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Estudiantes L.P. crestEstudiantes L.P.
v
Flamengo crestFlamengo

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Tue 13 Oct, 21:00

Estudiantes L.P. v Flamengo Stats

Data last updated: Mon 12 Oct 2026, 08:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Copa Libertadores clash features Estudiantes L.P. visiting Flamengo at the Maracanã in a high-stakes Group A encounter. Flamengo boast an impressive home record with six consecutive continental wins but have shown signs of attacking inconsistency recently. Estudiantes arrive unbeaten in the competition, renowned for their disciplined defensive setup under Alexander Medina, conceding just 0.55 goals per game this season. Both teams face immense pressure, with Flamengo seeking to maintain top spot and Estudiantes aiming to close the gap. Expect a tense tactical battle marked by compact defending and cautious attacking intent from both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Estudiantes L.P. Win & Under 2.5 Goals

  • concede only 0.55 goals per game, highlighting elite defensive organization.
  • Flamengo have won their last six home Copa Libertadores matches, showing strong home advantage.
  • Recent Flamengo form shows attacking struggles with just one win in five matches.
  • Previous meeting ended 1-1, reflecting a tight, low-scoring tactical contest.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Estudiantes L.P. Win & Under 2.5 Goals due to their exceptional defensive record conceding just 0.55 goals per match and Flamengo's recent drop in attacking fluency, winning only one of their last five matches. The tactical setup suggests a low-scoring game where Estudiantes' compact midfield and defensive discipline can frustrate Flamengo's possession-based attack. The price offers good value with a 10.2% edge over the implied . No data limitations affect in this pick.

Defensive SolidityEstudiantes concede 0.55 goals per game
Strong positive
Flamengo Recent Form1 win in last 5 matches
Positive
Tactical SetupCompact defensive block vs possession control
Strong positive
Price Value Edge28.4% model chance vs 18.2% implied (+10.2 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Estudiantes L.P.'s disciplined defensive structure and unbeaten continental run provide a solid foundation for a narrow win under 2.5 goals. Flamengo's home advantage is significant but recent attacking inconsistency and pressure to perform suggest a cautious match where Estudiantes can exploit defensive lapses to secure a vital victory.

Main risk

Flamengo average over 111 total attacks per match, but Estudiantes concede very few clear openings.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and form analysis

“Estudiantes' compact midfield and defensive resilience make them a formidable opponent capable of frustrating Flamengo's attack, especially given Flamengo's recent struggles to find rhythm. This tactical battle is likely to favor the disciplined visitors in a low-scoring encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Estudiantes L.P. Win & Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Concede only 0.55 goals per game, highlighting elite defensive organization.

Flamengo have won their last six home Copa Libertadores matches, showing strong home advantage.

Recent Flamengo form shows attacking struggles with just one win in five matches.

Previous meeting ended 1-1, reflecting a tight, low-scoring tactical contest.

What To Watch In The Data

Estudiantes L.P. Win & Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.75, indicating a trend toward low-scoring encounters.
  • Over the last five matches, Estudiantes have a 20% over 2.5 goals rate, while Flamengo's is 40%, showing a moderate tendency for fewer goals overall.
  • This trend aligns with expectations of a controlled tempo and limited clear-cut chances in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Estudiantes L.P.1.4
Avg goals scored
Flamengo1.8
Estudiantes L.P.0.4
Avg goals conceded
Flamengo0.6
Estudiantes L.P.40%
BTTS rate
Flamengo60%
Estudiantes L.P.20%
Over 2.5 goals
Flamengo40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Both teams have shown tendencies toward low-scoring matches, with Estudiantes conceding only 0.4 goals per game and Flamengo 0.6. Estudiantes' 40% BTTS rate versus Flamengo's 60% suggests a moderate chance of both teams scoring, but the defensive discipline and tactical caution likely limit total goals, supporting the under 3.5 goals and BTTS No context.

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Useful next reads

Estudiantes L.P. v Flamengo predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickEstudiantes L.P. to WinBetfred guide price · Model 41% vs implied 29% · edge +11.6 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Estudiantes L.P. Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
The 28.4% for Estudiantes L.P. Win & Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 18.2% implied by the current price (+10.2 pts). Estudiantes maintain an average of just 0.55 goals conceded per match, forming a highly structured low-block unit.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Estudiantes L.P.

WDWDW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 5D 1L
17 Sep 2026A Corinthians1-0
10 Sep 2026H Corinthians1-1
19 Aug 2026A U. Catolica3-0
12 Aug 2026H U. Catolica1-1
27 May 2026H Independiente Medellin1-0

Flamengo

DWWDW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 3D 0L
18 Sep 2026H Independiente del Valle1-1
11 Sep 2026A Independiente del Valle2-0
20 Aug 2026H Cruzeiro2-1
13 Aug 2026A Cruzeiro1-1
27 May 2026H Cusco3-0
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 60% · edge +10.5 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Estudiantes L.P. to WinBetfred guide price · model 41%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Estudiantes L.P. Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Estudiantes have accumulated 11 points recently with a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.4 goals per game, reinforcing their capability to keep matches tight. Flamengo also have 11 points but show signs of attacking inconsistency, averaging 1.8 goals per game with a 40% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating recent matches have been less open and more controlled, aligning with the low-scoring prediction.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Estudiantes L.P. Over 2.5
40%Flamengo Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
In the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.75, indicating a trend toward low-scoring encounters. Over the last five matches, Estudiantes have a 20% over 2.5 goals rate, while Flamengo's is 40%, showing a moderate tendency for fewer goals overall. This trend aligns with expectations of a controlled tempo and limited clear-cut chances in this fixture.

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