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Deportes Tolima crestDeportes Tolima
v
Deportivo Pasto crestDeportivo Pasto

Primera A | Mon 26 Oct, 01:15

Deportes Tolima v Deportivo Pasto Stats

Data last updated: Mon 26 Oct 2026, 17:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Primera A fixture features Deportes Tolima hosting Deportivo Pasto in a contest where Deportivo Pasto aims to avoid defeat and secure valuable points. Deportes Tolima sits mid-table with 20 points, while Deportivo Pasto struggles near the bottom with 9 points, increasing the away side's motivation to secure at least a draw. Deportivo Pasto's recent form shows defensive resilience despite limited goal scoring, while Deportes Tolima has a more potent attack but also concedes frequently. The tactical battle will likely hinge on Deportivo Pasto's ability to absorb pressure and capitalize on counterattacks, making the double chance on Deportivo Pasto a compelling option.

BT4Y best bet

Deportivo Pasto or Draw

  • Deportivo Pasto has a 68.6% for double chance (Draw or Win) with positive value at 2.62 .
  • Deportes Tolima averages 13.4 shots per game versus Deportivo Pasto's 10.8, indicating offensive pressure from Tolima.
  • Deportivo Pasto's recent form shows better points per game (4) compared to Deportes Tolima (3) in their last matches.
  • Deportes Tolima concedes 1.4 goals per game, matching Deportivo Pasto's defensive record, suggesting a balanced defensive contest.
  • Deportivo Pasto's top players like A. Estupiñán and J. Bernal provide attacking threat despite overall low scoring rates.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Deportivo Pasto or Draw with a 68.6% chance, reflecting Deportivo Pasto's recent form improvement and defensive solidity despite their low scoring. Deportes Tolima's higher offensive output is offset by defensive vulnerabilities, making a Tolima win less certain. The at 2.62 offer positive value given the implied chance is only 38.2%. Deportivo Pasto's key attackers, notably A. Estupiñán with 13 goals and J. Bernal's high shot involvement, provide a threat that supports the double chance. The model at 78% reinforces this as a solid selection without price warnings.

Model Chance26.8% model chance vs 11.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance26.8% model chance vs 11.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsDeportivo Pasto 4 vs Deportes Tolima 3
Positive
Defensive RecordsBoth concede 1.4 goals per game
Neutral
Key Player ThreatA. Estupiñán 13 goals, J. Bernal 3.75 SOT/90
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Deportivo Pasto or Draw is a tactically sound pick given Deportivo Pasto's recent form uptick and defensive discipline. While Deportes Tolima applies more offensive pressure, their defensive concessions and inconsistent form make a Tolima win uncertain. Deportivo Pasto's ability to frustrate and counterattack, led by Estupiñán and Bernal, supports the double chance as a prudent choice.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and player impact

“Deportivo Pasto's defensive organization combined with key attacking players like Estupiñán creates a balanced threat that justifies backing them not to lose, especially given Deportes Tolima's defensive lapses.”

Key Data Signals

Deportivo Pasto or Draw evidence

Deportivo Pasto has a 68.6% for double chance (Draw or Win) with positive value at 2.62 .

Deportes Tolima averages 13.4 shots per game versus Deportivo Pasto's 10.8, indicating offensive pressure from Tolima.

Deportivo Pasto's recent form shows better points per game (4) compared to Deportes Tolima (3) in their last matches.

Deportes Tolima concedes 1.4 goals per game, matching Deportivo Pasto's defensive record, suggesting a balanced defensive contest.

What To Watch In The Data

Deportivo Pasto or Draw notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.7, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Recent trends suggest a balanced tempo with neither side dominating, supporting a cautious approach with a double chance on Deportivo Pasto to avoid defeat.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Deportes Tolima1
Avg goals scored
Deportivo Pasto0.2
Deportes Tolima1.4
Avg goals conceded
Deportivo Pasto1.4
Deportes Tolima60%
BTTS rate
Deportivo Pasto0%
Deportes Tolima60%
Over 2.5 goals
Deportivo Pasto40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 64% · edge -3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 33%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams have similar defensive records conceding 1.4 goals per game, but Deportivo Pasto's low scoring (0.2 goals per game) contrasts with Deportes Tolima's higher attack. BTTS is unlikely given Pasto's scoring struggles, suggesting a low-scoring match with potential for a draw or narrow win.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionDeportivo Pasto Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.65
Check odds @ 4.65
Load more odds for this section
Deportivo Pasto to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
8.5
Check odds @ 8.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 40%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Deportes Tolima Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 55%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
The 26.8% for Deportivo Pasto or Draw sits against roughly 11.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts).
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Deportes Tolima

LLDDD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
18 Oct 2026A Águilas Doradas1-2
11 Oct 2026A Jaguares2-3
09 Oct 2026A Atletico Nacional0-0
03 Oct 2026H Chico0-0
28 Sep 2026A Fortaleza FC2-2

Deportivo Pasto

LLDLW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
23 Oct 2026A Atletico Nacional0-3
20 Oct 2026H Alianza Valledupar0-1
04 Oct 2026H Fortaleza FC0-0
26 Sep 2026A Chico0-3
20 Sep 2026H Once Caldas1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Deportivo Pasto Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 37%
4.65
Check odds @ 4.65
Deportivo Pasto to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
8.5
Check odds @ 8.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
Deportes Tolima Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 55%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Deportes Tolima to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Recent form favors Deportivo Pasto slightly, with 4 points in recent matches compared to Deportes Tolima's 3. Pasto's improved defensive performances and ability to grind results contrast with Tolima's more inconsistent output, supporting the double chance on Pasto to avoid defeat.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Deportes Tolima Over 2.5
40%Deportivo Pasto Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.7, indicating moderate scoring. Recent trends suggest a balanced tempo with neither side dominating, supporting a cautious approach with a double chance on Deportivo Pasto to avoid defeat.

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