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Estac Troyes crestEstac Troyes
v
Lens crestLens

Ligue 1 | Sat 17 Oct, 19:45

Estac Troyes v Lens Stats

Data last updated: Mon 09 Nov 2026, 04:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Estac Troyes face Lens in Ligue 1 on Sat 17 Oct, 19:45. Estac Troyes come in with 3 recent points and 0.8 goals per match, while Lens have 4 points and 1.2 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • At 2, Over 9.5 Corners implies roughly 50%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 63%.
  • Estac Troyes lead the corner sample at 7.6 per match, with Lens lower at 7.6.
  • Corner value is stronger when the territory also produces shots: Estac Troyes average 16 and Lens average 15.4.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 63% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price. Estac Troyes lead the corner sample at 7.6 per match, with Lens lower at 7.6.

Model chance vs price63% model chance against roughly 50% implied
Positive
Estac Troyes lead the corner sample at 7.6 per match.Visible data support
Positive
Corner value is stronger when the territory also produces shots.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 9.5 Corners is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Estac Troyes lead the corner sample at 7.6 per match, with Lens lower at 7.6. Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Estac Troyes lead the corner sample at 7.6 per match, with Lens lower at 7.6.

Corner value is stronger when the territory also produces shots: Estac Troyes average 16 and Lens average 15.4.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • Use corner averages alongside shot pressure to separate territory from real threat.
  • Check whether wide attacks are producing repeat deliveries rather than harmless possession.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Estac Troyes0.8
Avg goals scored
Lens1.2
Estac Troyes2.6
Avg goals conceded
Lens1.6
Estac Troyes40%
BTTS rate
Lens80%
Estac Troyes40%
Over 2.5 goals
Lens80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 65% · edge +7.9 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 46%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 59%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 40% for Estac Troyes and 80% for Lens, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Ligue 1 analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 65% · edge +7.9 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Estac Troyes Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Lens to WinBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Lens Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 59%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Estac Troyes

LLLLW
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 4L
11 Oct 2026H Marseille0-2
19 Sep 2026A Angers0-2
13 Sep 2026A Lille0-2
06 Sep 2026H Strasbourg2-6
29 Aug 2026A Lorient2-1

Lens

WLDLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 3L
09 Oct 2026H Lyon2-1
18 Sep 2026A Monaco1-2
13 Sep 2026A Le Mans2-2
05 Sep 2026H Lorient0-1
29 Aug 2026A Strasbourg1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 80% vs implied 80% · edge -0.5 pts
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Estac Troyes Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Lens to WinBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Lens Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Estac Troyes to WinBetfred guide price · model 31%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
DrawBetUK guide price · model 26%
4
Check odds @ 4
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Estac Troyes Over 2.5
80%Lens Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Estac Troyes sit at 40% and Lens sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2.6 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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