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Deportivo Riestra crestDeportivo Riestra
v
Union Santa Fe crestUnion Santa Fe

Liga Profesional Argentina | Tue 20 Oct, 01:15

Deportivo Riestra v Union Santa Fe Stats

Data last updated: Tue 20 Oct 2026, 18:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Deportivo Riestra and Union Santa Fe meet in a Liga Profesional Argentina fixture where both teams have shown tendencies toward physical and contested matches. Deportivo Riestra concedes an average of 1.2 goals per game and has a moderate disciplinary record, while Union Santa Fe concedes more goals and averages higher yellow cards per match. The game is expected to be competitive with intensity in midfield battles and tactical fouls likely as both teams seek to control the tempo and limit opposition chances. This match could see a high card count given the aggressive play styles and recent form data.

BT4Y best bet

Over 4.5 Cards

  • Union Santa Fe averages 3.2 yellow cards per game, Deportivo Riestra 2.6, indicating a physical contest.
  • Both teams have moderate fouling rates with players like J. Goitía showing high card risk.
  • Recent matches show a combined average card count supporting Over 4.5 Cards.
  • The model estimates a 68% chance for Over 4.5 Cards, with positive value at 1.73 .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 4.5 Cards with a 68% chance, reflecting the teams' aggressive defensive styles and recent disciplinary records. Union Santa Fe's higher average yellows and Deportivo Riestra's fouling tendencies suggest sustained physicality. Player data highlights individuals with significant card risk, reinforcing the likelihood of multiple cautions. The offer positive value without price sensitivity, making this a solid pick based on tactical and statistical evidence.

Model Chance68% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+10.2 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance68% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+10.2 pts)
Positive
Value Edge68% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+10.2 pts)
Strong positive
Player Card RiskHigh for key midfielders
Positive
Team Fouling RatesModerate to high
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a physically intense match with both Deportivo Riestra and Union Santa Fe engaging in tactical fouling and midfield battles. The data shows both teams have players prone to bookings, and recent form supports a high card count. This match should see several cautions as discipline is tested in a competitive environment.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“This fixture’s disciplinary profile is shaped by aggressive midfield play and players with notable card risks, making Over 4.5 Cards a compelling angle given the tactical intensity expected.”

Key Data Signals

Over 4.5 Cards evidence

Union Santa Fe averages 3.2 yellow cards per game, Deportivo Riestra 2.6, indicating a physical contest.

Both teams have moderate fouling rates with players like J. Goitía showing high card risk.

Recent matches show a combined average card count supporting Over 4.5 Cards.

The model estimates a 68% chance for Over 4.5 Cards, with positive value at 1.73 .

What To Watch In The Data

Over 4.5 Cards notes

  • In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals were low, but disciplinary intensity was notable.
  • The trend over recent matches shows a propensity for physical contests with multiple cards, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals trend panel as an indicator of match tempo and aggression, which correlates with card accumulation.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Deportivo Riestra0.4
Avg goals scored
Union Santa Fe1
Deportivo Riestra1.2
Avg goals conceded
Union Santa Fe2.2
Deportivo Riestra40%
BTTS rate
Union Santa Fe60%
Deportivo Riestra20%
Over 2.5 goals
Union Santa Fe80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 41%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 23%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Both teams have low scoring averages but the focus here is on disciplinary trends. The moderate goal threat contrasts with aggressive defensive play, suggesting fouls and cards will be more influential than goals or BTTS outcomes in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Union Santa Fe to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Deportivo Riestra Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Union Santa Fe Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 41%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Deportivo Riestra to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3
Check odds @ 3
The 68% for Over 4.5 Cards sits against roughly 57.8% implied by the current price (+10.2 pts). Union Santa Fe have the higher yellow-card average at 3.2, while Deportivo Riestra sit at 2.6.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Deportivo Riestra

LDDLD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 5D 4L
11 Oct 2026A San Lorenzo0-1
05 Oct 2026H Central Cordoba de Santiago1-1
19 Sep 2026A Gimnasia M.0-0
14 Sep 2026H Lanus0-3
04 Sep 2026A Platense1-1

Union Santa Fe

LLLLW
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 6L
10 Oct 2026H Defensa Y Justicia0-2
03 Oct 2026A Boca Juniors0-3
19 Sep 2026H Independiente1-2
13 Sep 2026A Talleres Cordoba1-2
08 Sep 2026H Instituto Cordoba3-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 59% · edge +11.5 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Union Santa Fe to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Deportivo Riestra Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Union Santa Fe Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Deportivo Riestra to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3
Check odds @ 3
Recent form data shows both teams averaging multiple yellow cards per match, with Union Santa Fe particularly prone to bookings. This trend supports the expectation of Over 4.5 Cards as both sides maintain aggressive defensive approaches in current matches.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Deportivo Riestra Over 2.5
80%Union Santa Fe Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals were low, but disciplinary intensity was notable. The trend over recent matches shows a propensity for physical contests with multiple cards, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals trend panel as an indicator of match tempo and aggression, which correlates with card accumulation.

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