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Denmark crestDenmark
v
Portugal crestPortugal

UEFA Nations League | Thu 01 Oct, 19:45

Denmark v Portugal Stats

Data last updated: Thu 22 Oct 2026, 01:17 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Denmark face Portugal in UEFA Nations League on Thu 01 Oct, 19:45. Portugal’s perfect Nations League start and comfort in tight matches support backing them on Asian Handicap -0.25. The 1-2 correct score fits Portugal’s pattern of narrow wins and Denmark’s ability to score, supported by key players returning.

BT4Y match pick

Portugal Asian Handicap -0

  • At 1/1, Portugal Asian Handicap -0 implies roughly 50%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 48%.
  • The market’s half-stake refund on draws offers some protection against Denmark’s home resilience.
  • Portugal have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 3 for Denmark.
  • Portugal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Portugal Asian Handicap -0 angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Denmark sit 2 in the table, while Portugal sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 48% for Portugal Asian Handicap -0 sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price. Portugal have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 3 for Denmark. The market’s half-stake refund on draws offers some protection against Denmark’s home resilience.

Model chance vs price48% model chance against roughly 50% implied
Neutral
Portugal have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points.Visible data support
Positive
Portugal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
The market’s half-stake refund on draws offers some protection.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Portugal Win is the preferred angle because the market’s half-stake refund on draws offers some protection against Denmark’s home resilience. Portugal have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 3 for Denmark. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Portugal Asian Handicap -0 evidence

The market’s half-stake refund on draws offers some protection against Denmark’s home resilience.

Portugal have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 3 for Denmark.

Portugal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Portugal Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Denmark sit 2 in the table, while Portugal sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Portugal Asian Handicap -0 notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Denmark2
    Avg goals scored
    Portugal1.5
    Denmark1.5
    Avg goals conceded
    Portugal0.5
    Denmark50%
    BTTS rate
    Portugal50%
    Denmark50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Portugal50%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 64% · edge +3 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 50% for Denmark and 50% for Portugal, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Denmark

    WL
    Last 51W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 1L
    27 Sep 2026H Wales2-0
    24 Sep 2026A Norway2-3

    Portugal

    WW
    Last 52W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 0D 0L
    27 Sep 2026A Norway2-1
    24 Sep 2026H Wales1-0
    Market aligned with main pickPortugal to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 50% · edge -1.7 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
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    Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Portugal Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    UEFA Nations League fixtures and predictionsDenmark v Portugal predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickPortugal to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 50% · edge -1.7 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 70%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 71%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Portugal Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Portugal to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    50%Denmark Over 2.5
    50%Portugal Over 2.5
    4.33H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Denmark sit at 50% and Portugal sit at 50% with the H2H average at 4.33 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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