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Derry City crestDerry City
v
St Patrick's Athl. crestSt Patrick's Athl.

Premier Division | Mon 19 Oct, 20:00

Derry City v St Patrick's Athl. Stats

Data last updated: Thu 08 Oct 2026, 09:02 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Premier Division clash features Derry City hosting St Patrick's Athl. in a contest where both teams have shown moderate scoring rates and defensive solidity. Derry City averages 1.4 goals scored and conceded per game, while St Patrick's Athl. concedes fewer goals, averaging 0.8 per match. Recent form data indicates both sides have been involved in relatively tight matches, with neither side frequently exceeding two goals per game. The tactical setup and stakes suggest a cautious approach, with both teams likely to prioritize defensive organization over open attacking play in this late-season fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. each have a 40% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, indicating moderate scoring frequency.
  • Both teams have relatively balanced goals for and against, with St Patrick's Athl. conceding fewer goals on average (0.8).
  • The average goals per head-to-head match is low at 1.5, supporting a low-scoring outlook.
  • Shots data shows moderate attacking attempts but limited clinical finishing, with Derry City averaging 4.8 shots on target and St Patrick's Athl.
  • Discipline stats reveal St Patrick's Athl. maintain a low yellow card average (0.8), suggesting fewer disruptions that might lead to chaotic, high-scoring scenarios.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% chance, supported by balanced scoring and defensive records from both teams. The low average goals in their last 10 meetings (1.5) and moderate shot volumes with limited finishing efficiency reinforce a lower scoring expectation. Both sides have a 40% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating that high-scoring games are less common. The model finds positive value at of 1.9, reflecting a solid probability edge without price warning concerns.

Model Chance66% model chance vs 52.6% implied (+13.4 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance66% model chance vs 52.6% implied (+13.4 pts)
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals1.5 goals per match
Positive
Recent Over 2.5 Rate40% for both teams
Neutral
Shots on TargetModerate (4.8 and 6.2)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible selection given the defensive discipline and moderate attacking output from both sides. St Patrick's Athl.'s stronger defensive record and the low-scoring history between these teams suggest a controlled game with limited goal-scoring opportunities. The data supports a cautious match likely to stay under three goals.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and defensive solidity

“This fixture is poised for a tactical battle with both teams showing defensive resilience and moderate attacking threat, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have relatively balanced goals for and against, with St Patrick's Athl. Conceding fewer goals on average (0.8).

The average goals per head-to-head match is low at 1.5, supporting a low-scoring outlook.

Shots data shows moderate attacking attempts but limited clinical finishing, with Derry City averaging 4.8 shots on target and St Patrick's Athl.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.5, indicating a trend towards low-scoring games.
  • This sample suggests a tempo and tactical approach favoring defensive organization and fewer goal opportunities, reinforcing the rationale for Under 2.5 Goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Derry City1.4
Avg goals scored
St Patrick's Athl.1.6
Derry City1.4
Avg goals conceded
St Patrick's Athl.0.8
Derry City40%
BTTS rate
St Patrick's Athl.20%
Derry City40%
Over 2.5 goals
St Patrick's Athl.40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 53% · edge +13.4 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Goal trends show both teams have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, which is moderate and suggests many games end with fewer goals. The head-to-head average of 1.5 goals per match further supports a low-scoring outcome. BTTS rates are lower for St Patrick's Athl. (20%), indicating they often keep clean sheets, reinforcing the under goals angle.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Derry City

LWDWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
16 Oct 2026A Drogheda United0-2
18 Sep 2026H Galway United1-0
14 Sep 2026A Waterford2-2
11 Sep 2026A Shelbourne1-0
30 Aug 2026H Shamrock Rovers3-3

St Patrick's Athl.

LWWWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
16 Oct 2026H Shelbourne1-2
19 Sep 2026A Sligo Rovers1-0
14 Sep 2026A Dundalk4-0
11 Sep 2026H Shamrock Rovers2-0
28 Aug 2026H Waterford0-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 77% vs implied 77% · edge +0.1 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
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St Patrick's Athl. Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 62%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
St Patrick's Athl. to WinBetUK guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
Derry City to WinBetfred guide price · model 34%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Derry City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Recent form data shows both teams averaging around 1.4 to 1.6 goals scored per game, with St Patrick's Athl. conceding fewer goals (0.8) compared to Derry City's 1.4. Both teams have a 40% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating that most matches stay under three goals. This form profile supports a cautious game with limited goal-scoring.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionSt Patrick's Athl. Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 53% · edge +6.7 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
St Patrick's Athl. to WinBetUK guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
Derry City to WinBetfred guide price · model 34%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Derry City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 52.6% implied by the current price (+13.4 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Derry City and 40% for St Patrick's Athl., so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Derry City Over 2.5
40%St Patrick's Athl. Over 2.5
1.5H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.5, indicating a trend towards low-scoring games. This sample suggests a tempo and tactical approach favoring defensive organization and fewer goal opportunities, reinforcing the rationale for Under 2.5 Goals in this fixture.

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