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Crewe crestCrewe
v
Rochdale crestRochdale

League Two | Sat 17 Oct, 15:00

Crewe v Rochdale Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 01:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Crewe and Rochdale meet in a League Two clash where both teams have shown disciplined defensive displays this season. Crewe ranks third with 18 points, conceding just 0.8 goals per game, while Rochdale sits tenth with a stingy 0.4 goals conceded per match. Both sides have a low over 2.5 goals rate of 20%, reflecting cautious tactics and structured defenses. Recent form data highlights tight contests with limited goal-scoring, setting the stage for a tactical battle focused on control rather than open attacking play.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Crewe concedes only 0.8 goals per game, indicating strong defensive organization.
  • Rochdale allows just 0.4 goals per match, emphasizing defensive solidity.
  • Both teams have a low 20% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals this season.
  • Recent form shows Crewe scoring 1.4 goals and Rochdale 1.2 goals per game, supporting a low-scoring outlook.
  • H2H average goals are high but recent defensive form suggests fewer goals this time.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 61.4% chance, reflecting both teams' defensive strengths and low scoring rates. Crewe and Rochdale's combined low over 2.5 goals rate (20% each) and recent form with modest goal tallies support a controlled, low-scoring match. The price at 1.95 offers positive value given the implied chance is only 51.3%. This pick aligns with the tactical setup and recent defensive performances, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible selection for this fixture.

Model Probability61.4% model chance vs 51.3% implied (+10.1 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Goals DataCrewe 1.4, Rochdale 1.2 goals per game
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals Rate20% for both teams
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance61.4% model chance vs 51.3% implied (+10.1 pts)
Strong positive
H2H Average Goals3.67 goals per game, higher but less relevant
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a logical call given Crewe and Rochdale's defensive discipline and low scoring averages this season. Both teams prioritize structure and have kept tight scorelines recently. This tactical caution combined with their modest attacking output suggests a match unlikely to produce many goals.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and statistical analysis

“This fixture features two defensively sound teams with limited attacking firepower, making a low-scoring game the most probable outcome. The data clearly supports a cautious approach to goals.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Crewe concedes only 0.8 goals per game, indicating strong defensive organization.

Rochdale allows just 0.4 goals per match, emphasizing defensive solidity.

Both teams have a low 20% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals this season.

Recent form shows Crewe scoring 1.4 goals and Rochdale 1.2 goals per game, supporting a low-scoring outlook.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 3.67, indicating historically open games.
  • However, recent season trends show both teams favor defensive control, suggesting this fixture may deviate from past high-scoring encounters and lean towards fewer goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Crewe1.4
Avg goals scored
Rochdale1.2
Crewe0.8
Avg goals conceded
Rochdale0.4
Crewe80%
BTTS rate
Rochdale40%
Crewe20%
Over 2.5 goals
Rochdale20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 51% · edge +10.1 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 34%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams show contrasting BTTS rates: Crewe at 80% and Rochdale at 40%, but their low scoring averages and defensive records suggest a controlled game with limited goal exchanges. The likelihood is for fewer goals and possibly only one side scoring, aligning with Under 2.5 Goals.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more League Two analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Crewe

WWDDD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 6D 0L
10 Oct 2026A Swindon Town1-0
03 Oct 2026H Bristol Rovers3-1
26 Sep 2026A Rotherham1-1
19 Sep 2026H Shrewsbury1-1
12 Sep 2026A Colchester1-1

Rochdale

DWWWD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
10 Oct 2026A Tranmere1-1
03 Oct 2026H Swindon Town1-0
26 Sep 2026A Fleetwood Town2-1
19 Sep 2026H Oldham2-0
12 Sep 2026A Walsall0-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Rochdale Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Rochdale to WinBetfred guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
DrawBetUK guide price · model 27%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 61%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Crewe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Crewe to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Recent form data shows Crewe scoring 1.4 goals and conceding 0.8 per game, while Rochdale scores 1.2 and concedes only 0.4. Both teams have a 20% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, reinforcing a trend of low-scoring encounters and defensive solidity in their latest performances.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 58% · edge +12.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Rochdale Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Rochdale to WinBetfred guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
DrawBetUK guide price · model 27%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Crewe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
The 61.4% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 51.3% implied by the current price (+10.1 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Crewe and 20% for Rochdale, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Crewe Over 2.5
20%Rochdale Over 2.5
3.67H2H avg goals
Over the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 3.67, indicating historically open games. However, recent season trends show both teams favor defensive control, suggesting this fixture may deviate from past high-scoring encounters and lean towards fewer goals.

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