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Derry City crestDerry City
v
Shelbourne crestShelbourne

Premier Division | Mon 25 May, 19:45

Derry City v Shelbourne Stats

Data last updated: Wed 10 Jun 2026, 08:50 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Derry City face Shelbourne in Premier Division on Mon 25 May, 19:45. Shelbourne arrive with immense momentum following back-to-back league victories and an impressive five-match unbeaten streak. Winning ugly is often a sign of growth, and Shelbourne’s recent form suggests Joey O’Brien’s side are becoming tougher, sharper and more resilient.

BT4Y best bet

Shelbourne to Win

  • At 2.8, Draw implies roughly 36%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 70%.
  • Shelbourne have lost only once away from home and have won five of their last seven road matches.
  • Shelbourne have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 4 for Derry City.
  • Shelbourne have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Draw angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Derry City sit 6 in the table, while Shelbourne sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 70% for Draw sits against roughly 36% implied by the current price. Shelbourne have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 4 for Derry City. Shelbourne have lost only once away from home and have won five of their last seven road matches.

Model chance vs price70% model chance against roughly 36% implied
Strong positive
Shelbourne have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points.Visible data support
Positive
Shelbourne have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Shelbourne have lost only once away from home.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Draw is the preferred angle because shelbourne have lost only once away from home and have won five of their last seven road matches. Shelbourne have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 4 for Derry City. Draws can steady a season for a while, but eventually they begin to feel like losses wearing a disguise.

Main risk

Draws can steady a season for a while, but eventually they begin to feel like losses wearing a disguise.

Key Data Signals

Draw evidence

Shelbourne have lost only once away from home and have won five of their last seven road matches.

Shelbourne have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 4 for Derry City.

Shelbourne have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Draw angle more than a raw possession edge.

Derry City sit 6 in the table, while Shelbourne sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Draw notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Derry City7.2
    Avg corners for
    Shelbourne8
    Derry City9.8
    Avg total corners
    Shelbourne12.33
    Derry City3.8
    Avg yellow cards
    Shelbourne4
    Derry City12.6
    Avg shots
    Shelbourne18
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 50% · edge +19 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
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    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    full betting preview for Derry City v Shelbournecorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Derry City0.8
    Avg goals scored
    Shelbourne1.4
    Derry City1
    Avg goals conceded
    Shelbourne0.8
    Derry City60%
    BTTS rate
    Shelbourne60%
    Derry City20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Shelbourne60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +14.3 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 65%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 29%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickDrawBetMGM guide price · Model 19% vs implied 31% · edge -12.1 pts
    3.2
    Check odds @ 3.2
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    Shelbourne to WinBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    2.8
    Check odds @ 2.8
    Shelbourne Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
    2.02
    Check odds @ 2.02
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Derry City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    1.78
    Check odds @ 1.78
    Draw is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Derry City

    DDLDD
    Last 50W 4D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 6D 2L
    22 May 2026H St Patrick's Athl.0-0
    15 May 2026A Waterford2-2
    08 May 2026A Drogheda United0-1
    04 May 2026H Galway United1-1
    01 May 2026A Bohemians1-1

    Shelbourne

    WWDDW
    Last 53W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 2D 4L
    22 May 2026H Waterford2-1
    15 May 2026A St Patrick's Athl.1-0
    08 May 2026H Sligo Rovers0-0
    04 May 2026A Bohemians2-2
    01 May 2026A Dundalk2-1
    Market aligned with main pickDrawBetMGM guide price · Model 19% vs implied 31% · edge -12.1 pts
    3.2
    Check odds @ 3.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Shelbourne to WinBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    2.8
    Check odds @ 2.8
    Shelbourne Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
    2.02
    Check odds @ 2.02
    Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Derry City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    1.78
    Check odds @ 1.78
    Derry City to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    4Derry City wins
    3Draws
    3Shelbourne wins
    17 Apr 2026Shelbourne v Derry City1-2
    13 Mar 2026Derry City v Shelbourne1-2
    19 Sep 2025Derry City v Shelbourne1-1
    20 Jun 2025Shelbourne v Derry City0-1
    02 May 2025Derry City v Shelbourne2-0
    14 Feb 2025Shelbourne v Derry City3-1
    Market aligned with main pickDrawBetMGM guide price · Model 19% vs implied 31% · edge -12.1 pts
    3.2
    Check odds @ 3.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Shelbourne to WinBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    2.8
    Check odds @ 2.8
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Derry City to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Draw, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premier Division

    Derry City20
    Played
    Shelbourne19
    Derry City1.1
    Avg goals for
    Shelbourne1.4
    Derry City1.2
    Avg goals against
    Shelbourne1.4
    Derry City5
    Clean sheets
    Shelbourne5
    Best odds for this sectionShelbourne to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 36% · edge +34.3 pts
    2.8
    Check odds @ 2.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Shelbourne Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
    2.02
    Check odds @ 2.02
    Derry City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    1.78
    Check odds @ 1.78
    Derry City to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Season data supports Shelbourne to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    5Shelbourne26196851
    6Derry City22204106-1
    Derry City sit in position 6, while Shelbourne sit in position 5, so table pressure belongs in the Draw assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Derry City Over 2.5
    60%Shelbourne Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Derry City sit at 20% and Shelbourne sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Derry City v Shelbourne prediction

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    Betting context

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