    31 Mar 2026A Botswana0-1
    28 Mar 2026A Zambia U230-0
    Market aligned with main pickEthiopia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 41% · edge +21.5 pts
    2.45
    Check odds @ 2.45
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Ethiopia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 71%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    more Friendlies analysisplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickEthiopia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 41% · edge +21.5 pts
    2.45
    Check odds @ 2.45
    Load more odds for this section
    Ethiopia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 71%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Ethiopia to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Ethiopia wins
    1Draws
    1Malawi wins
    06 Jun 2026Ethiopia v Malawi1-0
    20 Jun 2023Ethiopia v Malawi0-0
    05 Jun 2022Malawi v Ethiopia2-1
    17 Mar 2021Ethiopia v Malawi4-0
    Market aligned with main pickEthiopia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 41% · edge +21.5 pts
    2.45
    Check odds @ 2.45
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Ethiopia to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Friendlies

    Ethiopia2
    Played
    Malawi4
    Ethiopia1
    Avg goals for
    Malawi0.3
    Ethiopia0.5
    Avg goals against
    Malawi1
    Ethiopia1
    Clean sheets
    Malawi0
    Market aligned with main pickEthiopia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 41% · edge +21.5 pts
    2.45
    Check odds @ 2.45
    Load more odds for this section
    Ethiopia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 71%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Season data supports Ethiopia to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    0%Ethiopia Over 2.5
    0%Malawi Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Ethiopia sit at 0% and Malawi sit at 0% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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