Estoril
BenficaPrimeira Liga | Sat 16 May, 20:30
Estoril v Benfica Stats
Data last updated: Mon 31 Aug 2026, 11:17 UK timeMatch Report
Fixture analysis
Estoril face Benfica in Primeira Liga on Sat 16 May, 20:30. Benfica’s prolific scoring, averaging four goals per match recently, and Estoril’s defensive frailties over 11 winless league games support a high-scoring match. Pavlidis’s 10 goals in six appearances add to Benfica’s attacking threat, making Over 2.
Risks failure if Estoril fail to score or Benfica score more than three goals
- At 2/5, Risks failure if Estoril fail to score or Benfica score more than three goals implies roughly 71%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 57%.
- Benfica's average of four goals per match and Estoril's defensive leaks suggest over 2.5 goals.
- The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Estoril and 80% for Benfica, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
- Benfica are carrying more of the scoring load at 2.4 goals per match, with Estoril at 0.6.
- BTTS rates of 60% for Estoril and 80% for Benfica show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.
Risks failure if Estoril fail to score or Benfica score more than three goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 71% while the model sits nearer 57% (-14.4 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 1.67.
Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive
Football case vs market price
The 57% for Risks failure if Estoril fail to score or Benfica score more than three goals sits against roughly 71% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Estoril and 80% for Benfica, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Benfica's average of four goals per match and Estoril's defensive leaks suggest over 2.5 goals.
Verdict
BT4Y analyst view
BT4Y analyst view: Over that scoring level is the preferred angle because benfica's average of four goals per match and Estoril's defensive leaks suggest over 2.5 goals. The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Estoril and 80% for Benfica, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Historical sequences do not decide matches, but this one aligns neatly with the current evidence rather than contradicting it.
Historical sequences do not decide matches, but this one aligns neatly with the current evidence rather than contradicting it.
Key Data Signals
Risks failure if Estoril fail to score or Benfica score more than three goals evidence
Benfica's average of four goals per match and Estoril's defensive leaks suggest over 2.5 goals.
The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Estoril and 80% for Benfica, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Benfica are carrying more of the scoring load at 2.4 goals per match, with Estoril at 0.6.
BTTS rates of 60% for Estoril and 80% for Benfica show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.
What To Watch In The Data
Risks failure if Estoril fail to score or Benfica score more than three goals notes
- Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
- The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.
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Market odds
Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.
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Corners, cards and shots
Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.
Recent form
Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.
Estoril
Benfica
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Head-to-head
Recent meetings and how much they still matter.
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Player stats
Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.
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Season team stats
Primeira Liga
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League standings snapshot
Current table context.
| Pos | Team | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Benfica | 80 | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 49 |
| 10 | Estoril | 39 | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | -3 |
Key match trends
Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.
Next step
Betting context
Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.
