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Estoril crestEstoril
v
Benfica crestBenfica

Primeira Liga | Sat 16 May, 20:30

Estoril v Benfica Stats

Data last updated: Fri 05 Jun 2026, 07:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Estoril face Benfica in Primeira Liga on Sat 16 May, 20:30. Estoril consistently concede first and have lost three straight at home, yet Begraoui’s 20 goals suggest they can find the net against Benfica's vulnerable defensive line in this high-stakes final fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Benfica to Win & Both Teams to Score Analysing Benfica's recent journey reveals a side with immense attacking output but a fragile defensive shell

  • At 11/8, Benfica Win & BTTS implies roughly 42%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 67%.
  • Benfica have scored twice in 12 of their last 13 matches but kept only two clean sheets in 10.
  • Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Estoril on 2 and Benfica on 11.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 60% for Estoril and 80% for Benfica.
  • Benfica Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 0.6 for Estoril and 2.4 for Benfica are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 67% for Benfica Win & BTTS sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price. Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Estoril on 2 and Benfica on 11. Benfica have scored twice in 12 of their last 13 matches but kept only two clean sheets in 10.

Model chance vs price67% model chance against roughly 42% implied
Strong positive
Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
Benfica have scored twice in 12 of their last.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Benfica Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because benfica have scored twice in 12 of their last 13 matches but kept only two clean sheets in 10. Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Estoril on 2 and Benfica on 11. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Benfica Win & BTTS evidence

Benfica have scored twice in 12 of their last 13 matches but kept only two clean sheets in.

Benfica need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Estoril on 2 and Benfica on 11.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 60% for Estoril and 80% for Benfica.

Benfica Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 0.6 for Estoril and 2.4 for Benfica are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Benfica Win & BTTS notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Estoril3.8
Avg corners for
Benfica8.8
Estoril9
Avg total corners
Benfica11.6
Estoril2
Avg yellow cards
Benfica1.4
Estoril8.4
Avg shots
Benfica17.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 58% · edge +11.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Estoril0.6
Avg goals scored
Benfica2.4
Estoril1.4
Avg goals conceded
Benfica1.2
Estoril60%
BTTS rate
Benfica80%
Estoril20%
Over 2.5 goals
Benfica80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 60% · edge +16.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBenfica to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 74% · edge -3.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Benfica Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Benfica to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Estoril

DDLLL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
10 May 2026A Alverca1-1
03 May 2026A SC Braga1-1
26 Apr 2026H Famalicao0-1
20 Apr 2026A Moreirense0-1
12 Apr 2026H FC Porto1-3

Benfica

DDWWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 4D 0L
11 May 2026H SC Braga2-2
02 May 2026A Famalicao2-2
25 Apr 2026H Moreirense4-1
19 Apr 2026A Sporting CP2-1
12 Apr 2026H Nacional2-0
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 84% vs implied 93% · edge -8.6 pts
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
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Benfica to WinBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Benfica Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Estoril wins
1Draws
9Benfica wins
03 Jan 2026Benfica v Estoril3-1
03 May 2025Estoril v Benfica1-2
23 Dec 2024Benfica v Estoril3-0
10 Mar 2024Benfica v Estoril3-1
24 Jan 2024Benfica v Estoril1-1
07 Oct 2023Estoril v Benfica0-1
Market aligned with main pickBenfica to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 74% · edge -3.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The head-to-head sample gives context for Benfica to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Primeira Liga

Estoril34
Played
Benfica34
Estoril1.6
Avg goals for
Benfica2.2
Estoril1.7
Avg goals against
Benfica0.7
Estoril5
Clean sheets
Benfica14
Market aligned with main pickBenfica to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 74% · edge -3.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Benfica Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Season data supports Benfica to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Benfica80342311049
10Estoril393410915-3
Estoril sit in position 10, while Benfica sit in position 3, so table pressure belongs in the Benfica Win & BTTS assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Estoril Over 2.5
80%Benfica Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Estoril sit at 20% and Benfica sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.