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Elche crestElche
v
Alaves crestAlaves

La Liga | Sat 09 May, 13:00

Elche v Alaves Stats

Data last updated: Thu 25 Jun 2026, 03:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Elche face Alaves in La Liga on Sat 09 May, 13:00. Alaves have conceded in 100% of their last 19 league matches, underlining the structural defensive issues they face on the road. Alaves, conversely, have a poor away record and have conceded in 19 consecutive matches.

BT4Y best bet

One of three outcomes: an Elche win (1), a draw (X), or an Alaves win (2)

  • At 11/10, Elche Win implies roughly 48%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 60%.
  • Elche have turned Martinez Valero into a fortress, winning their last three home games.
  • Elche have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 5 for Alaves.
  • Elche have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Elche Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Elche sit 15 in the table, while Alaves sit 14, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 60% for Elche Win sits against roughly 48% implied by the current price. Elche have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 5 for Alaves. Elche have turned Martinez Valero into a fortress, winning their last three home games.

Model chance vs price60% model chance against roughly 48% implied
Positive
Elche have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points.Visible data support
Positive
Elche have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Elche have turned Martinez Valero into a fortress, winning.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Elche Win is the preferred angle because elche have turned Martinez Valero into a fortress, winning their last three home games. Elche have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 5 for Alaves. They can score against almost anyone, but they also concede with alarming regularity.

Main risk

They can score against almost anyone, but they also concede with alarming regularity.

Key Data Signals

Elche Win evidence

Elche have turned Martinez Valero into a fortress, winning their last three home games.

Elche have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 5 for Alaves.

Elche have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Elche Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Elche sit 15 in the table, while Alaves sit 14, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Elche Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Elche1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Alaves2
    Elche1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Alaves2.4
    Elche60%
    BTTS rate
    Alaves100%
    Elche60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Alaves100%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 59% · edge +17.2 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 33%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickElche to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 47% · edge +13.8 pts
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 65%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Elche Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Elche to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Elche5
    Avg corners for
    Alaves6.2
    Elche11.2
    Avg total corners
    Alaves12.2
    Elche1.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Alaves2.6
    Elche10
    Avg shots
    Alaves14.2
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 42% · edge +23.3 pts
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 69%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
    1.78
    Check odds @ 1.78
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Elche

    LWWWL
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 1D 5L
    03 May 2026A Celta Vigo1-3
    26 Apr 2026A Oviedo2-1
    22 Apr 2026H Atletico Madrid3-2
    11 Apr 2026H Valencia1-0
    03 Apr 2026A Rayo Vallecano0-1

    Alaves

    LWLDD
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 4D 4L
    02 May 2026H Athletic Club2-4
    25 Apr 2026H Mallorca2-1
    21 Apr 2026A Real Madrid1-2
    11 Apr 2026A Real Sociedad3-3
    05 Apr 2026H Osasuna2-2
    Market aligned with main pickElche to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 47% · edge +13.8 pts
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Load more odds for this section
    Elche Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 85%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3Elche wins
    0Draws
    3Alaves wins
    05 Oct 2025Alaves v Elche3-1
    05 Feb 2022Elche v Alaves3-1
    26 Oct 2021Alaves v Elche1-0
    31 Jul 2021Alaves v Elche0-1
    11 May 2021Elche v Alaves0-2
    18 Oct 2020Alaves v Elche0-2
    Market aligned with main pickElche to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 47% · edge +13.8 pts
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Elche to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    La Liga

    Elche38
    Played
    Alaves38
    Elche1.3
    Avg goals for
    Alaves1.2
    Elche1.5
    Avg goals against
    Alaves1.5
    Elche8
    Clean sheets
    Alaves5
    Market aligned with main pickElche to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 47% · edge +13.8 pts
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Load more odds for this section
    Elche Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Season data supports Elche to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    14Alaves4338111017-12
    15Elche4338101315-8
    Elche sit in position 15, while Alaves sit in position 14, so table pressure belongs in the Elche Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Elche Over 2.5
    100%Alaves Over 2.5
    2.33H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Elche sit at 60% and Alaves sit at 100% with the H2H average at 2.33 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Elche v Alaves prediction

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    Betting context

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