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Derby crestDerby
v
Wrexham crestWrexham

Championship | Sat 10 Oct, 15:00

Derby v Wrexham Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 01:16 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Championship clash features Wrexham visiting Derby, with Wrexham currently positioned 14th and Derby struggling near the relegation zone at 22nd. Wrexham have shown more attacking intent recently, averaging 1.2 goals per game compared to Derby's 0.8, while both teams have conceded over 1.4 goals per match. Wrexham's recent form includes 8 points from their last fixtures, indicating momentum that contrasts with Derby's 4 points. The match presents a tactical battle where Wrexham's slightly more effective offense and better league standing suggest they can capitalize on Derby's defensive vulnerabilities.

BT4Y best bet

Wrexham to Win

  • Wrexham holds a higher league position and better recent form than Derby.
  • Wrexham averages 1.2 goals per game, outscoring Derby's 0.8 average.
  • Derby concedes 1.4 goals per match, slightly less than Wrexham's 1.6 but with weaker attack.
  • Moore is a notable goal threat with 3 goals and 1.53 shots on target per 90 minutes.
  • Derby generates more shots overall but with less efficiency in goal conversion.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Wrexham to win with a 59.8% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and league standing. Wrexham's attacking threat, led by K. Moore's goal-scoring and shot accuracy, combined with Derby's defensive struggles, underpins this view. The offer positive value, as the implied chance is only 38.2%, indicating a strong edge. While Derby creates more shots, their lower goal output and points tally reduce their winning probability. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Win Probability59.8%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance53.2% model chance vs 38.2% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Value Edge53.2% model chance vs 38.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsWrexham 8 vs Derby 4
Positive
Goal Scoring RateWrexham 1.2 vs Derby 0.8
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Wrexham's better form and league position, combined with their attacking efficiency led by K. Moore, make them the favored side to claim victory. Derby's struggles in front of goal and lower points tally suggest they will find it difficult to contain Wrexham's offense and secure a positive result.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Wrexham's attacking edge and recent momentum position them well to exploit Derby's defensive weaknesses in this Championship encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Wrexham to Win evidence

Wrexham holds a higher league position and better recent form than Derby.

Wrexham averages 1.2 goals per game, outscoring Derby's 0.8 average.

Derby concedes 1.4 goals per match, slightly less than Wrexham's 1.6 but with weaker attack.

Moore is a notable goal threat with 3 goals and 1.53 shots on target per 90 minutes.

What To Watch In The Data

Wrexham to Win notes

  • In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored were 2.5 per game, indicating a moderate scoring tempo.
  • Wrexham's higher over 2.5 goals rate (60%) compared to Derby's 40% suggests Wrexham's matches tend to be more open and goal-rich, supporting the potential for a dynamic attacking display in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Derby0.8
Avg goals scored
Wrexham1.2
Derby1.4
Avg goals conceded
Wrexham1.6
Derby40%
BTTS rate
Wrexham40%
Derby40%
Over 2.5 goals
Wrexham60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 72% vs implied 75% · edge -3.4 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 36%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams have moderate goal-scoring and conceding rates, with Wrexham averaging 1.2 goals and Derby 0.8. Both teams to score rates stand at 40%, indicating a cautious approach in attack or defensive solidity. The average goals per match in their head-to-head is 2.5, suggesting a balanced goal environment where scoring chances exist but may be limited by defensive setups.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Championship hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickWrexham to WinBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
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Wrexham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
The 53.2% for Wrexham to Win sits against roughly 38.2% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Wrexham have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 4 for Derby. Derby need sharper finishing but can exploit Wrexham's defensive lapses, shown by their 6-0 loss at West Ham.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Derby

DLLLW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 5L
19 Sep 2026A Burnley1-1
12 Sep 2026H Birmingham1-2
09 Sep 2026H West Brom0-1
05 Sep 2026A West Ham0-3
01 Sep 2026A Portsmouth2-0

Wrexham

WLDDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 2L
19 Sep 2026H Southampton2-1
11 Sep 2026A West Ham0-6
08 Sep 2026H Burnley1-1
05 Sep 2026A Swansea0-0
02 Sep 2026A Millwall3-0
Market aligned with main pickWrexham to WinBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
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Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Wrexham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Wrexham's recent form shows 8 points gained with a higher goal average, reflecting effective offensive execution and resilience. Derby's 4 points and lower scoring rate highlight struggles in converting chances and securing results. This form disparity suggests Wrexham enters the match with momentum and , increasing their likelihood of success.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Derby Over 2.5
60%Wrexham Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored were 2.5 per game, indicating a moderate scoring tempo. Wrexham's higher over 2.5 goals rate (60%) compared to Derby's 40% suggests Wrexham's matches tend to be more open and goal-rich, supporting the potential for a dynamic attacking display in this fixture.

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