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Cusco crestCusco
v
Independiente Medellin crestIndependiente Medellin

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Thu 21 May, 03:00

Cusco v Independiente Medellin Stats

BT4Y best bet

Independiente Medellin to Win

  • At 3.2, Independiente Medellin to Win is priced at roughly 31% implied probability. Our model has it closer to 70%, so the current line is showing a +38.7-point value edge.
  • Cusco have a recent record of 0W-1D-3L, while Independiente Medellin come in at 2W-2D-1L across the same last-five lens.
  • The result profile supports the Independiente Medellin to Win angle: Cusco have taken 0 wins from their last 4 matches, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded.
  • The result profile supports the Independiente Medellin to Win angle: Independiente Medellin have taken 2 wins from their last 5 matches, with BTTS landing in 80% of that sample.
  • If the bookmaker is still close to 3.2, this is the market to check first because the data and the price are both pointing in the same direction.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionAway WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 31% · edge +38.7 pts
3.2
Bet HERE @ 3.2
Load more odds for this section
Away Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.98
Bet HERE @ 1.98
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.91
Bet HERE @ 1.91
Home Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.82
Bet HERE @ 1.82
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.2
Bet HERE @ 2.2
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 38%
1.85
Bet HERE @ 1.85
Home WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.4
Bet HERE @ 2.4
Key match trends

A quick read of the strongest visible indicators.

25%Cusco Over 2.5
40%Independiente Medellin Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
Recent form

Results and scoring shape from recent games.

Cusco

DLLL
Last 50W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 3L
06 May 2026H Estudiantes L.P.1-1
01 May 2026A Independiente Medellin0-1
14 Apr 2026A Estudiantes L.P.1-2
09 Apr 2026H Flamengo0-2

Independiente Medellin

WLDWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 1L
01 May 2026H Cusco1-0
17 Apr 2026A Flamengo1-4
09 Apr 2026H Estudiantes L.P.1-1
13 Mar 2026H Juventud2-1
06 Mar 2026A Juventud1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 31% · edge +38.7 pts
3.2
Bet HERE @ 3.2
Load more odds for this section
Away Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.98
Bet HERE @ 1.98
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.36
Bet HERE @ 1.36
Home Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.82
Bet HERE @ 1.82
Home WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.4
Bet HERE @ 2.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 19%
3.1
Bet HERE @ 3.1
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 48%
1.25
Bet HERE @ 1.25
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Goal-market data and related prices.

Cusco0.5
Avg goals scored
Independiente Medellin1.2
Cusco1.5
Avg goals conceded
Independiente Medellin1.4
Cusco50%
BTTS rate
Independiente Medellin80%
Cusco25%
Over 2.5 goals
Independiente Medellin40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 52% · edge +23.6 pts
1.91
Bet HERE @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.65
Bet HERE @ 1.65
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
4
Bet HERE @ 4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.2
Bet HERE @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.36
Bet HERE @ 1.36
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.91
Bet HERE @ 1.91
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and related markets.

0Cusco wins
0Draws
1Independiente Medellin wins
01 May 2026Independiente Medellin v Cusco1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 31% · edge +38.7 pts
3.2
Bet HERE @ 3.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.91
Bet HERE @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.2
Bet HERE @ 2.2
Home WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.4
Bet HERE @ 2.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 19%
3.1
Bet HERE @ 3.1
Corners, cards and shots

Detailed stat markets where available.

Cusco2.25
Avg corners for
Independiente Medellin5.2
Cusco7.25
Avg total corners
Independiente Medellin8
Cusco2
Avg yellow cards
Independiente Medellin2.2
Cusco9.25
Avg shots
Independiente Medellin12
Best odds for this sectionOver 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.2
Bet HERE @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 38%
1.85
Bet HERE @ 1.85
Player stats

Player props and player-level signals.

Best player angleH. Palacios Anytime GoalscorerH. Palacios · 2 goals · 1.88 SOT/90
79/100
Bet HERE
Load more player angles
F. Chaverra 1+ Shot On TargetF. Chaverra · 2.12 shots on target/90
84/100
Bet HERE
F. Chaverra 2+ ShotsF. Chaverra · 4.24 shots/90
82/100
Bet HERE
I. Colman To Assist / Key Pass AngleI. Colman · 0 assists · 5.29 key passes/90
69/100
Bet HERE
F. Chaverra To Be FouledF. Chaverra · 2.38 fouls won/90
72/100
Bet HERE
E. Larrosa Card RiskE. Larrosa · 1 yellows · 4.23 fouls/90
80/100
Bet HERE
H. Palacios
H. PalaciosIndependiente Medellin · Defender
Goal threat73/100
Shots /902.36
SOT /901.88
F. Chaverra
F. ChaverraIndependiente Medellin · Midfielder
Goal threat64/100
Shots /904.24
SOT /902.12
Y. González
Y. GonzálezIndependiente Medellin · Attacker
Goal threat54/100
Shots /902.45
SOT /901.47
I. Colman
I. ColmanCusco · Midfielder
Goal threat40/100
Shots /904.24
SOT /902.12
L. Berrío
L. BerríoIndependiente Medellin · Attacker
Goal threat13/100
Shots /902.61
SOT /900
E. Larrosa
E. LarrosaIndependiente Medellin · Attacker
Goal threat36/100
Shots /901.92
SOT /900.77
M. Palacios
M. PalaciosIndependiente Medellin · Defender
Goal threat1/100
Shots /900
SOT /900
Season team stats

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Cusco4
Played
Independiente Medellin7
Cusco0.5
Avg goals for
Independiente Medellin1.1
Cusco1.5
Avg goals against
Independiente Medellin1.1
Cusco0
Clean sheets
Independiente Medellin2
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 31% · edge +38.7 pts
3.2
Bet HERE @ 3.2
Load more odds for this section
Away Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.98
Bet HERE @ 1.98
Home Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.82
Bet HERE @ 1.82
Home WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.4
Bet HERE @ 2.4
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Independiente Medellin43111-2
4Cusco14013-4

Next step

Betting context

Use the best-bet case above as the starting point, then check the live odds and the full prediction before staking.

Football Stats, Match Data & Daily Betting Analysis

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Key Betting Markets Covered

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