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Edinburgh City crestEdinburgh City
v
Dumbarton crestDumbarton

League Two | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Edinburgh City v Dumbarton Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 08:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Edinburgh City and Dumbarton meet in a League Two clash where both sides have shown attacking intent recently. Edinburgh City averages 2.2 goals scored per game with a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, while Dumbarton has a higher 80% rate and scores 1.6 goals per game. Both teams concede an average of 1.4 goals, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities. The fixture promises an open encounter with both sides capable of contributing to a high-scoring game, making goal-scoring opportunities likely throughout the match.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Edinburgh City averages 2.2 goals scored per match this season
  • Dumbarton has an 80% Over 2.5 Goals match rate, indicating frequent high-scoring games
  • Both teams concede around 1.4 goals per game, highlighting defensive openness
  • Recent form shows Edinburgh City and Dumbarton have combined Over 2.5 Goals rates of 60% and 80% respectively
  • Their head-to-head average goals per game is 3.67, supporting a high-scoring outlook

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 70.7% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, reflecting strong attacking trends from both Edinburgh City and Dumbarton. Both teams have high Over 2.5 rates recently, with Dumbarton particularly prolific in matches exceeding this threshold. The average goals per game in their head-to-head is 3.67, reinforcing the likelihood of a goal-rich fixture. The current at 1.6 offer positive value with an 8.2% edge, making Over 2.5 Goals an attractive selection based on attacking output and defensive openness.

Model Chance70.7% model chance vs 62.5% implied (+8.2 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance70.7% model chance vs 62.5% implied (+8.2 pts)
Positive
Value Edge70.7% model chance vs 62.5% implied (+8.2 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 RatesEdinburgh City 60%, Dumbarton 80%
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.67 goals per game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both Edinburgh City and Dumbarton showing attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities. The data supports a high-scoring match given their recent Over 2.5 Goals rates and head-to-head goal averages. This match offers a strong chance for Over 2.5 Goals based on tactical openness and goal-scoring form.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Over 2.5 Goals

“This fixture features two teams with attacking strengths and defensive frailties, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical expectation. Their recent matches and historical encounters suggest a lively game with multiple scoring opportunities.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Edinburgh City averages 2.2 goals scored per match this season

Dumbarton has an 80% Over 2.5 Goals match rate, indicating frequent high-scoring games

Both teams concede around 1.4 goals per game, highlighting defensive openness

Recent form shows Edinburgh City and Dumbarton have combined Over 2.5 Goals rates of 60% and 80% respectively

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last nine head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 3.67, indicating a history of high-scoring matches.
  • This trend, combined with recent form over the last five matches for both teams, suggests a fast tempo and open play conducive to Over 2.5 Goals outcomes.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Edinburgh City2.2
Avg goals scored
Dumbarton1.6
Edinburgh City1.4
Avg goals conceded
Dumbarton1.4
Edinburgh City60%
BTTS rate
Dumbarton80%
Edinburgh City60%
Over 2.5 goals
Dumbarton80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 63% · edge +8.2 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 33%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both Edinburgh City and Dumbarton have shown a propensity for matches with multiple goals, reflected in their 60% and 80% Over 2.5 Goals rates respectively. Their defensive records, conceding 1.4 goals per game each, further increase the likelihood of goals from both sides, making BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals plausible outcomes.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

League Two fixtures and predictionsplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 63% · edge +8.2 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Dumbarton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Dumbarton to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Edinburgh City Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 61%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Edinburgh City to WinBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
The 70.7% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 62.5% implied by the current price (+8.2 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Edinburgh City and 80% for Dumbarton, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Edinburgh City

DLDWW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
17 Oct 2026A Elgin City0-0
10 Oct 2026H Spartans1-3
03 Oct 2026A Stranraer0-0
19 Sep 2026A Kelty Hearts3-1
12 Sep 2026H Stirling Albion7-3

Dumbarton

DLWWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
17 Oct 2026H Stirling Albion1-1
10 Oct 2026A Clyde1-2
03 Oct 2026H Forfar Athletic2-1
19 Sep 2026H Spartans3-0
12 Sep 2026A Stranraer1-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 51% · edge +8.3 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 79%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Dumbarton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Dumbarton to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Edinburgh City Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 61%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Edinburgh City to WinBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Recent form data shows Edinburgh City scoring 2.2 goals per game and Dumbarton 1.6, with both teams frequently involved in matches exceeding 2.5 goals. This trend underlines their offensive capabilities and suggests momentum towards an open, goal-rich encounter in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Edinburgh City Over 2.5
80%Dumbarton Over 2.5
3.67H2H avg goals
In the last nine head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 3.67, indicating a history of high-scoring matches. This trend, combined with recent form over the last five matches for both teams, suggests a fast tempo and open play conducive to Over 2.5 Goals outcomes.

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