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Deportivo La Guaira crestDeportivo La Guaira
v
Bolívar crestBolívar

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Wed 06 May, 23:00

Deportivo La Guaira v Bolívar Stats

Data last updated: Sat 13 Jun 2026, 08:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Deportivo La Guaira face Bolívar in CONMEBOL Libertadores on Wed 06 May, 23:00. Deportivo La Guaira come in with 2 recent points and 0.67 goals per match, while Bolívar have 4 points and 1 goals per match in the same lens. In this competition context, game state, selection calls and recent rhythm matter more than a simple table position.

BT4Y best bet

Bolívar to Win

  • At 2.7, Bolívar Win implies roughly 37%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 57%.
  • Bolívar have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 2 for Deportivo La Guaira.
  • Bolívar have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded per match, which helps the Bolívar Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 57% for Bolívar Win sits against roughly 37% implied by the current price. Bolívar have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 2 for Deportivo La Guaira.

Model chance vs price57% model chance against roughly 37% implied
Strong positive
Bolívar have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points.Visible data support
Positive
Bolívar have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Bolívar Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Bolívar have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 2 for Deportivo La Guaira. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Bolívar Win evidence

Bolívar have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 2 for Deportivo La Guaira.

Bolívar have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded per match, which helps the Bolívar Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Bolívar Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Deportivo La Guaira2.33
    Avg corners for
    Bolívar6
    Deportivo La Guaira11.33
    Avg total corners
    Bolívar9
    Deportivo La Guaira1.33
    Avg yellow cards
    Bolívar1
    Deportivo La Guaira5
    Avg shots
    Bolívar15.67
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 46% · edge +7.6 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
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    Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 55%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Deportivo La Guaira0.67
    Avg goals scored
    Bolívar1
    Deportivo La Guaira1.67
    Avg goals conceded
    Bolívar0.67
    Deportivo La Guaira67%
    BTTS rate
    Bolívar33%
    Deportivo La Guaira33%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Bolívar0%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 61% vs implied 51% · edge +10 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 43%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickBolívar to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 37% · edge +19.9 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
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    Bolívar Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 61%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 53%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Bolívar to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Deportivo La Guaira

    LDD
    Last 50W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 2D 1L
    30 Apr 2026A Independ. Rivadavia1-4
    15 Apr 2026A Bolívar1-1
    07 Apr 2026H Fluminense0-0

    Bolívar

    WDL
    Last 51W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 1L
    30 Apr 2026H Fluminense2-0
    15 Apr 2026H Deportivo La Guaira1-1
    07 Apr 2026A Independ. Rivadavia0-1
    Market aligned with main pickBolívar to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 37% · edge +19.9 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
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    Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 82%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Bolívar Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Deportivo La Guaira wins
    1Draws
    0Bolívar wins
    15 Apr 2026Bolívar v Deportivo La Guaira1-1
    Market aligned with main pickBolívar to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 37% · edge +19.9 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 61%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Bolívar to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    CONMEBOL Libertadores

    Deportivo La Guaira6
    Played
    Bolívar6
    Deportivo La Guaira1
    Avg goals for
    Bolívar1
    Deportivo La Guaira2.2
    Avg goals against
    Bolívar1.3
    Deportivo La Guaira1
    Clean sheets
    Bolívar1
    Market aligned with main pickBolívar to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 37% · edge +19.9 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Bolívar Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Season data supports Bolívar to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    3Bolívar56123-2
    4Deportivo La Guaira36033-7
    CONMEBOL Libertadores standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    33%Deportivo La Guaira Over 2.5
    0%Bolívar Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Deportivo La Guaira sit at 33% and Bolívar sit at 0% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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    Betting context

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