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Drogheda United crestDrogheda United
v
Dundalk crestDundalk

Premier Division | Fri 22 May, 20:00

Drogheda United v Dundalk Stats

Data last updated: Wed 10 Jun 2026, 12:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Drogheda United face Dundalk in Premier Division on Fri 22 May, 20:00. Drogheda average just 33.6% possession across their last 10 league matches, yet still score 1.4 goals per game. Drogheda United arrive needing a response after consecutive defeats, while Dundalk turn up carrying momentum after frustrating Shamrock Rovers in a gritty 1-0 win.

BT4Y best bet

Drogheda United Win

  • At 12/1, Drogheda United Win implies roughly 8%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 52%.
  • Alongside Daryl Horgan and Gbemi Arubi, there is enough movement and pace in the final third to punish teams that leave defensive gaps.
  • Drogheda United have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Dundalk.
  • Drogheda United have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per match, which helps the Drogheda United Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Drogheda United sit 8 in the table, while Dundalk sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 52% for Drogheda United Win sits against roughly 8% implied by the current price. Drogheda United have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Dundalk. Alongside Daryl Horgan and Gbemi Arubi, there is enough movement and pace in the final third to punish teams that leave defensive gaps.

Model chance vs price52% model chance against roughly 8% implied
Strong positive
Drogheda United have the stronger recent points return, taking 6.Visible data support
Positive
Drogheda United have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Alongside Daryl Horgan and Gbemi Arubi, there is enough.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Drogheda United Win is the preferred angle because alongside Daryl Horgan and Gbemi Arubi, there is enough movement and pace in the final third to punish teams that leave defensive gaps. Drogheda United have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Dundalk. Dundalk scored in recent matches but shipped 11 in six.

Main risk

Dundalk scored in recent matches but shipped 11 in six.

Key Data Signals

Drogheda United Win evidence

Alongside Daryl Horgan and Gbemi Arubi, there is enough movement and pace in the final third to punish.

Drogheda United have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Dundalk.

Drogheda United have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per match, which helps the Drogheda United Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Drogheda United sit 8 in the table, while Dundalk sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Drogheda United Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Drogheda United4
    Avg corners for
    Dundalk7.25
    Drogheda United11.8
    Avg total corners
    Dundalk11.5
    Drogheda United1.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Dundalk2.75
    Drogheda United8.6
    Avg shots
    Dundalk18.25
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 58% · edge +11.2 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
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    Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Drogheda United1
    Avg goals scored
    Dundalk1.2
    Drogheda United1.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Dundalk2
    Drogheda United60%
    BTTS rate
    Dundalk60%
    Drogheda United60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Dundalk60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 73% vs implied 64% · edge +9.6 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
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    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 80%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 31%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickDrogheda United to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 32% · edge +19.6 pts
    3.1
    Check odds @ 3.1
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    Drogheda United Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 73%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Drogheda United to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Drogheda United

    LLWLW
    Last 52W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 5L
    18 May 2026A Waterford1-2
    15 May 2026A Bohemians1-2
    08 May 2026H Derry City1-0
    04 May 2026A Shamrock Rovers1-4
    01 May 2026H Sligo Rovers1-0

    Dundalk

    WLDLL
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 3D 3L
    15 May 2026H Shamrock Rovers1-0
    08 May 2026H Bohemians1-3
    04 May 2026A Waterford3-3
    01 May 2026H Shelbourne1-2
    25 Apr 2026A Sligo Rovers0-2
    Market aligned with main pickDrogheda United to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 32% · edge +19.6 pts
    3.1
    Check odds @ 3.1
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    Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 79%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Drogheda United Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Drogheda United wins
    3Draws
    5Dundalk wins
    20 Feb 2026Dundalk v Drogheda United1-1
    01 Nov 2024Drogheda United v Dundalk0-0
    19 Jul 2024Drogheda United v Dundalk2-1
    12 Jul 2024Dundalk v Drogheda United4-2
    06 May 2024Drogheda United v Dundalk2-1
    01 Apr 2024Dundalk v Drogheda United0-0
    Market aligned with main pickDrogheda United to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 32% · edge +19.6 pts
    3.1
    Check odds @ 3.1
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 73%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Drogheda United to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premier Division

    Drogheda United19
    Played
    Dundalk19
    Drogheda United1.3
    Avg goals for
    Dundalk1.6
    Drogheda United1.7
    Avg goals against
    Dundalk1.5
    Drogheda United6
    Clean sheets
    Dundalk4
    Market aligned with main pickDrogheda United to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 32% · edge +19.6 pts
    3.1
    Check odds @ 3.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Drogheda United Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Season data supports Drogheda United to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    4Dundalk29197843
    8Drogheda United2119568-7
    Drogheda United sit in position 8, while Dundalk sit in position 4, so table pressure belongs in the Drogheda United Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Drogheda United Over 2.5
    60%Dundalk Over 2.5
    2.7H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Drogheda United sit at 60% and Dundalk sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.