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Dinamo Zagreb crestDinamo Zagreb
v
NEC Nijmegen crestNEC Nijmegen

UEFA Europa League | Thu 22 Oct, 17:45

Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen Stats

Data last updated: Wed 11 Nov 2026, 21:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Dinamo Zagreb face NEC Nijmegen in UEFA Europa League on Thu 22 Oct, 17:45. Dinamo Zagreb come in with 4 recent points and 0.5 goals per match, while NEC Nijmegen have 1 points and 0.5 goals per match in the same lens. In this competition context, game state, selection calls and recent rhythm matter more than a simple table position.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • At 2.38, Under 2.5 Goals implies roughly 42%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 57%.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Dinamo Zagreb and 50% for NEC Nijmegen, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Dinamo Zagreb are carrying more of the scoring load at 0.5 goals per match, with NEC Nijmegen at 0.5.
  • BTTS rates of 0% for Dinamo Zagreb and 50% for NEC Nijmegen show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 57% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Dinamo Zagreb and 50% for NEC Nijmegen, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Model chance vs price57% model chance against roughly 42% implied
Strong positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Dinamo Zagreb.Visible data support
Positive
Dinamo Zagreb are carrying more of the scoring load at.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Dinamo Zagreb are carrying more of the scoring load at 0.5 goals per match, with NEC Nijmegen at 0.5. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Dinamo Zagreb are carrying more of the scoring load at 0.5 goals per match, with NEC Nijmegen at 0.5.

BTTS rates of 0% for Dinamo Zagreb and 50% for NEC Nijmegen show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Dinamo Zagreb0.5
Avg goals scored
NEC Nijmegen0.5
Dinamo Zagreb0
Avg goals conceded
NEC Nijmegen3
Dinamo Zagreb0%
BTTS rate
NEC Nijmegen50%
Dinamo Zagreb0%
Over 2.5 goals
NEC Nijmegen50%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 42%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionNEC Nijmegen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 32% · edge +9.7 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Dinamo Zagreb to WinBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Dinamo Zagreb Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
NEC Nijmegen to WinBetUK guide price · model 19%
5
Check odds @ 5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 21%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 42%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
NEC Nijmegen Draw No Bet is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Dinamo Zagreb

WD
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
15 Oct 2026H Anderlecht1-0
16 Sep 2026A Hapoel Beer Sheva0-0

NEC Nijmegen

DL
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
15 Oct 2026H Levski Sofia1-1
17 Sep 2026A Juventus0-5
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 81% vs implied 86% · edge -4.8 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
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NEC Nijmegen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Dinamo Zagreb to WinBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Dinamo Zagreb Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
NEC Nijmegen to WinBetUK guide price · model 19%
5
Check odds @ 5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 21%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Dinamo Zagreb Over 2.5
50%NEC Nijmegen Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Dinamo Zagreb sit at 0% and NEC Nijmegen sit at 50%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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