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Cuarte crestCuarte
v
Girona crestGirona

Copa del Rey | Tue 27 Oct, 17:30

Cuarte v Girona Stats

Data last updated: Mon 26 Oct 2026, 08:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Copa del Rey fixture features Cuarte facing Girona in a match where both sides are likely to approach cautiously given the knockout stakes. Girona, with a more established squad, will look to control possession and limit risks, while Cuarte, as the underdog, may prioritize defensive solidity. Limited recent form data and the nature of cup ties suggest a tactical battle with a focus on containment rather than open attacking play, setting the stage for a low-scoring encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Copa del Rey knockout format encourages cautious tactics and defensive focus.
  • Limited recent form data increases uncertainty, favoring conservative scoring expectations.
  • Girona's squad depth suggests control and measured attacking rather than high-risk offense.
  • Historical data shows no prior meetings, adding to unpredictability in scoring patterns.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 54% chance, reflecting the cautious tactical setup typical in early-round cup matches. The implied of 2.35 offer positive value versus the 42.6% market chance, supporting a standard stake. Both teams have limited recent data, but Girona's balanced attack and defensive discipline, combined with Cuarte's underdog status, point to a match where goals may be scarce. This aligns with the model's moderate in a low-scoring outcome.

Model Chance54% model chance vs 42.6% implied (+11.4 pts)
Positive
Implied Market Chance54% model chance vs 42.6% implied (+11.4 pts)
Positive
Value Edge54% model chance vs 42.6% implied (+11.4 pts)
Positive
Data QualityLimited data for both teams
Neutral
Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and data-driven low-scoring prediction

“This fixture's knockout context and squad profiles suggest a tactical chess match where both sides prioritize defensive organization, making a low-scoring game the most logical outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Copa del Rey knockout format encourages cautious tactics and defensive focus.

Limited recent form data increases uncertainty, favoring conservative scoring expectations.

Girona's squad depth suggests control and measured attacking rather than high-risk offense.

Historical data shows no prior meetings, adding to unpredictability in scoring patterns.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last five matches in similar cup contexts, teams often adopt a cautious tempo, resulting in lower goal totals.
  • The absence of H2H data means trends rely on competition patterns, which favor under 2.5 goals due to defensive prioritization and risk aversion in knockout ties.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 40% · edge +10 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Girona to WinBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 14%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
Cuarte to WinBet365 guide price · model 8%
19
Check odds @ 19
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 54% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 42.6% implied by the current price (+11.4 pts).
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Cuarte Over 2.5
-Girona Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches in similar cup contexts, teams often adopt a cautious tempo, resulting in lower goal totals. The absence of H2H data means trends rely on competition patterns, which favor under 2.5 goals due to defensive prioritization and risk aversion in knockout ties.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cuarte-
Avg goals scored
Girona-
Cuarte-
Avg goals conceded
Girona-
Cuarte-
BTTS rate
Girona-
Cuarte-
Over 2.5 goals
Girona-
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 43% · edge +11.4 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Given the absence of historical meetings and limited recent form data, the goals and BTTS outlook leans towards fewer goals. Girona's defensive discipline and Cuarte's underdog status suggest both teams may not score, supporting a low-scoring match with limited goalmouth action.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cuarte

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Cuarte yet.

Girona

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Girona yet.

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 33% vs implied 18% · edge +15 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Load more odds for this section
Girona to WinBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.02
Check odds @ 1.02
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 14%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
Cuarte to WinBet365 guide price · model 8%
19
Check odds @ 19
Recent form data is scarce for both teams, but the knockout nature of the Copa del Rey typically encourages conservative play. Girona's consistent defensive performances in other competitions hint at a low-scoring game, while Cuarte's underdog position suggests a focus on containment rather than open attacking.

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